We're not attacking them. There's no shooting unless we're shot at first.
Three months after the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury in response to Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, Secretary of State Rubio has declared the campaign's primary objectives met — yet the peace he invokes remains conditional, fragile, and dependent on the choices of an adversary that has not yet made them. The world's most critical oil passage is technically no longer a battlefield, but it is not yet a shipping lane either, as hundreds of vessels wait in limbo and the machinery of diplomacy, deterrence, and potential UN enforcement grinds slowly forward. History reminds us that the distance between the end of a campaign and the beginning of stability is often where the hardest work begins.
- Washington declared Operation Epic Fury complete, but pointedly refused to call the broader confrontation with Iran finished — leaving the region suspended between war and peace.
- Hundreds of commercial ships remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, held hostage not by active combat but by fear, insurance paralysis, and a threat that has not truly lifted.
- The UAE is still intercepting Iranian missiles and drones even as a ceasefire nominally holds, exposing the hollow ground beneath official declarations of de-escalation.
- The Pentagon's Project Freedom has managed to escort only two vessels through US-guarded routes, a meager return that underscores how far the crisis is from resolution.
- The UN Security Council is now weighing a Chapter VII resolution that could authorize sanctions or military force against Iran, dramatically raising the diplomatic and strategic stakes.
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stepped to the White House podium and announced the conclusion of Operation Epic Fury, the joint US-Israeli military campaign launched in late February after Iran effectively sealed the Strait of Hormuz and trapped hundreds of commercial vessels inside the Persian Gulf. He said the operation had met its objectives. He did not say the conflict was over.
The distinction was deliberate. Rubio's language signaled a shift from major offensive operations toward something harder to name — sustained pressure, defensive readiness, conditional peace. "We would prefer the path of peace," he told reporters, before making clear that peace depended entirely on what Iran chose to do next.
On the ground, or rather on the water, the picture remained grim. The Pentagon had transitioned to Project Freedom, a maritime escort operation designed to reopen shipping lanes. So far, only two commercial ships had successfully made the crossing. Hundreds more sat waiting, deterred by security fears, insurance complications, and the stubborn persistence of the underlying threat. Defense Secretary Hegseth acknowledged the preference for a peaceful outcome while making plain that American forces were prepared for the alternative.
The ceasefire negotiated weeks earlier technically held, but the region told a different story. The UAE reported intercepting Iranian missiles and drones on the same day Rubio spoke. CENTCOM maintained an elevated posture across the Gulf. Iranian officials denied responsibility for the strikes.
At the United Nations, the United States and Gulf states were pushing a new Security Council resolution invoking Chapter VII of the UN Charter — the enforcement chapter — which would demand Iran cease attacks on shipping and disclose the locations of sea mines allegedly laid near Hormuz. The inclusion of Chapter VII language meant sanctions or military action could follow Iranian non-compliance, adding a new layer of pressure to a situation already balanced on a knife's edge.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio stood at the White House podium on Tuesday and declared an end to Operation Epic Fury, the joint US-Israeli military campaign that had been running since late February. The operation, he said, had accomplished what it set out to do. But his announcement came with a careful caveat: he did not declare the conflict itself over, nor did he rule out the possibility of renewed fighting if circumstances deteriorated.
The distinction mattered. Rubio's framing represented a shift in how Washington was talking about its confrontation with Iran—away from the language of major offensive operations and toward something more ambiguous: sustained strategic pressure, defensive postures, conditional peace. "We're not cheering for an additional situation to occur," he told reporters. "We would prefer the path of peace." The qualifier hung in the air. That peace, he made clear, depended on Iranian behavior.
What triggered Operation Epic Fury in the first place was the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil normally flows. Iran had restricted passage and engaged in naval confrontations that effectively locked hundreds of commercial vessels inside the Persian Gulf. The United States and Israel responded with military force. Now, three months later, the major combat phase was over. But the underlying crisis—the reason the fighting started—remained unresolved.
Rubio insisted that whatever military activity continued in the region was purely defensive. "There's no shooting unless we're shot at first," he said. "We're not attacking them." The Pentagon had shifted to what it called Project Freedom, a maritime escort and surveillance operation meant to reopen shipping lanes. The results so far were meager. Only two commercial vessels had successfully transited the US-guarded route. Hundreds of others remained trapped, held back by insurance complications, security fears, and the simple fact that the underlying threat had not disappeared. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged the preference for peaceful resolution but made clear that American forces stood ready if the situation changed.
The ceasefire that had been negotiated weeks earlier technically remained in place. In practice, the region still resembled an active conflict zone. The United Arab Emirates reported on Tuesday that it was once again intercepting Iranian missiles and drones. CENTCOM maintained elevated force posture across the Gulf. Iranian military officials denied responsibility for the strikes. Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council was considering a new resolution, backed by the United States and Gulf states, that would demand Iran halt attacks on shipping and reveal the locations of sea mines allegedly laid around Hormuz. The proposed language included provisions under Chapter VII of the UN Charter—the enforcement chapter—which meant that sanctions or military action could theoretically follow if Iran refused to comply. That raised the diplomatic stakes considerably and suggested that Washington was preparing multiple pressure points simultaneously: military readiness, maritime operations, and now the possibility of UN-backed enforcement measures.
Notable Quotes
We're not cheering for an additional situation to occur. We would prefer the path of peace.— Secretary of State Marco Rubio
There's no shooting unless we're shot at first. We're not attacking them.— Secretary of State Marco Rubio
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
When Rubio said the operation was concluded, what did he actually mean? Did the fighting stop?
The major combat operations stopped, yes. But he was careful not to say the conflict itself was over. It's more like declaring victory in one phase while keeping your forces in position for the next one.
So the ceasefire is real?
Officially, yes. But the UAE is still intercepting Iranian missiles. The Pentagon is still running escort operations. It's a ceasefire that looks a lot like an active conflict zone if you're watching closely.
What about the shipping? Can merchants actually use the strait again?
Two vessels have made it through. Two. Hundreds are still stuck in the Gulf because insurance companies won't cover the risk and ship owners don't trust that the threat is really gone. The underlying problem—Iran's ability and willingness to disrupt traffic—hasn't been solved.
What's the UN resolution about?
It's demanding Iran stop attacking ships and reveal where it laid mines. But the real teeth are in the language—Chapter VII enforcement provisions. That means if Iran says no, sanctions or military action could follow. It's Washington layering pressure from multiple angles at once.
Does Rubio actually believe peace is possible?
He said they prefer the path of peace. But he also said it's conditional. That's the honest answer: peace exists only if Iran changes its behavior. Until then, American forces stay ready.