Israel carried out more than 10,000 strikes in violation of the ceasefire
Along the ancient fault lines of the Levant, where ceasefires have long served as pauses rather than endings, Israel and Lebanon have once again signed an agreement meant to quiet the guns — this time with the Trump administration hoping the silence in the south might open a door to Tehran. The arrangement demands Hezbollah withdraw from the Litani River's southern bank and surrender that ground to Lebanese state forces, yet Hezbollah itself sat at no table and has signaled it will accept no terms it did not shape. Even as the ink dried, Israeli drones were already in the air over Nabatieh, and the memory of ten thousand violations under a prior ceasefire hangs over the document like a verdict. What is being negotiated, it seems, is not merely a ceasefire but the question of whether diplomacy can outrun the logic of war.
- Israeli strikes killed at least nine people in southern Lebanon on Wednesday alone — including two paramedics killed when an ambulance was hit — and drones were back in the skies over Nabatieh the very morning after the ceasefire was announced.
- Hezbollah, the central party the agreement is designed to constrain, was absent from every round of negotiations and has flatly rejected any partial ceasefire, leaving the deal's core demand — its withdrawal south of the Litani — without the consent of the one actor who must comply.
- Iran is using the Lebanon conflict as leverage in its own nuclear talks with Washington, threatening to suspend US-Iran negotiations entirely if Israel's offensive continues, while insisting it will not abandon Hezbollah at the bargaining table.
- Trump publicly called Netanyahu 'crazy' and claimed to have personally halted an imminent Israeli strike on Beirut, revealing a fracture between Washington's desire for a swift diplomatic resolution and Israel's apparent intent to degrade Hezbollah as much as possible before any deal closes.
- A prior ceasefire in 2024 with nearly identical terms collapsed under more than 10,000 Israeli violations over 15 months, and the House of Representatives delivered a symbolic rebuke to Trump demanding Congressional approval for continued US military involvement — underscoring how fragile the political and military architecture around this agreement truly is.
The Trump administration unveiled a new ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday, presenting it as a stepping stone toward a wider nuclear deal with Iran. Negotiated in Washington over four rounds of direct Israeli-Lebanese talks, the arrangement demands Hezbollah halt all military operations and pull its fighters north of the Litani River, ceding that territory exclusively to Lebanese state forces. The administration framed the deal as essential — not only to stop the immediate fighting, but to clear the path toward broader regional diplomacy.
The agreement's durability was immediately in question. By Thursday morning, Israeli drones had struck the Nabatieh area of southern Lebanon. The day before, Israeli strikes killed at least nine people, hit an ambulance and killed two paramedics, and wounded 127 medical workers near hospitals in Tebnine, Tyre, and surrounding areas. A prior ceasefire from April had already collapsed, and a 2024 agreement with nearly identical terms saw Israel carry out more than 10,000 violations over 15 months.
Most critically, Hezbollah was absent from all four rounds of negotiations and has signaled it will reject any partial ceasefire — terms it had no role in crafting. The group's position mirrors the structural problem at the heart of the deal: the party most required to comply is the one least bound by it.
Iran has further complicated matters by insisting that Lebanon and its own nuclear negotiations with Washington cannot be separated. Tehran threatened this week to suspend US-Iran peace talks in protest of the Israeli offensive, and made clear it will not abandon Hezbollah as a bargaining chip. Trump, meanwhile, confirmed he had called Netanyahu 'crazy' and said he was frustrated that Israel's campaign was undermining American-led diplomacy — even as Netanyahu publicly insisted the two leaders were aligned on disarming Hezbollah.
The wider pressures are mounting. The Strait of Hormuz has remained largely closed for over three months, oil prices climbed after Iran struck Kuwait's airport, and the US House passed a symbolic resolution demanding Trump seek Congressional approval before continuing military operations. The ceasefire agreement now sits in the same precarious space as its predecessors — carefully worded, broadly doubted, and dependent on the consent of parties who were never truly at the table.
The Trump administration announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday, framing it as a crucial step toward a broader nuclear deal with Iran. The arrangement, detailed in a joint statement from the US State Department following negotiations in Washington, requires Hezbollah to stop all military operations and withdraw its fighters from the territory south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon. Lebanese armed forces would then assume exclusive control of that zone, excluding all non-state actors. It was the fourth round of direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese diplomats since fighting erupted on March 2, when Hezbollah renewed its attacks against Israel in support of Iran.
But the ink on the agreement was barely dry. On Thursday morning, Israeli drones struck the Nabatieh area of southern Lebanon. This was not an isolated incident. A previous ceasefire, agreed to on April 17, had already collapsed under the weight of mutual accusations of violations. During the Wednesday fighting alone, Israeli strikes killed at least nine people in southern Lebanon. One strike targeted an ambulance, killing two paramedics from a civilian health service. Strikes near hospitals in Tebnine, Tyre, and elsewhere left 127 people injured, most of them medical staff. The state-run National News Agency reported more than 20 locations struck across the south, some after Israel's military had warned residents to evacuate.
Hezbollah, the Iran-aligned militia at the center of the dispute, has not participated in any of the negotiations. A Hezbollah official told the AFP news agency that the group would reject any partial ceasefire, signaling deep skepticism about terms it had no hand in shaping. The arrangement itself echoes a 2024 ceasefire agreement that also required Hezbollah to pull back from south of the Litani River and allow Lebanese forces to deploy there. That agreement failed to achieve Hezbollah's full disarmament, and Israel carried out more than 10,000 strikes in violation of the ceasefire over the following 15 months.
The Trump administration is pushing hard for this deal because it sees the Lebanon conflict as one of the largest obstacles to a broader agreement with Iran. The president has said he wants to separate negotiations on Lebanon from those on the Iran war, but Tehran insists the two are linked. This week, Iran threatened to suspend peace talks with the United States in protest of Israel's offensive in Lebanon. Iran has also made clear it will not abandon Hezbollah in its negotiations with Washington, even as the Lebanese government has said it will not allow Tehran to negotiate on its behalf.
Trump said on Monday that he had stopped an imminent Israeli strike on Beirut and had spoken to Netanyahu and representatives of Hezbollah, all of whom agreed that "all shooting will stop." Yet Trump also confirmed that he had called Netanyahu "crazy," saying he was "a little bit perturbed" that Israel's campaign against Hezbollah was complicating US-led efforts to advance peace talks with Iran. Netanyahu told CNBC on Wednesday that he and Trump were aligned on the goal of disarming Hezbollah to achieve peace between Israel and Lebanon. Analysts suggest Israel wants to inflict as much damage as possible on Hezbollah before any potential peace deal with Iran stops its offensive.
The broader context is one of economic and political pressure on Trump. Higher energy prices and economic uncertainty threaten Republican prospects in the midterm elections and hamper global commerce. The strait of Hormuz remains largely closed more than three months after the war was launched, and oil prices rose nearly 2% on Wednesday after Iran struck Kuwait, killing one person and damaging its airport while injuring dozens. The US military carried out strikes near the strait. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they did not fire at Kuwait's airport and blamed the destruction on US interceptor missiles that failed to hit their targets, but the US military said Iranian drones deliberately targeted the airport.
On Wednesday, the US House of Representatives delivered a symbolic rebuke to Trump, backing a move to force him to seek Congressional approval for the war or withdraw US forces. The vote's impact was largely symbolic, as it remains unclear whether the resolution carries the force of law. What is clear is that the ceasefire agreement, however carefully negotiated, faces the same skepticism and pattern of violations that have undone previous attempts to stop the fighting. The question now is whether Hezbollah will accept terms it rejected, and whether Iran will allow negotiations to proceed.
Citas Notables
A Hezbollah official said the group would not accept a partial ceasefire— Hezbollah official to AFP
Trump said he was 'a little bit perturbed' that Israel's campaign against Hezbollah was complicating US-led efforts to advance peace talks with Iran— President Trump
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does the Trump administration think this ceasefire is different from the one that collapsed in April?
They don't, really. What's different is the pressure. Trump needs this deal with Iran to stabilize oil prices and shore up his political position before midterms. Lebanon is the lever.
But Hezbollah wasn't even at the table. How do you enforce a ceasefire with a party that didn't agree to it?
You don't, which is the problem. Hezbollah said it won't accept a partial ceasefire. They're watching to see if Israel honors the terms. Given that Israel violated the last ceasefire 10,000 times in 15 months, their skepticism is earned.
The strikes continued even after the agreement was announced. What does that tell you?
That Israel is trying to degrade Hezbollah as much as possible before any deal locks in place. Netanyahu and Trump say they're aligned on disarming Hezbollah, but Israel's actions suggest they want maximum damage first.
Iran says it won't abandon Hezbollah. Does that mean this whole thing falls apart?
Possibly. Iran has linked Lebanon to the broader nuclear negotiations. If the US and Israel keep escalating, Iran threatens to walk away from talks entirely. It's a game of chicken with oil prices and global stability as the stakes.
What about the Lebanese government? Where do they stand?
Caught in the middle. They've said Iran can't negotiate on their behalf, but they also can't control Hezbollah. A ceasefire that gives Lebanese forces control of the south only works if Hezbollah actually leaves, which they haven't done before.
So what happens next?
More rounds of talks in Washington. More violations. The question is whether anyone actually wants this ceasefire to hold, or whether it's just theater while the real war continues.