The left gets room to breathe in a fractured right
Em Minas Gerais, onde o poder se prepara para mudar de mãos, o vice-governador Mateus Simões já governa antes de governar — articulando alianças, pressionando rivais e tentando convencer a direita de que a unidade vale mais do que a ambição individual. A candidatura do senador Cleitinho representa não apenas uma disputa eleitoral, mas uma tensão filosófica mais antiga: quando o interesse coletivo de um campo político deve prevalecer sobre a autonomia de cada um de seus membros? Simões aposta que a aritmética eleitoral responderá a essa pergunta antes que as urnas precisem fazê-lo.
- A candidatura de Cleitinho ao governo mineiro ameaça rachar o voto da direita e abrir caminho para a esquerda chegar ao segundo turno — um cenário que Simões descreve como catastrófico.
- Simões, que ainda é vice-governador, já age como candidato: montou uma coligação de nove partidos e viajou ao norte do estado para consolidar apoios antes mesmo de assumir o Executivo.
- A pressão sobre Cleitinho é velada mas inequívoca — Simões usa a linguagem da 'responsabilidade' e da 'sensibilidade' para dizer, sem dizer, que o senador deveria desistir.
- Com 72% do eleitorado ainda sem opinião formada, Simões aposta que a posse em 22 de março mudará sua visibilidade e reposicionará a corrida eleitoral.
- A escolha do vice fica nas mãos de Zema, com três nomes do Novo em análise — entre eles, o irmão do próprio Cleitinho, o que adiciona uma camada de ironia política ao cenário.
Mateus Simões ainda não é governador, mas já se comporta como um. Em visita a Montes Claros no dia 6 de março, o vice-governador deixou claro que espera que o senador Cleitinho abandone sua própria candidatura ao Executivo mineiro — uma disputa que, na avaliação de Simões, só serviria para dividir a direita e facilitar a entrada da esquerda no segundo turno.
Simões assume o governo em 22 de março, quando Romeu Zema parte para disputar a presidência. Ele já conta com uma coligação de nove partidos, incluindo o PL e o Novo, e vê na candidatura de Cleitinho uma ameaça real a essa arquitetura. O argumento é direto: dois candidatos de direita dividem votos, e o resultado seria entregar Minas ao PT.
Cleitinho, senador no meio do mandato, pode anunciar uma candidatura sem grandes custos políticos — o que Simões chamou de 'decisão barata'. Mas Simões expressou confiança de que, até maio, o senador chegaria à mesma conclusão que o campo conservador já havia tirado: que caminhar junto é mais eficaz do que caminhar separado.
Sobre o vice, Simões delegou inteiramente a decisão a Zema. Três nomes do Novo estão em consideração — Tiago Mitraud, Fernanda Altoé e Gleidson Azevedo, prefeito de Divinópolis e irmão de Cleitinho. A escolha, porém, só virá após o cenário nacional se definir.
Quanto às pesquisas desfavoráveis, Simões minimizou: 72% dos eleitores ainda não escolheram candidato, e muitos dos que já escolheram citam nomes que nem sequer concorrerão ao governo. A posse, ele sugeriu, mudará esse quadro — e com ela, a percepção de que ele é o herdeiro político escolhido por Zema.
Mateus Simões is about to become governor of Minas Gerais, and he is already working to consolidate the right-wing vote behind his candidacy. On March 6, speaking in Montes Claros in the state's north, the vice-governor made clear that he expects Senator Cleitinho to step aside from his own gubernatorial bid—a move Simões sees as essential to prevent the left from advancing to a second-round runoff.
Simões takes office on March 22, when current governor Romeu Zema departs to run for president. He has already assembled a coalition of nine parties, including the PL and Zema's own Novo party, to support his campaign. But the emergence of Cleitinho as a rival candidate threatens to fracture that coalition. Simões framed the problem in stark terms: if both he and Cleitinho run, the right-wing vote splits, and the left—represented by Lula—could slip into the second round. That outcome, Simões said, would be catastrophic, essentially handing Minas Gerais to the Workers' Party.
Cleitinho is a senator mid-term, which in political parlance means his decision to run or not is what Simões called a "cheap decision"—it costs him little to announce a candidacy that he may later abandon. Simões expressed confidence that by May, Cleitinho would reach the same conclusion the broader right had already reached: that they should walk together, not separately. The language was diplomatic but the pressure unmistakable. Simões said he held "the expectation" that Cleitinho possessed the "responsibility and sensitivity" to understand the math.
On the question of his running mate, Simões deferred entirely to Zema. The governor will choose, Simões said, and he trusts that choice because Zema chose him. Three names from the Novo party are under consideration: Tiago Mitraud, a former federal deputy; Fernanda Altoé, a highly voted city councilor in Belo Horizonte; and Gleidson Azevedo, the mayor of Divinópolis and brother of Cleitinho. Any of the three would make an excellent vice, Simões said, though he left open the possibility that Zema might select someone else entirely. That decision, he indicated, would come only after the national political landscape clarified—a timeline he did not specify.
When pressed on his low polling numbers, Simões pointed out that 72 percent of Minas voters in the latest survey had not yet decided how they would vote. Of the 28 percent who had, many were still naming Lula or Zema as their choice for governor, neither of whom is actually running for that office. The electorate, in other words, was not yet paying attention. Once he assumed the governorship on March 22, Simões suggested, that would change. People would understand he was Zema's chosen successor, and the race would take on new shape.
On his relationship with the national PSD leadership, Simões reported smooth sailing. When party president Gilberto Kassab came to Minas for Simões's formal party affiliation, Kassab himself announced their agreement publicly. In Minas, Simões said, the PSD follows Zema's leadership. The party's deputies, state legislators, and gubernatorial slate would move in the direction Zema moved. The coalition, in other words, was already locked in—as long as Cleitinho did not upset the arrangement.
Citas Notables
I have the expectation that Senator Cleitinho has the responsibility and sensitivity to understand that both of us running at the same time means the possibility of the left reaching the second round— Mateus Simões
By May, I expect the senator will reach the conclusion that most of the right has already reached—that we should walk together— Mateus Simões
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Cleitinho's candidacy threaten you so much? He's a senator, not a sitting governor.
Because in a three-way race, the vote fragments. If the right splits between me and him, the left gets room to breathe. That's how second rounds happen.
But he's mid-term. Doesn't he have time to change his mind?
Exactly. That's what I'm counting on. A senator can announce and then quietly step back without much cost to his actual job. I'm betting he does.
What if he doesn't? What if he stays in the race?
Then we lose the advantage we have now. The right is unified behind me. If that breaks, we hand Minas to Lula on a platter.
You're taking office in two weeks. Why not just wait and see how the race develops?
Because waiting is a luxury we don't have. The longer Cleitinho stays in, the more real his candidacy becomes. Better to settle this now, while it's still just talk.
And if he refuses to listen to your expectations?
Then we have a problem. But I don't think it comes to that. The math is too obvious. By May, he'll see it.
What about your vice? Why is Zema choosing, not you?
Because Zema is the one who put me in this position. I trust his judgment. And frankly, the vice matters less than the coalition. Get that right, and the rest follows.