Peace in Ukraine would not change this calculation
Before dawn on a Tuesday, Kyiv awoke once more to the sound of sirens and the weight of a war now in its fourth year. Russian drones struck the capital in waves, wounding eleven civilians and cutting power across the city, while far to the north in Kursk, the human arithmetic of this conflict grew grimmer still — more than six thousand North Korean soldiers, sent by Kim Jong-un to fight another nation's war, had been killed or wounded. Across Europe, leaders and energy ministers were quietly drawing a different kind of line: not just against the war, but against the dependencies that had made such wars possible.
- Drones struck Kyiv from three directions before sunrise, tearing into apartment buildings and plunging neighbourhoods into darkness — eleven civilians were hurt, six hospitalised, and the mayor was still posting warnings as missiles followed.
- Over half of the 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to Kursk have now been killed or wounded, a casualty rate that lays bare the grinding, indiscriminate cost of proxy warfare.
- Zelenskyy travelled to Vienna and then Canada not as a supplicant but as a buyer — explicitly offering to purchase American weapons — while urging G7 leaders to hold the Western alliance together against a fracturing diplomatic landscape.
- Trump left the G7 early and said he was waiting for a deal before considering new sanctions on Russia, leaving a visible gap in the coordinated pressure Zelenskyy had hoped to build.
- The EU's energy commissioner declared that Europe will not buy Russian gas again — war or no war — with a legal framework already in place to shield companies that break their contracts with Moscow by the end of 2027.
The sirens came before dawn. Russian drones approached Kyiv from three directions, and by the time the attack subsided, eleven civilians had been wounded — six hospitalised — and fires were burning in at least one district on the city's eastern edge. Power went out across some neighbourhoods. Mayor Vitali Klitschko posted warnings mid-attack: missiles were also in the air. Andriy Yermak, the president's chief of staff, called it plainly — a war on civilians.
The toll in Kyiv was only part of the picture. In Russia's Kursk region, British defence officials released figures on the North Korean forces fighting alongside Russian troops: more than 6,000 killed or wounded out of roughly 11,000 deployed — a casualty rate exceeding half their original strength, accumulated in the service of a war not their own.
Zelenskyy, meanwhile, was in Vienna and then bound for Canada and the G7 summit. He wanted to buy American weapons — not receive them, he was careful to say, but purchase them. He spoke plainly about what was at stake: he could not imagine fighting without American support. The summit, he hoped, would be a moment to coordinate pressure on Moscow, discuss frozen Russian assets, and shore up sanctions. Trump, however, had already departed the G7 early, citing the Middle East, and on further sanctions he was measured: he was waiting to see whether a deal materialised — though none was in sight.
In Brussels, the European Union was charting its own course. Energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen announced that Europe should never again buy Russian gas — not as a wartime measure, but as a permanent posture. The European Commission was preparing a full ban on Russian gas and LNG imports by the end of 2027. Peace in Ukraine, Jorgensen said, would not change the calculation. Companies breaking contracts with Russian suppliers would be legally protected under a force majeure classification. The continent was preparing for a long separation, whatever the war's outcome.
On day 1,210 of the conflict, the casualties kept climbing — in Kyiv's streets, in the fields of Kursk, and in the quieter arithmetic of diplomats trying to imagine what comes after.
The sirens woke Kyiv before dawn on Tuesday. Russian drones came in waves from three directions, and the city's air defence units scrambled to meet them. By the time the attack subsided, at least eleven people were hurt. One strike tore into the top floor of an apartment building in the Solomianskyi district, near the city centre. Six of the injured ended up in hospital. Rescue teams moved through three other districts where drones had hit. Power went out in some neighbourhoods. Vitali Klitschko, the mayor, posted a warning as the attack was still underway: missiles were also in the air.
Andriy Yermak, the president's chief of staff, called it what he saw—a war on civilians. Tymur Tkachenko, who heads the city's military administration, reported a fire burning in Darnytskyi district on the eastern edge of the capital. "This is a very difficult night," he wrote. Across the border in Russia's Belgorod region, the defence ministry claimed that Ukrainian drones had attacked over three and a half hours late Monday, with fifty-one sorties launched.
But the immediate toll in Kyiv was only part of the picture emerging that day. In the Kursk region, where North Korean troops have been fighting alongside Russian forces, the British defence ministry released figures that underscored the grinding cost of the war. More than six thousand North Korean soldiers had been killed or wounded—more than half of the roughly eleven thousand that Kim Jong-un's regime had sent to the front. They had been deployed to fight against Ukraine, and the casualties mounted steadily.
Meanwhile, in Vienna and then heading to Canada, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was working a different front. He wanted to talk to Donald Trump about buying American weapons. Not receiving them free, he clarified—buying them. Zelenskyy was explicit about the stakes. "I can't imagine and I don't want to imagine how to live without and fight without the help of the United States," he said. He was heading to the G7 summit, which he saw as a chance to coordinate pressure on Putin, to discuss frozen Russian assets, to talk sanctions. Trump, though, had already left the G7 early, citing the Middle East situation. And on the question of further sanctions against Russia, Trump was waiting. "I'm waiting to see whether or not a deal is signed," he said—though no deal was visible on the horizon.
In Brussels, the European Union was moving in a different direction entirely. Dan Jorgensen, the EU's energy commissioner, made a stark declaration: Europe should not buy Russian gas again, even if the war ended. The European Commission was drafting a ban on all Russian gas and liquefied natural gas imports, with a target date of the end of 2027. Jorgensen was emphatic. Peace in Ukraine would not change this calculation. The legal team at the Commission had already cleared the way. Companies breaking their contracts with Russia would face no legal consequences—the ban would be classified as force majeure, an act beyond their control. EU countries and companies would receive no compensation, but they would be protected.
It was a signal that Europe was preparing for a long separation from Russian energy, regardless of how the war resolved. Zelenskyy, for his part, was trying to hold the Western alliance together. "I think we all have to work to make sure that the alliance between America and Europe doesn't fall apart," he said. The war was on day 1,210. The casualties kept climbing—in Kyiv's streets, in the fields of Kursk, in the calculations of diplomats and energy ministers trying to imagine what comes after.
Citas Notables
Russia is continuing its war on civilians— Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to President Zelenskyy
Even if there is peace in Ukraine we should still not restart Russian gas imports— Dan Jorgensen, EU energy commissioner
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the EU's decision to ban Russian gas matter if the war is still ongoing?
Because it's saying the war's outcome won't change the outcome. Even if there's a peace deal tomorrow, Europe is committing to staying off Russian energy. That's a structural break, not a temporary measure.
And the North Korean casualties—six thousand out of eleven thousand is devastating. Why are those troops even there?
Russia needed bodies. The Kursk offensive is grinding. North Korea gets military experience and leverage with Moscow. But the cost to those soldiers is real, and it signals how desperate Russia's manpower situation has become.
Zelenskyy seems worried about Trump. Is he?
He's being careful. He's saying he needs American weapons and American alliance-building. But Trump is already signalling he might not push for more sanctions, and he wants Russia back in the G7. Zelenskyy is trying to keep him engaged without looking desperate.
What does "force majeure" actually mean for European companies?
It means they have legal cover to break their Russian contracts without being sued. The EU is essentially saying: you're not choosing to leave—the law is forcing you to. It protects them from Russian legal action.
Is there any chance Russia could negotiate its way back into European energy markets?
Not under this framework. Jorgensen was very clear: peace doesn't change it. That's the point. Europe is trying to make the decoupling permanent, not temporary.