If Houston can catch the Red Raiders early, they could seize control
In the quiet margins of preseason attention, Houston football has been doing the patient work of institution-building — and year three under Willie Fritz may be when that labor becomes visible to everyone. With elite returning production, a retained coaching staff, and a schedule that offers a genuine path through the conference, the Cougars are not merely hoping for relevance in the Big 12; they are positioned to claim it. The oldest truth in sport applies here: the teams that endure are rarely the ones that arrived loudest.
- Houston finished last season ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since 2021, signaling that Fritz's program has crossed from rebuilding into contending.
- The Cougars rank second in Big 12 returning production and crack the national top ten in offensive firepower returning — continuity is their competitive weapon.
- Both coordinators are back, including defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, whose unit held opponents to under 23 points per game last season.
- Houston's schedule conspicuously avoids BYU, Arizona, and Arizona State, while placing Texas Tech — a team navigating a quarterback controversy — directly in their path in September.
- A win over Texas Tech in the conference opener could hand Houston control of the Big 12 race before the favorites have fully found their footing.
- If the Cougars navigate that path, a College Football Playoff berth shifts from wishful thinking to a concrete destination.
The Big 12's preseason conversation belongs to Texas Tech and BYU, but Houston has been doing something quieter and potentially more consequential: building. Willie Fritz enters his third year as head coach, and that milestone matters — it's when systems mature, when players stop learning and start executing, when small advantages compound into something real.
The roster reflects that compounding. Houston ranks second in the Big 12 in returning production and sits in the national top ten for returning offensive firepower. Crucially, both coordinators return, including defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, whose unit ranked in the top 50 in scoring defense and top 40 in rushing yards allowed per attempt last season. That kind of institutional knowledge is difficult to replicate and easy to underestimate.
The schedule may be Houston's most underappreciated asset. The Cougars avoid BYU, Arizona, and Arizona State entirely, and they open conference play against Texas Tech in September — a Red Raiders program still sorting through the fallout of a quarterback controversy. Running back Makhi Hughes, who rushed for over 1,400 yards and 17 touchdowns at Tulane in 2024 before transferring, gives Houston a veteran presence capable of deciding close games.
The opportunity is real and the window is open. If Houston defeats Texas Tech early, they seize control of the conference race before the favorites recognize the threat. A Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff berth would not be a surprise ending to this story — they would be its logical conclusion.
The Big 12 has its favorites, and they're not hard to spot. Texas Tech and BYU have drawn the attention of most observers heading into the 2026 season—the Red Raiders for their sheer roster talent, the Cougars for nearly reaching the College Football Playoff last year before losing the conference championship to those same Red Raiders. But there's a third team worth watching, one that's been quietly building toward something significant: Houston.
Willie Fritz is in his third year as Houston's head coach, and that's typically when a program finds its rhythm. Last season, he guided the Cougars to ten wins and a spot in the final AP Poll rankings—their first appearance there since 2021. That kind of trajectory doesn't happen by accident. It happens when a coach has time to install his system, when players understand what's expected, and when continuity compounds small advantages into real ones.
Houston's roster tells that story. The Cougars rank second in the entire Big 12 in returning production, and they crack the top ten nationally in returning offensive firepower. More importantly, both coordinators are back. Defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, a young coach on the rise, oversaw a unit last season that ranked in the top 50 in scoring defense, allowing just 22.9 points per game, and top 40 in rushing yards allowed per attempt at 3.7. That's the kind of stability that matters when you're trying to compete at the highest level.
The schedule works in Houston's favor in ways that could prove decisive. The Cougars avoid three teams that could derail a season: BYU, Arizona, and Arizona State. More significantly, they get Texas Tech in September to open conference play. This is the kind of opportunity that doesn't come around often. If Houston can catch the Red Raiders early—before their roster fully gels, before they sort out their quarterback situation in the wake of the Brendan Sorsby gambling controversy—the Cougars could seize control of the conference race before anyone else realizes what's happening.
The roster additions support this possibility. Running back Makhi Hughes arrived from Oregon, a player who didn't produce much in Lubbock but put up over 1,400 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns during his 2024 season at Tulane. He represents the kind of veteran talent that can make a difference in close games. The transfer portal haul wasn't flashy overall, but it was purposeful.
What makes Houston genuinely interesting isn't just the pieces in place—it's the timing. Fritz has had time to build. His coordinators understand the system. The players know what's expected. The schedule offers a genuine path to the Big 12 title, one that runs through Lubbock in September. If the Cougars can win that game, they'll control their own destiny for the rest of the season. And if they do that, a College Football Playoff berth in December becomes a real possibility, not a hope.
Citações Notáveis
Houston ranks second in the Big 12 in returning production and top-ten in the country in returning offensive production— Analysis of 2026 roster composition
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does everyone seem to be sleeping on Houston when they have this much returning production?
Because Texas Tech and BYU have the louder names and the recent track records. But Houston's advantage is that nobody's paying attention yet. That's valuable.
The schedule avoiding BYU and Arizona State—is that really that significant?
It is when you're trying to win a conference. Every win matters, and Houston gets to avoid two teams that could knock them off. But the real game is Texas Tech in September. That's the one that changes everything.
What happens if they lose to Texas Tech?
Then they're in the same position as everyone else—chasing. But if they win, they're in the driver's seat. That's why that game matters so much.
Is Willie Fritz actually a good coach, or is this just the third-year bump?
He took Houston to ten wins and back into the AP Poll after they'd been out since 2021. That's not luck. That's building something real.
What about the transfer portal class? Hughes seems like the only notable addition.
Right. It wasn't flashy, but it was targeted. They didn't need to overhaul everything. They needed to add depth in the right places, and Hughes gives them a proven back who's had success before.
So you're saying Houston actually has a real shot at the Big 12 title?
I'm saying the pieces are there. The coordinators are back. The schedule is forgiving. And they get the favorite early. If everything breaks right, yes.