59 percent said he had done less than expected
Midway through his third term, President Lula finds himself governing a divided nation that has grown skeptical of his promises. A Datafolha survey conducted in mid-May 2025 reveals that only 30 percent of Brazilians view his government favorably, while a majority believe he has delivered less than expected — a quiet verdict on the distance between political hope and lived reality. The numbers do not signal collapse, but they trace a slow erosion: a presidency that began with goodwill and has since watched that goodwill narrow into partisan loyalty alone.
- Disapproval of Lula's government has settled at 39 percent — stubbornly close to the February peak triggered by the Pix monitoring controversy, suggesting the damage was not temporary.
- A majority of Brazilians — 51 percent — now disapprove of Lula personally, a threshold that marks a meaningful shift from the optimism that greeted his return to power.
- Fifty-nine percent of respondents say Lula has delivered less than expected, and nearly half see more defeats than victories in his administration, painting a picture of accumulated disappointment.
- The political center is thinning: Brazilians are increasingly sorting themselves into firm camps, with 68 percent of Lula's own voters still loyal while 75 percent of Bolsonaro supporters reject his government outright.
- The survey was completed before news emerged linking opposition figure Flávio Bolsonaro to a controversial banking figure, leaving open the question of whether the political landscape will shift before the next electoral cycle.
A Datafolha poll released in mid-May 2025 offers a sobering portrait of Lula's presidency at a crossroads. Thirty percent of Brazilians rate his government as good or excellent; 39 percent view it negatively. When asked about Lula himself, 45 percent approve and 51 percent do not — a personal disapproval figure that has only grown since his early days in office.
The shadow of February looms over these numbers. When the government's handling of Pix transaction monitoring sparked a public backlash, disapproval spiked to 41 percent. It has since eased only slightly, to 39 percent — still near that high-water mark of discontent. By contrast, the administration's best moment came in June 2023, when just 27 percent judged the government poorly. The distance between then and now tells its own story.
On the question of promises kept, Brazilians are unsparing: 59 percent say Lula has done less than expected, while only 13 percent believe he has exceeded their hopes. Nearly half see more losses than wins across his tenure — a sense of underperformance that runs through the data regardless of how the question is framed.
Yet the partisan divide remains absolute. Among his own voters, 68 percent still back the government enthusiastically. Among supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro, 75 percent reject it. Voters aligned with center-right and libertarian opposition figures fall somewhere between, but lean negative. The survey, which reached over 2,000 Brazilians before news broke of Bolsonaro's alleged ties to a defunct bank, captures a country where the middle ground is vanishing — and where more citizens, when pressed to choose, are choosing against.
The numbers tell a story of a presidency losing ground. In mid-May, a Datafolha survey found that just 30 percent of Brazilians rated President Lula's government as good or excellent, while 39 percent viewed it negatively—a figure that has barely budged since April. When asked directly about their approval of Lula himself, 45 percent said yes. Fifty-one percent said no. The gap between those who support him and those who don't has only widened.
The negative assessment has become the new normal. In February 2025, after the government's handling of Pix monitoring sparked public backlash, disapproval spiked to 41 percent. It has since settled at 39 percent—still near that peak, still a weight the administration carries. The best days came early, in June 2023, when only 27 percent judged the government's work as poor or very poor. That was three years ago. The trajectory since has been downward.
When Brazilians were asked whether Lula had delivered on his promises, the verdict was harsh. Fifty-nine percent said he had done less than expected. Twenty-three percent believed he had met their hopes. Only 13 percent thought he had exceeded them. On the question of victories versus defeats, 47 percent saw more losses than wins in his administration. Thirty-nine percent disagreed. The sense of underperformance cuts across the data like a fault line.
The partisan divide, however, is absolute. Among Lula's own voters, the government enjoys overwhelming support: 68 percent rate it as good or excellent, and just 1 percent call it poor or very poor. But among supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro, the opposition senator and potential presidential candidate, 75 percent view the government negatively. Only 3 percent see it positively. For voters backing Ronaldo Caiado of the center-right PSD, 44 percent judge the government harshly, while 18 percent approve. Romeu Zema's supporters, from the libertarian Novo party, split similarly: 47 percent negative, 6 percent positive.
The survey was conducted over two days in mid-May, before news broke linking Flávio Bolsonaro to Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of the now-defunct Banco Master. The poll reached 2,004 people aged 16 and older, with a margin of error of two percentage points. What emerges is a portrait of a government that has lost momentum among the general public while retaining the loyalty of its core base. The middle ground—those who see the administration as merely adequate—has shrunk. Brazilians are increasingly forced to choose a side, and more of them are choosing against.
Citações Notáveis
The negative assessment has remained stable between April and May, hovering near the 41 percent peak recorded in February 2025 after the Pix monitoring crisis.— Datafolha poll findings
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does a 39 percent negative rating matter if his own voters still back him so strongly?
Because those voters alone can't sustain a presidency. You need the persuadable middle, and that's where he's bleeding support. Fifty-nine percent think he's underdelivered. That's not a partisan number—that's the country talking.
The Pix crisis in February seems to have left a mark. Has anything improved since then?
Not really. The negative number dropped from 41 to 39 percent, but that's noise. It's stayed in that range for months. The damage stuck.
What about the people who say he's done less than expected? Are they angry, or just disappointed?
The data doesn't tell us the emotion, just the judgment. But 59 percent is a supermajority. That's not mild disappointment. That's a fundamental sense that the government hasn't delivered.
The partisan split is stunning—75 percent of Bolsonaro supporters disapprove. Is there any crossover?
Almost none. Three percent of Bolsonaro voters see the government positively. It's a closed loop. The real question is what happens with the Caiado and Zema voters—they're not locked in yet.
What does this mean for Lula's political future?
It means he's vulnerable. He can win reelection if turnout favors his base, but he can't afford to lose more ground in the middle. The next few months matter.