U.S.-Israel intensify Iran strikes as Trump demands 'unconditional surrender' and seeks role in choosing new leader

A week into the most intense military campaign against Iran in decades, the landscape of the Middle East has fundamentally shifted. The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike has created a power vacuum unseen in Iran for over forty years, and President Trump has made clear he intends to shape what comes next. In exclusive interviews, Trump told NBC News he has names in mind for Iran's replacement leader—someone he describes as "good" and "reasonable" to American interests. He will accept a nondemocratic ruler, even a religious one, so long as they treat the United States and Israel well. The message is unmistakable: this war will not end with a ceasefire. It will end, Trump says, only with Iran's "unconditional surrender."

The military operation itself, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, has been relentless. U.S. Central Command reports over 3,000 targets struck since February 28. Israeli warplanes have pounded Tehran and Beirut through the night, their explosions lighting the sky and shaking windows across the Iranian capital. The Israeli military says it has dismantled an underground bunker in central Tehran that was built for Khamenei himself. Forty-three Iranian naval vessels have been damaged or destroyed. Iran's navy, air force, and communication systems have been severely degraded, according to Trump's own assessment. Yet Iran continues to fire back. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has launched new waves of ballistic missiles, including its larger Khorramshahr-4 systems, at Israel and American targets across the Gulf. The rate of fire is declining, U.S. officials say, but the strikes continue.

The human toll is mounting across the region. Iranian state media reports more than 940 people killed by American and Israeli strikes. In Lebanon, Israeli bombardment has killed at least 123 people, and approximately 300,000 have been displaced by strikes and evacuation orders. Eleven Israelis have died in Iranian retaliation. Six American service members—all from an Army Reserve support unit based in Iowa—have been killed. But the most visible tragedy has been the strike on Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school in the southern Iranian town of Minab. At least 168 people died there, many of them children. A 10-year-old girl who survived, identified only as Nila, told Iranian state media she heard what sounded like "strong wind" before teachers screamed and ran. A large stone fell on her back. When she regained consciousness, she learned her 11-year-old brother and her mother, a teacher at the school, had been killed. U.S. officials have told Congress they were operating in that area. Preliminary investigation suggests it was likely a U.S. munition, though the Pentagon says it is still investigating whether the strike resulted from bad intelligence or poor targeting.

Thousands of Americans remain stranded in the Middle East, unable to leave as airspace closes and flights are canceled. Nearly 20,000 have managed to return to the United States since the war began, but many more are trapped. Sasha Hoffman, a 38-year-old venture capitalist from Boston, fled Dubai by road after days of flight cancellations. She and two friends paid roughly $1,300 for a private SUV to drive to Oman, where she found flights to London, Cairo, and Istanbul costing thousands of dollars—far above normal prices. She criticized the U.S. government for having "no plan" for evacuating citizens. The State Department has offered no organized evacuation flights. American Express has begun texting customers it believes are in the region, offering emergency travel assistance. The U.S. Embassy in Iraq has warned that Iran-aligned militant groups may attack hotels frequented by foreigners and urged Americans to leave immediately, noting that commercial flights are not operating but overland routes to Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey remain open—for now.

The war is reshaping global energy markets. Oil prices have spiked more than 11 percent, reaching their highest levels since October 2023. U.S. gasoline prices jumped 34 cents in a single week—the largest jump since March 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Brent crude has broken $90 per barrel. Qatar, which produces about one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas, has invoked force majeure and paused production after military attacks on its facilities. The energy minister warned that if the war continues for weeks, global GDP growth will be impacted, factory supply chains will break, and product shortages will cascade across economies worldwide. The stock market opened sharply lower, with the Dow down nearly 900 points. Trump dismissed concerns about rising gas prices, telling CNN they would fall "very quickly" and claiming prices are up "a little bit" and "not much"—a characterization at odds with the data.

Iran itself remains in what internet monitoring group NetBlocks calls "digital darkness." Nearly a week after the strikes began, the country has only 1 percent internet connectivity. Residents in Tehran describe explosions that shake windows and frighten dogs. One person told NBC News they were woken by ten massive explosions from the east of the city, with fighter jets at very low altitude. Yet life continues in small ways. In Gilavand, a residential area 50 miles east of Tehran, street vendors sold fresh fruit, grocery stores remained stocked, and people ran daily errands despite bombs falling on the capital.

The question of Iran's next leader remains unresolved. The Assembly of Experts, the clerical body tasked with selecting a supreme leader, is preparing to introduce a successor, according to Iranian state media. A member of the assembly told Iranian news agency Mehr that Khamenei, who was 86 when he died, had refused to name a successor before his death. He had been pressed to "name a specific individual" but declined. Now, as the clerics deliberate, Trump has made his intentions clear: he wants involvement in the selection. He is "watching" the remaining candidates to ensure they survive the war. Israel has threatened to kill anyone appointed to the role. The clerics, meanwhile, are proceeding with their own process, introducing what they call "the future leader" to the Iranian people. It is a power struggle playing out in real time, with the outcome still uncertain.