A cloud over the group for months finally lifting
As Indian markets prepared to open on a cautious Thursday, the day's mood was shaped by forces both distant and immediate — a second round of Trump-Xi talks in Beijing casting long shadows over Asian trade, crude oil holding firm above a hundred dollars, and a domestic earnings season delivering a mosaic of triumph and disappointment. The GIFT Nifty's quiet retreat mirrored a region holding its breath, waiting to learn whether diplomacy or disruption would define the weeks ahead. In such moments, markets reveal themselves not merely as mechanisms of price discovery, but as collective registers of human uncertainty.
- Asian markets fell sharply — Seoul down 2.2%, Tokyo down 1.2% — as investors grew anxious over the second day of Trump-Xi negotiations in Beijing, with Brent crude stubbornly holding at $107 a barrel adding to the pressure.
- Wall Street's overnight gains, led by a 370-point Dow rally on strong Cisco earnings, offered little comfort to Indian equities more sensitive to regional sentiment and energy costs.
- A government-mandated ₹3 hike in petrol and diesel prices — the first in four years — jolted oil marketing companies into focus, while CNG price increases rippled through gas distributors in major cities.
- The Adani Group stood at a potential turning point, with US authorities reportedly moving toward dropping criminal fraud charges against Gautam Adani, a development that could reopen international capital markets to the conglomerate.
- Earnings season painted a divided picture: JSW Steel and Apollo Tyres posted strong numbers, while Voltas, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, and Hindustan Construction all reported significant profit declines.
- Capital market activity continued in parallel, with GQG Partners offloading an Adani Enterprises stake, Vedanta Resources earning a credit upgrade, and HFCL announcing a new defence manufacturing investment in Andhra Pradesh.
Indian equity markets faced a subdued opening on Thursday, with GIFT Nifty futures slipping 62 points to 23,667 as Asian peers retreated broadly. The backdrop was dominated by the second day of talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing — a negotiation with the potential to redraw regional trade patterns — compounded by Brent crude holding above $107 a barrel. Seoul and Tokyo led Asian declines, while Wall Street's overnight gains, driven by strong Cisco earnings, were unlikely to offset the regional caution.
On the domestic front, the government's decision to raise petrol and diesel prices by ₹3 per litre in four major cities — the first such hike in four years — moved oil marketing companies like Indian Oil, BPCL, and HPCL into sharp focus. Compressed natural gas prices also rose in Delhi, continuing a trend seen in Mumbai the previous day, reflecting the broader energy squeeze tied to the ongoing West Asia conflict.
The Adani Group attracted attention of a different kind, with reports suggesting US authorities were close to dropping criminal fraud charges against Gautam Adani entirely. A resolution could prove transformative for the Ahmedabad-based conglomerate, potentially restoring its access to international capital markets and clearing the path for resumed expansion.
Q4 earnings season delivered a mixed verdict across corporate India. JSW Steel reported a headline profit of ₹19,243 crore, though the bulk was driven by an exceptional item; the board approved a dividend and a ₹14,000 crore fundraising plan. Apollo Tyres saw net profit more than triple to ₹631 crore, and United Spirits posted a 28% profit rise. On the other side, Voltas saw profit fall by more than half, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles reported a 31% decline despite revenue growth, and Hindustan Construction's earnings shrank by over a third.
Beyond earnings, GQG Partners sold a ₹1,435 crore stake in Adani Enterprises, Vedanta Resources received a credit rating upgrade from S&P, DLF set an ambitious ₹20,000 crore sales target for the fiscal year, and HFCL announced a ₹230 crore investment in a new defence facility in Andhra Pradesh — a reminder that even on uncertain days, the machinery of capital keeps moving.
The Indian stock market was bracing for a muted start on Thursday morning, caught between the crosscurrents of geopolitical tension and corporate earnings season. As trading opened, the GIFT Nifty futures index had already slipped into negative territory, down 62 points or roughly a quarter percent, settling at 23,667. The weakness mirrored a broader retreat across Asia, where Seoul's KOSPI had fallen 2.2 percent and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 had dropped 1.2 percent. Hong Kong and Sydney were also in the red, each down less than a percent. The immediate trigger was clear: investors were watching the second day of talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing, a high-stakes negotiation that could reshape trade flows across the region. The uncertainty was compounded by crude oil prices that remained stubbornly elevated, with Brent crude trading at $107 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate hovering near $102.
Wall Street had managed to close higher overnight, offering at least a small counterweight to the Asian gloom. The Dow Jones had climbed 370 points, or 0.75 percent, to finish at 50,063, buoyed by stronger-than-expected earnings from Cisco Systems. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had each gained less than one percent. But those gains seemed unlikely to provide much lift to Indian equities, which were more attuned to the regional mood and the oil price question.
The real action on the domestic front was being driven by earnings announcements and policy shifts. Oil marketing companies—Indian Oil, BPCL, and HPCL—were in focus after the government raised retail petrol and diesel prices by three rupees in four major cities, the first increase in four years. The move reflected the global energy squeeze that had intensified since the start of the West Asia conflict. Gas distribution companies were also moving, with compressed natural gas prices climbing two rupees per kilogram in Delhi, following similar hikes in Mumbai the day before.
The Adani Group was drawing particular attention for reasons beyond the market's usual calculus. US authorities appeared to be moving toward resolving the fraud charges against Gautam Adani, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Justice Department could announce as soon as this week that it was dropping the criminal case entirely. For the conglomerate, which is headquartered in Ahmedabad, such a resolution would clear a major obstacle to returning to international capital markets and resuming its expansion plans.
Earnings season was in full swing, with more than twenty companies reporting results. JSW Steel had posted a consolidated net profit of 19,243 crore rupees in the fourth quarter, though much of that gain—17,888 crore rupees—came from an exceptional item. The company's board recommended a dividend of 7.1 rupees per share and approved raising up to 14,000 crore rupees through debt and equity issuances. Apollo Tyres had reported a more than threefold jump in net profit to 631 crore rupees, with revenue from operations at 7,336 crore rupees. United Spirits, the Diageo-controlled liquor maker, had seen consolidated profit rise 28 percent year-over-year to 539 crore rupees, with revenue climbing 4.67 percent to 6,855 crore rupees; the board recommended a final dividend of 11 rupees per share.
Not all results were celebratory. Voltas, the air-conditioning and engineering services company, had seen consolidated net profit plummet 51.87 percent to 113 crore rupees, though it still recommended a dividend of 4 rupees per share. Hindustan Construction Company reported a 34.56 percent decline in net profit to 59 crore rupees, though its order book stood at 12,971 crore rupees as of March 31. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles had posted a 31.29 percent drop in consolidated net profit to 5,878 crore rupees, despite revenue rising 7 percent year-over-year to 1.05 lakh crore rupees.
On the capital markets side, GQG Partners, a US-based investment firm, had sold nearly 59 lakh shares representing a 0.45 percent stake in Adani Enterprises for 1,435 crore rupees through an open market transaction. Vedanta Resources, the London-based parent of Vedanta Limited, had received a ratings upgrade from S&P Global to BB from B+, reflecting improved financial position and cost efficiency following the demerger. Real estate developer DLF was targeting 20,000 crore rupees in sales bookings for the fiscal year. And HFCL, the telecom equipment maker, announced plans to invest approximately 230 crore rupees in a new defence manufacturing facility in Andhra Pradesh's Sri Satya Sai district.
Citas Notables
The Justice Department may announce that they are dropping the charges as soon as this week, clearing the decks for the Ahmedabad headquartered conglomerate to return to international capital markets.— People familiar with the matter regarding Adani Group
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does what Trump and Xi are discussing in Beijing matter to someone buying Indian stocks today?
Because trade flows between the US and China ripple through every emerging market. If tensions escalate, capital gets nervous and flows out of riskier bets. India gets caught in that undertow.
And the oil prices—why are those elevated right now?
The West Asia conflict has kept supply tight. At $107 a barrel, it's expensive for India, which imports most of its oil. That's why the government just raised petrol and diesel prices for the first time in four years.
So the OMCs benefit from that price hike?
Yes, but it's complicated. Higher prices help their margins, but they also mean consumers pay more, which can slow growth elsewhere in the economy.
What's the significance of the Adani situation potentially being resolved?
It's been a cloud over the group for months. If the US drops the charges, Adani can go back to raising money internationally and executing its expansion plans. That's worth billions to the group's future.
Looking at the earnings, what stands out?
The divergence. Some companies like Apollo Tyres are thriving. Others like Voltas are struggling badly. It's not a rising tide lifting all boats—it's a selective recovery.
What should someone watching this market be alert to?
Watch how the Trump-Xi talks conclude. That will set the tone for the next few weeks. And keep an eye on oil—if it stays above $105, that's a headwind for the broader economy.