The Southeast has become the central arena of the campaign
A cinco dias das eleições presidenciais brasileiras, uma pesquisa Datafolha revela que Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva amplia sua vantagem sobre o presidente Jair Bolsonaro no Sudeste — região que concentra quase metade do eleitorado nacional e, por isso, funciona como espelho do destino político do país. O avanço de Lula entre mulheres e eleitores de baixa renda contrasta com a consolidação de Bolsonaro entre os evangélicos, desenhando um mapa eleitoral dividido por fé, gênero e renda. A democracia brasileira, mais uma vez, se decide nas tensões entre mundos que coexistem sem se reconhecer.
- Lula abre oito pontos de vantagem no Sudeste — 43% a 35% — numa região que sozinha representa 43% do eleitorado, tornando esse avanço potencialmente decisivo para o resultado de domingo.
- A simulação de primeiro turno coloca Lula em 50% dos votos válidos, exatamente no limiar necessário para evitar um segundo turno, mas a margem de erro de dois pontos mantém o resultado em aberto.
- Bolsonaro amplia para vinte pontos sua liderança entre evangélicos (50% a 30%), consolidando uma base motivada que pode compensar perdas em outros segmentos.
- Lula domina entre mulheres (50% a 29%) e entre os mais pobres (57% a 26%), grupos que juntos formam a espinha dorsal de sua campanha e respondem pela maior parte do eleitorado.
- As campanhas entram nos dias finais sabendo que o resultado depende de quem consegue converter intenção de voto em presença nas urnas — e a mobilização dos dois lados permanece intensa.
A cinco dias do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais brasileiras, uma pesquisa Datafolha encomendada pela Folha e pela TV Globo mostrou Lula abrindo vantagem sobre Bolsonaro no Sudeste. O ex-presidente passou a liderar por oito pontos percentuais na região — 43% contra 35% do incumbente —, uma diferença que havia sido de apenas cinco pontos na semana anterior. O peso do Sudeste no cenário eleitoral é difícil de exagerar: a região concentra 43% de todos os eleitores brasileiros, tornando-a o campo de batalha mais determinante da disputa.
O levantamento, realizado entre terça e quinta-feira com 6.800 eleitores em 332 municípios, apontou Lula com 50% dos votos válidos numa simulação de primeiro turno, ante 36% de Bolsonaro, 6% de Ciro Gomes e 5% de Simone Tebet. Cruzar esse limiar de 50% significaria vencer sem precisar de um segundo turno — uma possibilidade real, mas ainda incerta diante da margem de erro de dois pontos percentuais.
Os dados revelam um eleitorado profundamente segmentado. Bolsonaro consolidou sua liderança entre evangélicos, chegando a 50% nesse grupo enquanto Lula recuou para 30% — uma diferença de vinte pontos numa fatia que representa 26% do eleitorado nacional. Já Lula mantém domínio entre as mulheres, com 50% contra 29% do presidente, e entre os eleitores de renda mais baixa, onde alcança 57% frente a 26% de Bolsonaro. Esses dois grupos respondem, respectivamente, por 52% e metade da amostra pesquisada.
Nos dias que antecederam a votação, a equipe de Lula via nos números um sinal de que a vitória no primeiro turno estava ao alcance. Mas a consolidação bolsonarista entre os evangélicos indicava que o presidente ainda tinha uma base engajada e capaz de surpreender. O resultado final dependeria de quem conseguisse transformar intenção em voto — e, nessa corrida, cada ponto percentual carregava o peso de milhões de brasileiros.
Five days before Brazil's presidential election, a new Datafolha poll shows Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pulling away from incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the Southeast, the country's most consequential region. The former president now leads by eight percentage points in the Southeast—43 percent to Bolsonaro's 35 percent—a gap that widened from just five points the previous week. That shift matters because the Southeast is home to 43 percent of all Brazilian voters, making it the decisive battleground for both campaigns.
The poll, conducted between Tuesday and Thursday of that week and commissioned by Folha and TV Globo, surveyed 6,800 voters across 332 municipalities nationwide. It carries a margin of error of two percentage points. In a first-round simulation, Lula holds 50 percent of valid votes, Bolsonaro 36 percent, with Ciro Gomes at 6 percent and Simone Tebet at 5 percent. To win outright on Sunday without a runoff, a candidate needs more than half of all valid ballots cast—a threshold Lula appears positioned to cross, though nothing is certain in the final days.
Bolsonaro has consolidated his grip on evangelical voters, a constituency he has cultivated throughout the campaign. He maintains 50 percent support among evangelicals while Lula has slipped to 30 percent, widening the gap between them to twenty percentage points. This represents a net gain for the incumbent in a segment that comprises 26 percent of the electorate nationally. Catholics, by contrast, make up 52 percent of voters, though the poll did not break down their preferences by candidate in the material released.
Lula's strength lies elsewhere. Among women, who represent a majority of the electorate at 52 percent of the sample, he commands 50 percent support compared to Bolsonaro's 29 percent. That advantage has held steady or grown slightly—he gained one point from the previous week. Among the poorest voters, those earning up to two minimum wages monthly, Lula maintains 57 percent while Bolsonaro has edged up to 26 percent from 24 percent. This lower-income segment accounts for half the sample, underscoring its weight in the overall result.
The Southeast has become the central arena of the campaign precisely because of its size and the diversity of its electorate. Bolsonaro has worked to consolidate support among evangelical churches and their congregations, a strategy that has borne fruit in that specific demographic. Lula, meanwhile, has built his case around margins among women and lower-income Brazilians, groups that have historically anchored his political base. Both candidates understand that the region contains three of Brazil's largest voting blocs, making it impossible to win without performing strongly there.
As the election approached, Lula's team viewed these numbers as evidence that a first-round victory was within reach. The eight-point lead in the Southeast, combined with his national simulation showing 50 percent of valid votes, suggested momentum. Yet the path to an outright win remained uncertain. Turnout, last-minute shifts, and the actual mechanics of voting could still alter the outcome. Bolsonaro's consolidation among evangelicals showed that his base remained engaged and motivated, even as he lost ground in other quarters. The final days would test whether Lula's advantages among women and poorer voters could hold, or whether Bolsonaro could narrow the gap further.
Citas Notables
To win in the first round, a candidate needs more than half of all valid ballots cast— Electoral rules cited in Datafolha poll
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the Southeast matter so much more than other regions?
It's not just that it's large—it's that it contains São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais. Those three states alone hold nearly half the country's voters. You can lose everywhere else and still win if you win the Southeast decisively.
So Lula's eight-point lead there is essentially the election?
It's the strongest indicator, yes. But eight points is not insurmountable in the final week. Bolsonaro has shown he can move numbers in specific groups—he's proven that with evangelicals, where he's actually gained ground.
How does Bolsonaro gain ground with evangelicals while losing overall?
Because evangelicals are a concentrated bloc—26 percent of voters, highly organized through churches, and they vote. If you own 50 percent of that group, you're getting a disproportionate share of a reliable, motivated base. But that same focus means you're ceding ground elsewhere.
Like where?
Women. Lula has 50 percent of women; Bolsonaro has 29. That's not a gap—that's a chasm. Women are 52 percent of voters. The math is brutal for him there.
Can he close it in five days?
Unlikely. These are structural advantages, not soft opinions. Women's concerns about the economy, healthcare, safety—those don't shift in a week. Same with lower-income voters, where Lula leads 57 to 26.
So Lula wins?
The numbers suggest he should. But elections are not polls. Turnout matters. Motivation matters. And Bolsonaro's base is very motivated.