Both seem to be turning a blind eye
In the narrow passage through which a fifth of the world's oil flows, something has quietly shifted. Without formal agreement or public declaration, Iran and the United States appear to have arrived at a tacit understanding that more ships may cross the Strait of Hormuz — a fragile, unspoken truce born not of diplomacy but of shared economic necessity. Military skirmishes continue, negotiations remain stalled, and yet the vessels move, carrying with them a tentative signal that even adversaries can find common ground in the language of markets.
- Daily ship crossings through Hormuz have surged past twenty vessels, reversing a near-total blockade that had gripped the strait through April and much of May.
- The tacit accord is tested constantly — just hours before the thaw became visible, the US struck an Iranian tanker and Tehran retaliated against a Liberian-flagged container ship, yet traffic continued.
- A growing shadow fleet — over 65% of May's transits — is moving through the strait with transponders off, as commercial operators worldwide adapt to keep energy flowing regardless of political visibility.
- Oil prices have dipped below $100 per barrel, offering modest but real relief to global energy markets that would be significantly higher without the recent surge in crossings.
- The recovery remains fragile and far below the hundred-plus daily transits of pre-conflict levels, leaving the question of whether this unspoken accord will hold — or fracture with the next incident.
Something is moving again in the Strait of Hormuz, even if no one is ready to say it out loud. Over the past two weeks, ship crossings through the world's most critical energy chokepoint have climbed noticeably — a shift so marked that analysts describe it as an unspoken understanding between Washington and Tehran, even as formal negotiations remain stalled and military skirmishes continue to flare across the same waters.
The data is clear. Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy and British maritime intelligence firm Lloyd's List both report a distinct uptick in crossings, with Iranian authorities announcing daily transits exceeding twenty vessels. According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, roughly three hundred ships flying non-Iranian flags have made the crossing after reaching some form of agreement with Iran's Revolutionary Guard — many belonging to companies that had not ventured through the strait since the conflict began.
The official numbers, however, tell only part of the story. A growing shadow fleet is moving through Hormuz with transponders switched off. London-based firm Vortexa estimates that more than 65% of May's transits occurred in this darkness, up from 54% in April. What began as a tactic associated with Iranian-linked vessels has expanded to include operators with no connection to Iran — a broad commercial response by shipping companies determined to keep energy flowing even when the political situation remains volatile.
Jorge León, vice president of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC analyst, describes the pattern plainly: it is as though Washington and Tehran have struck a tacit bargain to open the valve slightly. The logic seems counterintuitive — Iran typically benefits from high oil prices, while the US prefers to limit Iranian export revenue. Yet both appear to be looking the other way, and oil prices have dipped below $100 per barrel as a result.
The relief is real, though modest. Current crossing volumes remain far below the hundred-plus ships that transited Hormuz daily before the conflict. What happens next depends on whether this unspoken accord holds, whether formal negotiations gain traction, or whether the next military incident shatters the fragile understanding taking shape beneath the surface of the water.
Something is moving again in the Strait of Hormuz, even if no one is quite ready to say it out loud. Over the past two weeks, the number of ships successfully crossing the world's most critical energy chokepoint has climbed noticeably—a shift so marked that it suggests an unspoken understanding between Washington and Tehran, despite the fact that formal negotiations remain stalled and military skirmishes continue to flare across the same waters. Just hours before this apparent thaw, the United States struck an Iranian tanker, and Tehran responded by attacking a Liberian-flagged container ship. Yet the traffic keeps moving.
The evidence is there in the data. Norwegian energy consultancy Rystad Energy and British maritime intelligence firm Lloyd's List both report a clear uptick in crossings, particularly in the outbound direction toward the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. Iranian authorities have been announcing daily transits exceeding twenty vessels—numbers that held steady last Friday and again this past Tuesday. According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, roughly three hundred ships flying non-Iranian flags have made the crossing after reaching some form of agreement with Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Many of these vessels belong to shipping companies that had not ventured through the strait in either direction since the conflict began, according to reporting from Bloomberg.
But the official numbers tell only part of the story. Alongside the authorized passages, a growing shadow fleet is moving through Hormuz with transponders switched off, invisible to real-time tracking. London-based data firm Vortexa estimates that more than sixty-five percent of May's transits occurred in this darkness—a jump from fifty-four percent in April. The shift is significant: what began as a tactic primarily associated with Iranian-linked vessels has expanded dramatically to include operators with no connection to Iran. These are not just sanctions-evasion maneuvers anymore. They represent a broad commercial response, a determination by shipping companies worldwide to keep energy flowing even when visibility is poor and the political situation remains volatile. The physical supply from the Persian Gulf has not stopped; it has simply become harder to see.
Jorge León, vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, describes the pattern plainly: it is as though Washington and Tehran have struck a tacit bargain to open the valve slightly and relieve the bottleneck. The logic seems counterintuitive at first. Iran typically benefits when oil prices rise—higher prices strengthen its negotiating position. The United States, conversely, prefers lower Iranian exports to reduce Tehran's revenue. Yet both sides appear to be looking the other way. "Both seem to be turning a blind eye," León said in a phone interview, noting that the increased traffic is clearly helping to ease oil prices, which have dipped below one hundred dollars per barrel in recent days, and natural gas, which is also declining sharply.
The relief in energy markets is real, though modest. Without this surge in crossings over the past two weeks, León explained, the market would be significantly higher. He knows the dynamics intimately—he was formerly an analyst with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The ship traffic remains volatile, fluctuating day to day, but the direction is unmistakable: both parties are implicitly allowing more vessels through.
Still, the current volume of crossings remains far below pre-conflict levels, when more than one hundred ships regularly passed through Hormuz on any given day. The recent increase marks a turning point after the near-total paralysis of April and the first half of May, but it is recovery measured in increments, not a return to normal. What happens next depends on whether this unspoken accord holds, whether formal negotiations gain traction, or whether the next military incident shatters the fragile understanding that has begun to take shape beneath the surface of the water.
Notable Quotes
It is as though the US and Iran have struck a tacit bargain to open the valve slightly and relieve the bottleneck— Jorge León, Rystad Energy
Both seem to be turning a blind eye— Jorge León, Rystad Energy
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would both countries agree to this if they seem to want opposite things from the oil market?
Because the cost of the blockade is becoming unbearable for both. Iran's economy suffers when it can't export, and the US faces pressure from allies and markets if energy prices spike too high. Sometimes mutual pain creates space for unspoken deals.
So they're not actually negotiating—they're just... letting it happen?
Exactly. Formal talks are still frozen, but the behavior on the water tells a different story. It's a way to ease pressure without admitting you've changed course.
What's the significance of the shadow fleet—the ships with transponders off?
It means the system is adapting. Non-Iranian companies are now using the same evasion tactics that Iranian operators pioneered. It's no longer about sanctions-busting; it's about keeping global supply chains alive.
Does this mean the conflict is ending?
Not necessarily. The military incidents continue. But it suggests both sides recognize that total blockade serves neither of them. It's a pause, not a peace.
How long can this tacit agreement last?
That depends on whether the next provocation breaks it. These arrangements are fragile. One well-placed strike could unravel everything.