Crisis after crisis still haunts the world.
On the eve of Indonesia's Independence Day, President Joko Widodo addressed Parliament with a warning that transcended ceremony: the world is bending under the simultaneous weight of war, pandemic, and hunger, and no nation — however resourceful — can absorb that weight indefinitely. With 550 million people slipping into extreme poverty and 345 million facing famine, Indonesia finds itself both a cushion for its own people and a critical node in the global supply of food and energy. Widodo's call for unity was not merely patriotic; it was a recognition that the mathematics of cascading crises eventually outrun even the most careful national arithmetic.
- The Ukraine war and COVID-19 have combined into a single, compounding catastrophe — fracturing supply chains, igniting energy markets, and pushing hundreds of millions toward hunger and destitution.
- Indonesia's own households have felt the tremors directly, with cooking oil prices surging so sharply that students took to the streets before the government imposed a drastic, month-long palm oil export ban.
- The government has spent roughly $34 billion in fuel, gas, and electricity subsidies to shield citizens from the worst — a lifeline that Widodo himself admits cannot hold forever.
- As host of the G-20 summit in November, Indonesia is attempting the near-impossible: keeping a global forum functional while inviting both Putin and Zelenskyy to the same table, with Zelenskyy already signaling he may only appear by video.
- Widodo's message beneath the ceremony was stark — Indonesia has resources and resilience, but the world must find its way back from the edge before the numbers become unsolvable.
President Joko Widodo addressed a Parliament chamber more than half full for the first time in two years, and the occasion felt less like celebration than reckoning. The world, he told lawmakers gathered on the eve of Independence Day, was staggering under overlapping catastrophes — the war in Ukraine tearing open energy markets just as the pandemic continued to drain the global economy. Somewhere between 550 million people were falling into extreme poverty. Another 345 million faced hunger. Some nations, he warned, would not survive the year.
Indonesia was already absorbing the tremors. Russia's invasion had shattered supply chains still fragile from COVID-19, sending cooking oil prices soaring and slowing wheat, soybean, and corn shipments to a trickle. In April, after students flooded the streets over the cost of living, the government banned palm oil exports for a month — a drastic move from a country that, alongside Malaysia, controls 85 percent of the world's supply. The government had also poured roughly $34 billion into fuel, gas, and electricity subsidies to cushion the blow. Widodo acknowledged plainly that this could not continue: the budget would have to be recalculated.
At the same time, Indonesia had become indispensable to a world starved of resources. Coal exports hit record levels in March. Money was flowing in — but so was pressure, as prices at home climbed beyond what ordinary people could afford.
Widodo was also navigating a diplomatic tightrope. As G-20 host, Indonesia had refused to take public sides in the war, with Widodo becoming the first Asian leader to visit both Kyiv and Moscow. For November's summit, he invited both Putin and Zelenskyy — though Zelenskyy has signaled he will join only by video if fighting continues, making the forum as much a stage for absence as for presence.
What Widodo was ultimately saying was this: Indonesia has resources, relative stability, and the will to hold. But not without limit, and not alone. The unity he called for reached beyond his own borders — a quiet plea for the world to step back from the edge before the crisis becomes too large for any nation's arithmetic to solve.
President Joko Widodo stood before Parliament on Tuesday, the chamber more than half full for the first time in two years, and delivered a warning that felt less like ceremony than necessity. The world, he said, was collapsing under the weight of overlapping catastrophes. The war in Ukraine had torn open energy markets just as the pandemic was still draining the global economy. Somewhere between 550 million people were sliding into extreme poverty. Another 345 million faced hunger. Some nations would not survive the year.
"Crisis after crisis still haunts the world," Widodo told the assembled lawmakers and officials gathered on the eve of Indonesia's Independence Day. He called for vigilance, for unity, for the kind of steady nerve that feels increasingly rare. Indonesia, he implied, would need both to weather what was coming.
The country was already feeling the tremors. Russia's invasion of Ukraine had upended supply chains that were still fragile from the pandemic, sending cooking oil prices into the stratosphere. Wheat, soybeans, and corn shipments had slowed to a trickle, cascading through the food system and into household budgets. In April, the government had banned all palm oil exports for a month—a drastic measure taken only after students poured into the streets protesting the cost of living. Indonesia and Malaysia together control 85 percent of the world's palm oil supply. When they squeeze, the world feels it.
Widodo's government had cushioned the blow with money it did not entirely have. The state budget had recorded a surplus of 106 trillion rupiah—about 7.2 billion dollars—but the administration had poured 502 trillion rupiah, or roughly 34 billion dollars, into subsidies for fuel, gas, and electricity. It was a stopgap, not a solution. The president acknowledged this plainly: the subsidies would have to be recalculated. The budget could not absorb this weight forever.
Meanwhile, Indonesia had become indispensable to the world's scramble for resources. As a key exporter of coal, palm oil, and minerals, the country was selling into a market starved by the war. Coal shipments had hit record levels in March, after a brief domestic ban earlier in the year. The money was flowing in, but the pressure was mounting—the pressure to keep exporting, to keep the world supplied, even as prices at home climbed beyond what ordinary people could afford.
Widodo was also trying to thread an impossible needle. As host of the Group of 20 this year, Indonesia had positioned itself as a bridge between the warring powers, refusing to take sides in public even as the conflict reshaped global economics. He had visited both Ukraine and Russia, the first Asian leader to do so. For November's summit, he had invited both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, hoping somehow to keep the forum functional despite the war consuming everything around it. Zelenskyy had already signaled he would not attend in person if fighting continued, opting instead to join by video. The summit, in other words, would be a stage for absence as much as presence.
What Widodo was really saying on Tuesday was this: Indonesia could absorb some of the shock. It had money, resources, and a relatively modest inflation rate compared to other nations. But not indefinitely. Not if the world stayed broken. The subsidies would have to end. The exports would have to be managed. The unity he was calling for was not just national—it was a plea for the world to find its way back from the edge before the mathematics of crisis became impossible to solve.
Citações Notáveis
We must always remain vigilant, cautious and alert. Crisis after crisis still haunts the world.— President Joko Widodo, State of the Nation address
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Indonesia matter so much right now? It's not at war.
Because it feeds the world. Eighty-five percent of global palm oil comes from Indonesia and Malaysia. When prices spike there, they spike everywhere. And Indonesia is also sitting on coal and minerals the world desperately needs.
So Widodo is in a bind—he needs to keep exporting to stay solvent, but his own people can't afford to eat.
Exactly. He's spent 34 billion dollars this year just keeping fuel and food prices from completely collapsing at home. That money has to come from somewhere, and it's not sustainable.
What about his role at the G-20? That seems like a distraction he doesn't need.
It's actually the opposite. By hosting the summit, he's trying to prove Indonesia can be a stabilizing force even when everything is unstable. But it's theater with real stakes—if the summit falls apart, it signals that the world's largest economies can't even talk to each other.
And he's invited both Putin and Zelenskyy?
He invited them both, yes. But Zelenskyy has already said he won't come in person. So the summit will have this strange absence at its center—the war that's causing all the crisis, but not really present.
What does Widodo actually want from his speech?
He's trying to prepare people. Not with false hope, but with the idea that if they stay alert and united, Indonesia can navigate this. But he's also admitting the old tools—the subsidies—won't work much longer.