Either all deals are deals, or no handshake means anything
In the shadow of Davos, Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European nations — punishment for opposing his Greenland ambitions — has drawn an unexpected witness: Iran's foreign minister, who sees in Europe's distress the echo of his own country's abandonment in 2018. When Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, Europe acquiesced; now, facing the same deal-breaking logic turned upon themselves, European leaders speak of unshakeable alliances while quietly reckoning with what a handshake is worth. The moment raises a question older than any trade agreement: does the rules-based international order exist for everyone, or only until it becomes inconvenient for the powerful?
- Trump threatened 10% tariffs on eight EU nations merely for opposing his bid to acquire Greenland — a punishment that arrived just six months after the US and EU signed a trade deal together.
- European Commission President von der Leyen stood at Davos insisting 'a deal is a deal,' but the fragility beneath her words was unmistakable — something in the transatlantic relationship had quietly fractured.
- Iran's foreign minister posted a pointed 'I told you so,' reminding Europe that it had stood aside — or even lent support — when Trump tore up the 2018 nuclear agreement, leaving Iran under crushing sanctions.
- World leaders from Macron to Carney are now openly naming what is happening: the old rules-based order is dissolving, and no alliance, treaty, or handshake can be assumed to hold.
- Trump arrived at Davos doubling down on Greenland, declaring 'no going back,' while Aragchi's final verdict on Europe's predicament — 'could not happen to a more deserving continent' — landed like a cold mirror held up to history.
Donald Trump has threatened a 10 percent tariff on goods from eight European countries — their offense being opposition to his plan to acquire Greenland. The timing is striking: the EU and the United States had signed a trade agreement just six months prior. At Davos, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen defended that deal with visible strain. "When friends shake hands, it must mean something," she said, pledging a united and proportional European response while still calling the US a close ally. The subtext, however, was unmistakable.
Iran's foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Aragchi, recognized the moment immediately. In a post on X, he drew a direct line between Europe's current predicament and the 2018 US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal — a landmark agreement signed in 2015 by Iran, the US, and five major powers, which had lifted sanctions in exchange for limits on Iran's nuclear program. When Trump pulled out unilaterally, the sanctions returned and the economic damage to Iran was swift and severe. Europe, at the time, largely acquiesced.
"Either all deals are deals, or no handshake means anything," Aragchi wrote, addressing France, Germany, and the UK directly. He called Europe's current situation the very definition of blowback — and suggested the alternative to honoring agreements was "nothing short of the breakdown of the international order." His final remark was sharper still: "Could not happen to a more deserving continent."
The broader picture is one of accelerating fracture. Trump declared there was "no going back" on Greenland. Macron warned of "a world without rules." Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the old order was gone. The Iran nuclear deal had once seemed proof that diplomacy could work — until it didn't. Now, in January 2026, the same logic that unraveled that agreement is being applied to European allies. The question Aragchi left hanging was whether anyone, having watched it happen once, had learned anything at all.
Donald Trump has threatened to slap a 10 percent tariff on goods from eight European countries. Their crime: opposing his plan to acquire Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory. The timing is remarkable. The EU and the United States signed a trade agreement just six months ago. Now, standing at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen found herself defending a deal that already seemed fragile.
"In politics, as in business, a deal is a deal," von der Leyen said, her words carrying the weight of someone who had watched this movie before. "When friends shake hands, it must mean something." She pledged that Europe would respond to any tariffs with measures that were "unflinching, united and proportional." She still called the United States a close ally. But the subtext was clear: something had broken.
Iran's foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Aragchi, saw in Europe's predicament a mirror of his own country's experience. On Tuesday evening, he posted on X what amounted to a bitter "I told you so." The EU, he noted, had stood by and even supported Trump when he withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement during his first term in 2018. That deal, signed in July 2015 and backed by China, France, Germany, Russia, and the UK, had lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran in exchange for strict limits on its civil nuclear program. When Trump pulled out unilaterally, those sanctions snapped back into place. The economic damage to Iran was severe and immediate.
"Sadly for Europe, its current conundrum is the very definition of 'blowback'," Aragchi wrote. He was addressing the three European signatories—France, Germany, and the UK—directly. They had made a choice in 2018 to acquiesce to Trump's decision. Now, he suggested, they were learning what it felt like when a handshake meant nothing. "Either all deals are deals, or no handshake means anything," he wrote. The alternative, he added, was "nothing short of the breakdown of the international order."
The Iran nuclear deal had been a centerpiece of international diplomacy. Iran had accepted restrictions on its nuclear ambitions. The world had agreed to lift sanctions. For a moment, it seemed like the system worked. Then Trump decided it didn't. Since 2018, Iran and the United States have been unable to negotiate a new agreement. Last June, during a 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, the US bombed three Iranian nuclear sites—the first such American attack on Iranian soil in decades.
Now, in January 2026, Trump was making threats that seemed to violate the basic logic of international law. He wanted Greenland. He said there was "no going back." French President Emmanuel Macron warned of a shift toward "a world without rules." Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said "the old order is not coming back." Trump arrived at Davos on Wednesday with, as he put it, "a lot of meetings scheduled on Greenland."
Aragchi's final observation was cutting. "Could not happen to a more deserving continent," he said of Trump's threats—a remark that carried both irony and a kind of grim vindication. The EU had watched the rules-based international order bend and break when it happened to Iran. Now it was happening to them. The question was whether anyone had learned anything from the first time.
Citações Notáveis
In politics, as in business, a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something.— Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President
Either all deals are deals, or no handshake means anything. The alternative is nothing short of the breakdown of the international order.— Seyed Abbas Aragchi, Iran's Foreign Minister
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Iran's foreign minister care what happens to Europe's trade deal?
Because the EU helped Trump break the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and did nothing to stop him. Now he's breaking deals with them. Aragchi is pointing out the hypocrisy—and the cost of not defending the international system when it's someone else being harmed.
But the EU didn't actually support Trump's withdrawal from the Iran deal, did they?
No, they opposed it. But they didn't have the power to stop it, and they didn't impose serious consequences. They essentially accepted it. Aragchi's argument is that by accepting it then, they signaled that deals could be broken without real pushback.
Is he saying the EU deserves this?
Not exactly. He's saying they should have seen it coming. If the rules can be broken once without consequences, they can be broken again. The EU is learning that lesson now.
What's the actual risk here—is Trump really going to take Greenland?
That's unclear. But the tariff threat is real and immediate. The larger risk is what Aragchi is naming: if major powers can unilaterally abandon agreements whenever they want, the whole system of international agreements collapses.
So this is about more than trade?
Much more. It's about whether any deal between nations means anything. If it doesn't, every country has to assume every agreement could be abandoned at any moment. That makes cooperation nearly impossible.