Whoever bets against Petrobras will lose
Ibovespa closed Friday down 0.61% to 179,364 points, completing a brutal week with 4.99% losses amid global risk aversion. US payroll disappointed with -92k jobs in February versus +59k expected, while Trump's demand for Iran's 'unconditional surrender' killed diplomatic hopes.
- Ibovespa fell 4.99% for the week, worst performance since November 2022
- US payroll contracted by 92,000 jobs in February vs. expected gain of 59,000
- Brent crude surged 8.52% to above $92 per barrel on Middle East tensions
- Petrobras reported 15.56 billion real net income in Q4 2025, reversing prior-year loss
Brazil's Ibovespa fell 4.99% this week, its worst performance since November 2022, pressured by weak US employment data and escalating Middle East conflict. Domestic bright spots include Petrobras' strong Q4 results and industrial production surprise.
The Brazilian stock market closed out its worst week in more than three years on Friday, with the Ibovespa sinking 0.61% to finish at 179,364 points. The damage was already done by then. Over the five trading days, the index had surrendered 4.99% of its value—the heaviest weekly loss since November 2022, when it fell exactly 5.00%. By Friday's close, the cumulative toll felt less like a market correction and more like capitulation.
Two forces collided to create this wreckage. The first arrived at 10:30 a.m. Brasília time: the US employment report for February. The payroll number came in at minus 92,000 jobs, a shock that landed far below the expected gain of 59,000. This wasn't a minor miss. It was the kind of data that forces central banks to reconsider their entire playbook. The Federal Reserve had been signaling a return to its singular focus on inflation control, but this jobs report pulled the rug out from under that narrative. Analysts at Bradesco noted the obvious: the Fed would now have to weigh employment trends alongside price pressures in its policy decisions.
The second force was already in motion, but it accelerated into something darker on Friday morning. President Donald Trump, in a post on his social network, declared there would be no agreement with Iran except on terms of "unconditional surrender." That single phrase erased whatever diplomatic hopes had flickered to life the day before, when news broke that Iran had reached out to the CIA for talks. The markets had briefly entertained the possibility of a negotiated off-ramp. Trump's statement slammed that door shut. By midday, the Qatari energy minister was telling the Financial Times that oil could hit $150 a barrel within weeks if tankers couldn't navigate the Strait of Hormuz. The Brent crude contract surged 8.52% on the day, closing above $92 per barrel.
New York's major indices fell hard. The Dow dropped 0.95%, the S&P 500 fell 1.33%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.59%—all marking their worst week of the year. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, spiked 16%. Volatility indexes across global markets flashed red. European bourses closed lower, with the Stoxx 600 tracking toward its worst week in nearly a year. The geopolitical risk premium was no longer theoretical. It was pricing into every asset class.
Brazil's domestic economy, by contrast, offered some shelter from the storm. Industrial production in January surprised to the upside, rising 1.8% month-over-month when economists had expected just 0.7%. The IGP-DI inflation measure fell more than anticipated in February. These were genuine bright spots, but they couldn't offset the global headwinds. The real did recover some ground against the dollar, falling 0.81% to 5.244 reais per dollar after a sharp spike the day before. Interest rate futures, however, climbed across the entire curve—a sign that traders were pricing in more monetary tightening ahead.
Petrobras emerged as the week's standout performer, at least among major Brazilian stocks. The oil company reported fourth-quarter net income of 15.56 billion reais, reversing a 17.04 billion real loss from the same quarter a year earlier. The turnaround was powered by record petroleum exports and lower operating costs. The company's financial officer, Fernando Melgarejo, told analysts that if oil prices remained elevated, Petrobras would consider distributing extraordinary dividends beyond its regular payout. CEO Magda Chambriard struck a defiant note in the earnings call: "Whoever bets against Petrobras will lose." The stock surged as much as 5.5% during the session. But even Petrobras couldn't lift the broader market. Vale fell 2.99%, the major banks retreated with Bradesco down 1.41%, and Embraer plunged 8.05% despite strong quarterly results and analyst praise.
The week ahead promises no relief. US inflation data arrives Wednesday, Brazil's IPCA inflation report comes Thursday. And there's a calendar quirk: daylight saving time begins in the United States on Sunday, which means the B3 will shift its trading hours starting Monday to align with New York's clock. It's a small logistical detail in a week when the world feels anything but small.
Citações Notáveis
The Fed will need to reconsider employment trends alongside inflation in its policy decisions— Bradesco analysts, on February payroll implications
Markets remain in risk-aversion mode as concerns grow about conflict duration and potential energy supply disruptions— Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones strategist, to CNBC
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why did a jobs report from the United States matter so much to Brazilian investors?
Because the Fed controls global monetary policy in a way no other central bank does. When employment weakens, it changes the calculus for interest rates everywhere. Brazil's own rates are already high—the market was pricing in more hikes. A weaker US jobs picture could eventually mean lower rates there, which would make Brazilian assets more attractive. But first, it creates uncertainty. Investors hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news.
And Trump's statement about Iran—that seemed to be the final blow.
It was the moment hope died. The day before, there were whispers that Iran had contacted the CIA. Markets live on whispers like that. They were pricing in a negotiated settlement. Trump's demand for unconditional surrender told everyone: there is no off-ramp. This conflict is going to run its course, whatever that means. Oil jumped eight percent in a single day.
Petrobras did well, though. Why couldn't that lift the whole market?
One company can't swim against a tide like that. Petrobras benefited from the very thing that hurt everything else—higher oil prices. But the broader market was selling everything that wasn't directly tied to energy. Banks, manufacturers, retailers—all under pressure from higher rates and geopolitical fear. Petrobras was a life raft in a sinking ship.
The industrial production number was good. Why didn't that matter?
It did matter, but only domestically. It suggested Brazil's economy wasn't collapsing. But it couldn't compete with the global narrative. When the world is worried about energy supplies and inflation, a single month of decent factory output in Brazil feels like a footnote.
What happens next week?
More data, more uncertainty. The US inflation report will be crucial—if it's hot, the Fed stays put on rates. If it's cool, maybe there's room for cuts later. Brazil reports its own inflation number. And the market will keep watching the Strait of Hormuz. If tankers start getting hit regularly, oil goes higher, which helps Petrobras but hurts everyone else. The week isn't over until it's over.