It is we who will determine the end of the war
Ten days into a war born from the killing of Iran's supreme leader, the United States and Israel find themselves caught between declared victory and unresolved conflict — a tension as old as war itself. President Trump speaks of swift conclusions while Iran's new leadership vows to write its own ending, and the world in between absorbs the cost: in oil, in markets, in lives. What began as a targeted campaign has spread across borders and balance sheets, reminding a watching world that the distance between military objective and lasting peace is rarely as short as those who wage war tend to believe.
- Trump declared objectives met and promised the war would end 'soon,' but Iran's Revolutionary Guards answered within hours: 'It is we who will determine the end of the war.'
- Fresh Israeli strikes on Tehran and continued Iranian missile fire into Israel shattered any brief market calm, sending oil above $100 a barrel and stock indices plunging 5–6% across Asia and Europe.
- Seven American soldiers are dead, over 165 people — most of them children — were killed in a school strike, and civilians across Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran are being evacuated as the human toll mounts with each passing day.
- Iran's appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader hardened positions on all sides, with Trump expressing disappointment, Israel calling him a tyrant, and Iran's allies pledging loyalty — signaling no imminent softening.
- Global economies are absorbing violent shocks: nearly $37 billion in Indian market value erased in a week, European gas prices up 30%, Pakistan raising fuel costs by 20%, and nations from Vietnam to the UK scrambling to manage the fallout.
Ten days into a war neither side appears ready to end, President Trump stood before cameras in Florida and declared something close to victory. The United States and Israel had achieved their objectives, he said. The conflict would be over soon. For a moment, markets exhaled — oil prices retreated from above $120 a barrel, Asian stocks rallied.
Then Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued their answer: it would be Tehran, not Washington, that determined when the war ended. Hours later, Israel launched a fresh wave of strikes on the Iranian capital. The competing signals left global markets whipsawing between hope and fear, unable to settle.
The war began on February 28 with a joint US-Israeli strike that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In the ten days since, the United States struck more than 5,000 targets across Iran — air defenses, missile sites, naval vessels. Iran responded with drone and missile barrages aimed at Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Israel. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil flows, has become a flashpoint. Oil has climbed past $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The human cost has been mounting quietly alongside the geopolitical noise. Seven American service members have been killed. A school in Iran was struck, killing more than 165 people, most of them children — Trump suggested Iran may have struck its own facility, a claim Tehran swiftly rejected. Across Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran, civilians have been ordered to evacuate. Beirut's southern suburbs have been struck repeatedly. The displacement is spreading.
Iran's appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei — son of the slain leader — as the new supreme leader was meant to project continuity and strength. Instead it hardened every position in the room. Trump said he was disappointed. Israel called the younger Khamenei a tyrant. Hezbollah pledged allegiance. The appointment read less like a resolution than a declaration of intent.
The economic shockwaves have reached every corner of the world. Japan's Nikkei fell more than 6 percent. South Korea's Kospi dropped nearly as much. European natural gas prices surged 30 percent. India lost nearly 31 trillion rupees in market value in a single week. Pakistan raised fuel prices by 20 percent. Vietnam asked workers to stay home to conserve fuel. The Pope expressed sorrow. The UN warned of environmental catastrophe from strikes on oil facilities and desalination plants.
Trump's own statements have deepened the uncertainty — calling it a 'short-term excursion' in one breath and vowing to fight 'until the enemy is totally defeated' in the next. What is clear is that the war has already reshaped the global economy in ways that will take far longer than any presidential timeline to repair.
Ten days into a war that neither side appears ready to end, President Donald Trump stood before cameras in Florida on Monday and declared victory—or something close to it. The United States and Israel had achieved their objectives, he said. The conflict would be over soon. If Iran started up again, they would be hit even harder. His words sent a tremor through global markets: oil prices that had spiked above $120 a barrel began their descent. Asian stocks rallied. For a moment, the world exhaled.
Then Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued their response: "It is we who will determine the end of the war." The statement was a direct rebuke to Trump's timeline, a signal that Tehran had no intention of accepting American terms for peace. Hours later, explosions rocked Tehran as Israel launched what it called a "broad wave" of strikes on the capital. The competing signals—Trump's optimism colliding with Iran's defiance and fresh military action—left markets whipsawing between hope and fear, unable to settle on a direction.
The war that began on February 28 with the killing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a joint US-Israeli strike has metastasized across the Middle East with a speed that has left the global economy reeling. Over the first ten days, the United States military struck more than 5,000 targets, including air defense systems, ballistic missile sites, and more than 50 Iranian vessels. Iran responded with waves of drones and missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel itself. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, has become a chokepoint. Saudi Arabia has begun cutting production. Oil prices have climbed past $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The human toll has been mounting steadily. Seven American service members have been killed, the most recent a 26-year-old Army sergeant named Benjamin Pennington from Glendale, Kentucky, who died from wounds sustained in a March 1 strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Vice President JD Vance attended his dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base, standing silent as uniformed soldiers carried the flag-draped coffin from a military transport. But the American deaths are only a fraction of the broader carnage. A school in Iran was struck, killing more than 165 people, most of them children. Trump suggested Iran might have been responsible for the attack on its own facility, noting that other countries possess Tomahawk missiles. The claim drew swift rejection from Tehran. Across Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran, civilians have been ordered to evacuate. Beirut's southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, have been pounded repeatedly. An Israeli strike hit a base of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi near Mosul. The displacement is spreading.
On Monday, Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the slain supreme leader, to succeed his father. The move was meant to signal continuity—a show of strength at a moment of vulnerability. Instead, it hardened positions on all sides. Trump said he was "disappointed" and that the appointment would lead to "more of the same problems." Israel's foreign ministry called the younger Khamenei a "tyrant" who would continue his father's brutality. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, pledged its allegiance. Pro-Iran factions in Iraq welcomed the transition. The appointment seemed less like a resolution and more like a declaration that Iran would not bend.
The economic shockwaves have been felt everywhere. Japan's Nikkei index plunged more than 6 percent. South Korea's Kospi fell nearly 6 percent. Hong Kong stocks dropped 3.2 percent. European natural gas prices surged 30 percent. In India, nearly 31 trillion rupees in market value evaporated in a single week. Pakistan's government raised fuel prices by 20 percent and ordered austerity measures. Vietnam called on businesses to have employees work from home to save fuel. The UK's finance minister warned of rising inflation. The Pope expressed "deep sorrow" for the victims. The UN warned of environmental hazards from strikes on oil facilities and desalination plants.
Trump's contradictions have only deepened the uncertainty. He said the war would be a "short-term excursion." He also said it would continue "until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated." He threatened Iran with a response "twenty times harder" if it blocked the Strait of Hormuz. He said he was "nowhere near" sending troops to secure Iran's nuclear sites, then suggested he was considering it. He told CBS the war was "very complete" and the US was "very far ahead" of his initial four- to five-week timeline. Hours later, fresh Iranian missiles were fired at Israel, killing at least one person and wounding two others critically. The market swings have become violent and unpredictable, with traders unable to discern whether this conflict will be measured in weeks or months or years. What is clear is that the war has already reshaped the global economy in ways that will take far longer than Trump's timeline to repair.
Citas Notables
It's going to be ended soon, and if it starts up again they'll be hit even harder.— President Donald Trump, at press conference in Florida
It is we who will determine the end of the war. American forces will not end the war.— Iran's Revolutionary Guards, in statement rejecting Trump's timeline
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Trump keep saying the war will end soon when Iran keeps attacking?
Because he's trying to manage two audiences at once—the markets, which need reassurance, and his political base, which wants to see strength. But every time he declares victory, Iran responds with another strike, which makes him look either wrong or weak.
What does Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment actually change?
On the surface, nothing. He's his father's son, and he's been groomed for this role. But symbolically, it's Iran saying: we're not broken, we're not negotiating, we're continuing. It's a show of defiance dressed up as continuity.
Why are global markets so volatile if oil prices are actually coming down from their peak?
Because nobody knows what comes next. Is this a two-week war or a two-year war? Will the Strait of Hormuz stay open? Will Saudi Arabia keep cutting production? The uncertainty is almost worse than the crisis itself. Traders can price in high oil. They can't price in not knowing.
How much of this is actually about oil versus about regional power?
Both, inseparably. Iran's trying to prove it's still a regional power after losing its supreme leader. The US and Israel are trying to prevent that. But the oil is the leverage—it's what makes the conflict matter to every economy on Earth, not just the ones in the Middle East.
What happens if the Strait of Hormuz actually closes?
Then you have a genuine energy crisis. A fifth of global oil passes through there. Prices could spike to $150, $200 a barrel. Economies dependent on cheap energy—India, Vietnam, Pakistan—would face real hardship. That's why Trump keeps threatening Iran over it. He knows it's the one thing that could turn this into a genuine catastrophe.
Is there any off-ramp here?
Not that either side is showing. Trump wants a quick win. Iran wants to prove it can't be humiliated. Israel wants to degrade Iranian military capacity. Those goals don't align. And every time one side thinks it's winning, the other side escalates. The cycle just keeps turning.