We determine whether the strait is open or closed
In the long and fractious history of American engagement with Iran, Donald Trump announced Saturday that a framework to end the war between the two nations was nearly complete — a claim as significant as it is contested. The announcement, born of weekend diplomacy across the Gulf and beyond, centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and deferring the deeper question of Iran's nuclear ambitions. Yet the chorus of doubt — from Republican hawks who wanted the war pressed further, from Iranian officials who rejected the premise of the deal's central claim, and from seasoned diplomats who see only the outline of a beginning — suggests that the distance between a declaration and a durable peace remains vast.
- Trump cancelled his son's wedding trip and summoned his top defence officials back to Washington, signalling that something genuinely urgent was in motion — or needed to appear so.
- Senior Republicans including Lindsey Graham, Roger Wicker, and Mike Pompeo broke sharply with the White House, warning that a ceasefire now would surrender every military gain and embolden Tehran for a generation.
- Iran's military flatly contradicted the deal's centrepiece, insisting that the status of the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's alone to determine — not America's, not the Gulf states', and not the subject of any agreement.
- Pakistan's carefully hedged language after mediating the talks — 'a useful opportunity to exchange views' — quietly signalled that the parties remain far from a finalised understanding.
- Veteran diplomats warn that a one-page framework cannot resolve the layered questions of enriched uranium, centrifuges, sanctions, frozen assets, and Iran's regional proxy networks that lie at the heart of any lasting settlement.
Donald Trump announced Saturday that a deal to end the war with Iran was nearly complete, the product of a weekend of phone calls with leaders across the Gulf, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and Jordan. Vice President JD Vance and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth returned to Washington as talks accelerated. Trump posted that an agreement had been 'largely negotiated,' with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as its centrepiece, and cancelled both his son's Bahamas wedding and a planned golf trip to remain at his desk.
The announcement arrived with considerable baggage. Five weeks earlier, Trump had declared that Iran had agreed to open the strait and surrender its enriched uranium — claims that never materialised. The war itself had begun on February 28 with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, followed by a ceasefire on April 8 that held as negotiations resumed.
The backlash from within Trump's own coalition was swift and sharp. Lindsey Graham warned that any deal leaving Iran intact and potentially controlling the strait would be catastrophic for Israel and a gift to Tehran. Roger Wicker called a 60-day ceasefire extension a disaster that would erase the gains of Operation Epic Fury. Mike Pompeo dismissed the framework as something that sounded like it came from the Biden administration. The White House responded with a profanity-laced rebuke, telling Pompeo to leave the work to professionals.
Iran's signals were no less troubling. While the foreign ministry suggested it was working toward a memorandum to end hostilities, Iran's military spokesman directly contradicted Trump's central claim: the Strait of Hormuz, he said, was Iran's to open or close, full stop. State media called Trump's assertions about the strait 'diverged from reality.'
Pakistan, which had been mediating, offered language so cautious it implied the deal was far from done. And veteran diplomats were blunt: a one-page framework could not resolve the genuine complexities of enriched uranium stockpiles, centrifuges, sanctions, frozen assets, and Iran's regional proxies. 'We're a long way away from anything that remotely resembles a formal agreement,' said Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment. The Gulf states themselves, analysts noted, feared both Iran's grip on the waterway and the durability of American protection — a tension no weekend of phone calls had yet resolved.
Donald Trump announced Saturday that a deal to end the war with Iran was nearly complete, the result of weekend phone calls with leaders across the Gulf, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and Jordan. Vice President JD Vance and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth both rushed back to Washington as the negotiations accelerated. Trump posted on social media at 4:30pm that an agreement had been "largely negotiated" and would soon be finalized, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as a centerpiece. He also spoke separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, describing the conversation as productive. The announcement came as Trump cancelled his attendance at his son's wedding in the Bahamas and scrapped a planned trip to his New Jersey golf club to remain in the capital.
Yet the path to this moment was littered with false starts. Just five weeks earlier, on April 17, Trump had proclaimed that Iran had agreed to fully open the strait and surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles—claims that never materialized. The war itself had begun on February 28 with joint US-Israeli air strikes that damaged Iran's military infrastructure, followed by a ceasefire that took hold on April 8 and remained in place as negotiations resumed.
The announcement immediately triggered a backlash from prominent Republicans who had championed the military campaign. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, one of the war's most vocal supporters, warned that any deal allowing Iran to survive and potentially control the strait would be catastrophic for Israel and shift regional power toward Tehran. "Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with," he posted. Senator Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, called a 60-day ceasefire extension a disaster that would erase all gains from Operation Epic Fury. Mike Pompeo, who served as CIA director and then secretary of state under Trump's first administration, dismissed the agreement as sounding like it came from Joe Biden's team and was "not remotely America First." White House communications director Steven Cheung responded with a profanity-laced attack, telling Pompeo to "shut his stupid mouth" and leave the work to professionals.
Iran's own signals were contradictory and troubling. The foreign ministry spokesman said the country was working to finalize a memorandum that would end the war while deferring nuclear discussions. But Iran's military spokesman directly contradicted Trump's core claim, asserting that the Strait of Hormuz status was not for America or Gulf states to decide. "We determine whether the strait is open or closed," he said. Iran's semi-official news agency called Trump's claims about reopening the strait "diverged from reality" and insisted it would "continue to be under Iran's management."
Pakistan, which had been mediating the talks, offered cautious language suggesting the deal remained incomplete. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described Saturday's call as "a useful opportunity to exchange views" and said Pakistan hoped to host the next round of talks soon—language that suggested significant distance remained.
Middle East experts were skeptical that any one-page framework could resolve the genuine complexities at stake. Aaron David Miller, a veteran State Department negotiator now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that if real, the agreement would at least buy time to address the thorniest issues: Iran's highly enriched uranium, other uranium stockpiles, centrifuges, frozen assets, sanctions, and Iran's proxy forces including Hezbollah in Lebanon. "We're a long way away from what I would consider to be anything that remotely resembles a formal agreement on any of the issues," he said. Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran analyst at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, warned that if the campaign ended under current conditions, Iran's leverage over the strait would not weaken but strengthen—and that the Gulf states themselves feared both Iran's control of the waterway and the reliability of American protection.
Notable Quotes
We determine whether the strait is open or closed— Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari
We're a long way away from what I would consider to be anything that remotely resembles a formal agreement on any of the issues— Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why would Trump announce a deal that isn't actually done? He's done this before.
Because the optics matter as much as the substance right now. He's showing movement, showing he can negotiate where others couldn't. But you're right—he claimed victory on the strait in April and nothing happened.
What's the real sticking point here?
Control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump says it will reopen. Iran's military says Iran alone decides whether it's open or closed. Those two statements can't both be true, and that's the core of the deal.
Why are his own Republicans attacking him?
Because they see a military victory being traded away for a piece of paper. They believe the bombing campaign was working, that Iran was weakened, and now Trump is letting them off the hook.
Is Pakistan actually brokering this, or just saying they are?
Their language is deliberately vague. "Useful opportunity to exchange views." That's not the language of a deal about to be signed. It's the language of talks that are still far apart.
What does Iran actually want out of this?
To survive as a state, to keep some leverage, to get sanctions relief eventually. But their military and their diplomats are saying different things, which suggests even Iran's leadership isn't unified on what the deal should look like.
So this could fall apart again?
Very easily. The ceasefire is holding, but the moment either side feels the other has moved the goalposts, the guns could start again.