Iran has nothing left to lose. They'll keep fighting.
A new Iranian supreme leader, barely a week in power and reportedly wounded, has ordered the Strait of Hormuz sealed and American military bases expelled from the Gulf — a defiant first act that signals not resolution but the hardening of a war still finding its shape. The conflict, born from a US-Israeli campaign launched in late February, has already displaced millions, spiked global oil prices to historic levels, and drawn Lebanon deeper into its orbit. History offers a familiar warning: wars that begin with swift ambitions rarely end on the timetable of those who start them.
- A new supreme leader, injured and unverified in his grip on power, issued his opening orders through a television newscaster rather than a public appearance — a detail that speaks volumes about the fragility beneath the defiance.
- Fresh Iranian drone and missile strikes hit fuel depots in Bahrain, Kuwait's airport, targets in Dubai, and vessels off the UAE and Iraq, sending oil prices above $100 a barrel and triggering IEA warnings of the largest supply disruption in global oil market history.
- President Trump dismissed the economic alarm publicly, insisting the campaign against Iran's nuclear ambitions outweighs crude prices — even as analysts warn the conflict is shifting from a swift strike into a prolonged war of attrition.
- The human toll is accelerating: over 1,200 killed and 3 million displaced in Iran, 687 dead and 800,000 displaced in Lebanon, 24 killed in Gulf attacks including seven American military personnel, and a US war bill already exceeding $11.3 billion.
- Strategic analysts and ordinary Iranians alike are voicing the same fear from opposite sides — that this war will neither end cleanly nor end soon, leaving devastation without resolution in its wake.
Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, made his first major move without showing his face. Reportedly wounded in recent airstrikes and in power for less than a week following his father's death in the opening of a US-Israeli military campaign, he delivered his orders through a state television newscaster: the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, and Gulf nations should expel American military bases. The message was defiant. The method was telling.
Khamenei inherited a country already deep in crisis. More than three million Iranians had been displaced, and his government reported over 1,200 killed — figures international observers have not independently confirmed. On the same day he issued his order, Iranian forces struck energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Smoke rose from fuel tanks in Bahrain. Drones hit Kuwait's airport and targets in Dubai. Saudi Arabia intercepted unmanned aircraft near its Shaybah oil field. Three vessels were attacked off the UAE and Iraq. Oil prices briefly crossed $100 a barrel, and the International Energy Authority called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
President Trump, facing economic pressure at home, brushed aside the alarm. Preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, he wrote on social media, mattered more than crude prices. He also suggested the air campaign would continue, hinting that American forces were running low on viable targets — a signal that the conflict would grind on rather than conclude.
The war had already spread. In Lebanon, Israeli strikes had killed at least 687 people and displaced more than 800,000. Families were sheltering in tents along Beirut's waterfront. After Hezbollah announced new operations against Israel, the Israeli Defense Minister ordered preparations for expanded strikes on Lebanon. Satellite imagery showed bunker-busting munitions hitting Iran's Parchin military facility near Tehran.
Analysts warned the conflict was becoming a war of attrition. A senior Iranian military official said the country could sustain a prolonged campaign capable of damaging the global economy. One strategic studies director cautioned that assuming the war would end when Washington decided was a failure to learn from history. In Tehran, a resident who had hoped the campaign might bring down the regime expressed a quieter dread — that it might stop short of that, leaving her country, and herself, in indefinite limbo. The war had already cost the United States more than $11 billion. The toll on all sides continued to rise, and no clear path to an end had emerged.
The new Iranian supreme leader delivered his first major order on Thursday without appearing in public. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, reportedly wounded in recent airstrikes and in power for less than a week, sent word through a state television newscaster that the Strait of Hormuz—the waterway carrying roughly a quarter of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas—would remain sealed. He also called for Gulf nations to expel American military bases from their territory. The message was defiant, but it came through an intermediary, a detail that underscored the uncertainty surrounding the new leader's condition and grip on power.
Khamenei inherited a nation at war. His father, Ali Khamenei, had been killed in the opening salvos of what became a full-scale US-Israeli campaign that began on February 28. The son now presided over a conflict that had already displaced three million Iranians and killed more than 1,200 people by his government's count—a figure international observers have not independently verified. On the day he issued his order, Iranian forces launched a fresh wave of attacks against energy infrastructure across the Gulf, sending oil prices briefly above $100 a barrel and prompting the International Energy Authority to warn that the world was witnessing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
The attacks were visible and immediate. Thick smoke rose from fuel tanks in Muharraq, Bahrain, forcing residents to shelter indoors. Drones struck Kuwait's international airport and struck targets in downtown Dubai. Saudi Arabia reported intercepting unmanned aircraft headed toward its Shaybah oil field and its embassy district. Three more vessels were attacked in the waters off the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. Shipping through the Strait itself had nearly stopped. The narrow passage—just 34 miles wide at its narrowest point—had become a chokepoint in a widening regional war.
President Trump, facing mounting pressure at home, dismissed the economic alarm. On social media, he wrote that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and "destroying the Middle East" mattered far more to him than crude prices. He also indicated that the air campaign would not end soon, suggesting that American forces were running low on targets. The statement seemed to signal that the conflict would grind on, even as oil prices climbed 40 to 50 percent since late February and threatened to slow global economic growth and fuel inflation.
The violence had already spread far beyond Iran. In Lebanon, Israeli strikes had killed at least 687 people, with more than 800,000 registered as displaced. Families were camping in tents on Beirut's waterfront. After the Iran-backed Hezbollah group announced new operations against Israel, the Israeli Defense Minister ordered troops to prepare for expanded attacks on Lebanon. Satellite imagery showed bunker-busting munitions striking Iran's Parchin military facility southeast of Tehran, a site Israel said was used for nuclear weapons development. The US military reported striking 28 Iranian mine-laying vessels, fearing Tehran might render the Strait completely impassable.
Yet the conflict showed signs of becoming a war of attrition rather than a swift conclusion. A senior Iranian military official warned that the country could wage a prolonged campaign that would devastate the global economy. Pierre Razoux, director of studies at the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies, told reporters that Iran, having lost much already, would likely sustain attacks against the United States and Israel for an extended period. "If the White House imagines the conflict will stop when Donald Trump decides it," he said, "they're making a mistake and ignoring the lessons of history."
In Tehran, a resident hoping for the regime's collapse expressed a different kind of fear. She worried that the American and Israeli air campaign might end before achieving its aims, leaving her nation in a state of prolonged uncertainty. "I don't know what will happen to us mentally and emotionally if it doesn't work out this time," she told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity. The war had already cost the United States more than $11.3 billion, according to a Pentagon briefing. In Israel, 14 people had been killed. In the Gulf, attacks had claimed 24 lives, including 11 civilians and seven American military personnel. The toll continued to mount, and there was no clear path to an end.
Citas Notables
If the White House imagines the conflict will stop when Donald Trump decides it, they're making a mistake and ignoring the lessons of history. The Iranian regime, which no longer has anything to lose, will wage a war of attrition.— Pierre Razoux, director of studies at the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies
I don't know what will happen to us mentally and emotionally if it doesn't work out this time.— Tehran resident (anonymous)
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Khamenei's absence from public view matter so much? He's still giving orders.
Because in a regime like Iran's, the supreme leader's physical presence carries weight. If he's injured badly enough that he can't appear, it raises questions about succession, about whether his authority will hold if the conflict drags on. A message read by a newscaster is not the same as a leader standing before the nation.
The oil market is spiking, but Trump says that's not his concern. Is he gambling that the conflict ends quickly?
He seems to be gambling that military victory comes before economic pain reaches a breaking point at home. But Razoux's point is sharp—Iran has nothing left to lose. They're not going to surrender because oil hits $100. They'll keep fighting.
Three million displaced Iranians. How does a government function when that many people are uprooted?
It doesn't, not normally. You lose tax revenue, you lose social cohesion, you lose the ability to plan. You're in pure survival mode. That's partly why Khamenei's order about the Strait feels so significant—it's a show of defiance when the regime is actually fracturing from within.
The woman in Tehran hoping for the regime's fall but terrified the strikes will stop—that's a haunting contradiction.
It is. She wants change, but she's also lived through enough conflict to know that incomplete wars leave scars that never heal. She's trapped between two fears: that the regime survives, or that it doesn't and she's left in the wreckage.
What does the Strait of Hormuz closure actually accomplish for Iran?
Economically, it hurts everyone—including Iran, which needs to export oil. But symbolically, it's leverage. It's saying: we can make the world hurt. And right now, when you've lost your previous leader and millions of your people are displaced, symbolic leverage might be all you have left.