Either Iran signs a deal, or the United States finishes the job
At the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow passage through which a third of the world's seaborne oil flows — the ancient tension between coercion and diplomacy is playing out in real time. Iran, having sealed the waterway since late February, now quietly reaches toward Oman for a framework of managed passage, even as Washington threatens to deepen a war it claims is nearly won. The first South Korean tanker to transit the strait in months slipped through on the strength of quiet diplomacy, a small proof that even in the shadow of ultimatums, negotiated openings remain possible. Whether this moment resolves into agreement or escalation may depend less on grand strategy than on which signal — the threat or the outstretched hand — is heard first.
- Trump issued a stark ultimatum at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy: agree to a nuclear deal or face strikes far harder than those already delivered, while simultaneously claiming negotiations are in their 'final stages' — a contradiction that sent bond markets lurching.
- Iran's chief negotiator flatly rejected the pressure framing, warning that any renewed assault would ignite a conflict stretching well beyond the Middle East, leaving the diplomatic gap as wide as ever.
- Drones struck near the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant and were shot down over Jordan, signaling that the war is bleeding outward through proxy networks with no clear command structure or ceiling.
- The U.S. has lost or damaged at least 42 aircraft since Operation Epic Fury began — including an F-35, four F-15Es, and 24 Reaper drones — a toll that quietly measures the true weight of the campaign.
- A single South Korean tanker carrying two million barrels of crude became the first to transit the Hormuz blockade, cleared through high-level diplomacy and without payment, offering a fragile proof of concept for negotiated passage.
- France is quietly positioning demining vessels near the strait, a hedge against the possibility that the world's most critical energy corridor will require international clearing — regardless of how the diplomacy ends.
The Strait of Hormuz has been largely sealed to foreign vessels since late February, when war between the United States, Israel, and Iran began — the largest disruption to global energy supplies in recorded history. Now, Iran's foreign ministry has signaled a willingness to work with Oman and other coastal states to establish protocols for safe shipping through the waterway, offering no specifics but acknowledging that an indefinite blockade carries catastrophic costs for the region itself.
The announcement arrived alongside a fresh ultimatum from Donald Trump, who told graduates at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy that Iran must agree to a nuclear deal or face even harder strikes. He claimed Iran's navy was gone and its air force decimated, and framed the choice in blunt terms. Markets responded immediately — 30-year Treasury yields fell from a 19-year peak as investors read his 'final stages' language as a signal that war might be averted. Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, rejected that framing entirely, warning of a forceful response and cautioning that any renewed conflict would spread far beyond the Middle East.
The conflict was already spreading. A drone struck an electrical generator near the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant on May 17, igniting a fire but causing no casualties or radiation leak; two more drones were intercepted. Days later, Jordan's military shot down an unidentified drone over the Jerash Governorate. The UAE's Foreign Ministry pointed toward Iran-backed Shiite militias operating from Iraqi territory, and the pattern of incidents suggested a widening regional drone war with multiple actors and unclear chains of command.
Amid the tension, one small opening appeared. The South Korean tanker Universal Winner became the first vessel from Seoul to transit the strait since the war began, carrying roughly two million barrels of crude after high-level diplomatic coordination with Iranian authorities — no tolls paid, no compensation exchanged. It was the first of 26 South Korean-flagged vessels trapped in the region to escape. The passage came weeks after another vessel in the same fleet had been struck by unidentified aircraft, deepening fears about maritime safety.
A Congressional Research Service report meanwhile tallied the aerial campaign's cost: at least 42 American aircraft lost or damaged since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, including an F-35A, four F-15E Strike Eagles, seven KC-135 tankers, 24 Reaper drones, and an AWACS command plane. France, for its part, was positioning demining vessels near the strait — a quiet hedge against the possibility that the world's most vital energy corridor would need to be cleared by international effort, whatever the diplomacy ultimately yields.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a third of the world's seaborne oil passes, has become a chokepoint of geopolitical brinkmanship. Iran has largely sealed it to foreign vessels since late February, when the war with the United States and Israel began, creating the largest disruption to global energy supplies in recorded history. Now, as Donald Trump threatens to strike Iran harder unless it capitulates on nuclear negotiations, Tehran is quietly exploring a different path: working with Oman to establish protocols for safe shipping through the contested waterway.
On Wednesday, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei announced that his government was ready to develop mechanisms with Oman and other coastal states to ensure sustainable security in the strait. He offered no specifics, but the move signals a recognition that the blockade, however strategically useful, cannot be maintained indefinitely without catastrophic economic consequences for the region itself. The announcement came as Trump delivered his ultimatum at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy: negotiate a deal on Iran's nuclear program, or face even more severe military action. "We hit them very hard," Trump said. "We may have to hit them even harder—but maybe not." He claimed Iran's military capacity had been largely destroyed—its navy gone, its air force decimated—and framed the choice starkly: either Iran signs an agreement or the United States finishes what it started.
Trump's rhetoric created immediate market ripples. Treasury bond yields tumbled as investors interpreted his comments about being in the "final stages" of negotiations as a signal that war might be averted. The 30-year bond yield fell from a 19-year peak of 5.18 percent to 5.12 percent. But Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, rejected the framing entirely. In an audio message, he accused the United States of using pressure tactics to restart the war, warning of a "forceful response" and noting that Iran's Revolutionary Guards had made clear any renewed conflict would spread far beyond the Middle East. The gap between Trump's negotiating posture and Iran's defensive stance remained unbridged.
Meanwhile, the conflict was already spreading. On May 17, an unclaimed drone struck an electrical generator near the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates, the only operational nuclear facility in the Arab world. The strike ignited a fire but caused no casualties or radiation leaks. Two additional drones were intercepted by Emirati air defenses. The UAE's Foreign Ministry demanded that Iraq immediately prevent hostile launches from its territory, implicating Iran-backed Shiite militias operating across the border. Three days later, Jordan's military shot down an unidentified drone over the Jerash Governorate, about 50 kilometers north of Amman, with no casualties reported. The incidents suggested the conflict was metastasizing into a broader regional drone war, with multiple actors and unclear command structures.
Yet there were small openings. On May 20, the South Korean tanker Universal Winner successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, the first vessel from Seoul to do so since the war began. The ship, carrying roughly two million barrels of crude oil and operated by HMM with a crew of ten, had been cleared through high-level diplomatic coordination with Iranian authorities. No tolls or compensation were paid. The passage offered a glimmer of possibility: that even amid the blockade and threats, negotiated passage was possible. It was the first of 26 South Korean-flagged vessels stuck in the region to escape, though the others remained trapped. The transit came weeks after another HMM vessel, the HMM Namu, had been struck by unidentified aircraft on May 4, causing an engine room fire and deepening maritime safety fears.
The human cost of the aerial campaign was becoming clearer. A Congressional Research Service report revealed that at least 42 American aircraft had been lost or damaged since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. The losses included four F-15E Strike Eagles, one F-35A Lightning II, one A-10 Thunderbolt II, seven KC-135 Stratotankers, one E-3 Sentry AWACS command plane, two MC-130J Commando II special operations aircraft, 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones, one MQ-4C Triton drone, and one HH-60W Jolly Green II combat rescue helicopter. The CRS noted that these figures remained subject to revision as military officials continued to classify combat data and verify damage from recent sorties. The losses underscored the intensity and cost of the aerial campaign over the preceding months.
France, meanwhile, was preparing for a different kind of intervention. French Defence Minister Catherine Vautrin said Paris had no confirmed evidence yet that mines had been laid in the Strait of Hormuz, despite reports from U.S. media suggesting multiple mines might be present. But France was positioning demining vessels as part of a potential Franco-British maritime mission to safeguard shipping lanes through the strait. The preparation suggested that even as Trump and Iran traded threats, other powers were hedging against the possibility that the conflict would persist and that the world's most vital energy corridor would need to be cleared and secured by international effort. The question hanging over everything remained unanswered: whether the final stages of negotiation would lead to a deal, or whether Trump would follow through on his threat to strike harder.
Notable Quotes
We hit them very hard. We may have to hit them even harder—but maybe not.— President Donald Trump, at U.S. Coast Guard Academy commencement
The enemy's movements show that despite economic and political pressure, it has not abandoned its military objectives and is seeking to start a new war.— Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, in audio message
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would Iran propose cooperation with Oman on Hormuz security while simultaneously blockading the strait?
Because the blockade works as leverage, but it's unsustainable. Iran can't starve the world of oil indefinitely without economic blowback that hits its own allies. Oman is a neutral broker—it has relationships with both sides. Proposing protocols is a way to say: we can control this waterway, but we're willing to manage it rather than destroy it.
Trump keeps saying negotiations are in final stages while also threatening harder strikes. How seriously should we take either claim?
Both are probably true, in a way. Trump uses threat as negotiating tactic—he's signaling that the military option remains real and costly. But the market reaction to his "final stages" comment shows investors believe there's genuine diplomatic movement. The question is whether Iran sees it the same way, or whether they hear only the threats.
The drone incidents in the UAE and Jordan—are those connected to the main Iran-US conflict?
Possibly, but not directly. The UAE suspects Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Jordan doesn't know where its drone came from. That's the dangerous part: the conflict is fragmenting into proxy actions and unclear attribution. It's harder to negotiate your way out of a war when you can't even identify who's attacking you.
What does it mean that one South Korean tanker got through?
It means Iran can be negotiated with on specifics. That ship didn't pay tolls or compensation—it was cleared through diplomatic channels. So the blockade isn't absolute; it's selective. That's actually a sign that both sides are managing the conflict rather than letting it spiral completely.
The aircraft losses—42 planes is a lot. Does that change the military calculus?
It shows the cost is real and mounting. But Trump's claim that Iran's military is "largely gone" suggests the U.S. believes it's winning the attrition war. The question is whether Iran can sustain losses and still credibly threaten escalation. If it can, the war continues. If it can't, Iran has to negotiate.