Flávio's rejection rate now exceeds Lula's—a threshold that poisons his image
Em democracias maduras, escândalos raramente destroem candidaturas de uma só vez — eles as corroem, ponto a ponto, pesquisa a pesquisa. No Brasil de 2026, o caso 'Dark Horse' fez exatamente isso: em sete dias, transformou um empate técnico entre Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro em uma vantagem de quatro pontos para o presidente, enquanto a taxa de rejeição do senador ultrapassou a do adversário pela primeira vez. A corrida presidencial, que parecia equilibrada, agora exige que a família Bolsonaro responda a uma pergunta que preferia não fazer: quem, afinal, deve carregar sua bandeira?
- O escândalo 'Dark Horse' — conversas vazadas entre Flávio Bolsonaro e o banqueiro Daniel Vorcaro — chegou como uma faísca em campo seco, derrubando dois pontos do senador e entregando dois a Lula em apenas uma semana.
- A rejeição de Flávio subiu para 46%, ultrapassando os 45% de Lula — um limiar simbólico que sinaliza que o dano já alcançou eleitores que poderiam tê-lo considerado.
- No primeiro turno, o colapso é ainda mais severo: Flávio caiu de 35% para 31%, enquanto Lula foi a 40%, transformando uma diferença de três pontos em uma vantagem de nove.
- A família Bolsonaro resiste à pressão para substituir Flávio, mas aliados, partidos de centro e o setor empresarial — que haviam se aproximado do senador — agora demonstram ceticismo crescente.
- Michelle Bolsonaro foi testada como alternativa e perderia para Lula por cinco pontos, mas sua rejeição de 31% é significativamente menor que a do enteado, mantendo-a como opção viável caso a família decida mudar de rota.
Uma semana de turbulência política alterou o equilíbrio da corrida presidencial brasileira de 2026. Pesquisa Datafolha divulgada na sexta-feira mostra o presidente Lula abrindo quatro pontos de vantagem sobre Flávio Bolsonaro num cenário de segundo turno — 47% a 43% —, revertendo o empate registrado sete dias antes. O movimento coincide com a eclosão do escândalo 'Dark Horse', que expôs conversas entre o senador e o banqueiro Daniel Vorcaro, do Master.
O impacto é imediato e mensurável. Flávio perdeu dois pontos; Lula ganhou dois. Mais do que o placar, porém, preocupa a rejeição: o senador chegou a 46%, superando os 45% do presidente — um sinal de que o escândalo contaminou sua imagem entre eleitores que ainda poderiam considerá-lo. O instituto também testou Michelle Bolsonaro como alternativa; ela marcou 43% contra 48% de Lula, com rejeição de apenas 31% — bem abaixo dos 46% do enteado.
No primeiro turno, o quadro é ainda mais grave para Flávio. Seu apoio desabou de 35% para 31% em uma semana, enquanto Lula subiu a 40%, ampliando a diferença de três para nove pontos. Entre os demais candidatos de direita, as variações foram marginais. O Datafolha ouviu 2.004 pessoas entre 20 e 22 de maio, com margem de erro de dois pontos percentuais. O que vem a seguir depende, em grande parte, de uma decisão que a família Bolsonaro ainda evita tomar.
A week of political turbulence has shifted the arithmetic of Brazil's 2026 presidential race. A Datafolha poll released Friday shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva opening a four-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff scenario—47 percent to 43 percent—a reversal from the previous week's dead heat. The movement follows the emergence of the "Dark Horse" scandal, which exposed conversations between Flávio, the senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, and Daniel Vorcaro, a banker at Master. The damage is measurable and immediate.
Just seven days earlier, Datafolha had recorded the two candidates locked at 45 percent each. That survey, however, had been conducted before the scandal broke; the interviews themselves predated the revelations. The new numbers tell a different story. Flávio dropped two points. Lula gained two. In the arithmetic of polling, that is a four-point swing—and in a close race, it is consequential. The former president's family has so far resisted calls to replace Flávio with another candidate, but the senator now faces skepticism from allies, centrist coalition parties, and business sectors that had previously warmed to his candidacy.
The damage extends beyond the head-to-head matchup. Flávio's rejection rate climbed to 46 percent, surpassing Lula's 45 percent—a symbolic threshold that suggests the scandal has poisoned his image among voters who might otherwise have considered him. Blank and null votes held steady at 9 percent, while undecided voters ticked up slightly from 1 to 2 percent. The institute also tested an alternative scenario featuring Michelle Bolsonaro, Flávio's stepmother and former first lady. She registered 43 percent against Lula's 48 percent, a five-point deficit that suggests she too would struggle in a general election, though her rejection rate of 31 percent is substantially lower than her stepson's.
The first-round picture is more dire for Flávio. His support collapsed from 35 percent to 31 percent in a single week, while Lula climbed to 40 percent—a nine-point gap where there had been three. Among other right-wing candidates, movement was marginal. Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Renan Santos of Missão each gained a point, landing at 4 and 3 percent respectively. Romeu Zema of Novo held at 3 percent, as did Samara Martins of UP. Augusto Cury, Cabo Daciolo, and Rui Costa Pimenta each registered 1 or 2 percent. Aldo Rebelo, who had appeared in the previous survey at 1 percent, was removed from the race by his own party, which now intends to nominate Joaquim Barbosa instead.
Datafolha conducted 2,004 interviews between May 20 and 22. The margin of error is two percentage points in either direction, with a 95 percent confidence level. The poll is registered with the Electoral Justice system under protocol BR-07489/2026. What happens next depends partly on whether the Bolsonaro family stands by Flávio or pivots to Michelle—and whether the scandal's political weight continues to accumulate or begins to fade as the campaign moves forward.
Notable Quotes
The Bolsonaro family has resisted calls to replace Flávio with another candidate, but he now faces skepticism from allies, centrist coalition parties, and business sectors— Datafolha poll analysis
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a four-point swing in one week matter so much in a race that's still months away?
Because it shows the scandal had teeth. These aren't theoretical voters—they're people who moved. And the fact that Flávio's rejection rate now exceeds Lula's is the real warning sign. Rejection is sticky. It's harder to recover from.
The family hasn't replaced him yet. What does that tell you?
That Jair Bolsonaro still believes his son can survive this, or that the political cost of dumping him is worse than the cost of keeping him. But the numbers suggest that window is closing. Every day the scandal sits in the news cycle, more people form a negative opinion.
Michelle tested at 43 percent. Is she a viable backup?
She's five points behind Lula, which is worse than Flávio's current position. But her rejection rate is much lower—31 percent versus 46. That suggests she has more room to grow if people actually get to know her as a candidate rather than as a former first lady.
What's the first-round collapse really about?
It's about consolidation. In a multi-candidate field, Flávio was holding 35 percent. Now he's at 31. That suggests his core supporters are either staying home or considering other options. Lula, meanwhile, is consolidating the left. That's a much stronger position.
Can Flávio recover from this?
Scandals fade if they're not fed. But this one involves banking, which touches something voters care about—corruption, opacity, the feeling that the powerful play by different rules. That's not a scandal that disappears on its own.