We simply must evolve planetary defense to protect that as well.
As humanity extends its technological nervous system into orbit and beyond, two researchers at the University of Edinburgh have won the Schweickart Prize for recognizing a vulnerability we have been slow to name: the thousands of satellites and future off-world installations we depend upon are exposed to the same cosmic hazards we have long feared for Earth itself. Brian Murphy and Richard Cannon's proposal, WARDEN, calls for an international body to monitor meteoroid storms and asteroid threats to space infrastructure — a quiet but consequential expansion of what planetary defense means in an age of mega-constellations and lunar ambitions. Their work arrives at a moment when the gap between our reach into space and our readiness to protect what we place there is growing wider by the launch.
- Satellite numbers have exploded from under 1,000 to over 17,000 since 2009, and meteoroid exposure has scaled with them — by as much as a hundredfold — with potential annual damage costs exceeding $1.2 billion.
- Three documented meteoroid storms are approaching in 2028, 2033, and 2034, and past events have already scarred ESA and NASA satellites despite existing shielding measures.
- The current response is fragmented: individual operators like SpaceX adjust solar panels and add shielding, but no coordinated international system exists to monitor threats or share warnings across the industry.
- Murphy and Cannon's WARDEN proposal would close that gap by creating a third pillar of planetary defense alongside Earth-focused asteroid networks, extending protection to orbital infrastructure and future moon bases.
- Armed with a $10,000 prize, the researchers are convening the International Commission on Space Infrastructure Resilience at Edinburgh — turning a winning proposal into an institution before the next storm arrives.
Brian Murphy woke from a dream about a meteoroid storm and, in that half-awake moment, found his way to the Schweickart Prize. Together with colleague Richard Cannon at the University of Edinburgh, he has won this year's award for planetary defense innovation — not for shielding Earth from asteroids, but for proposing to protect the vast and growing web of satellites and infrastructure humanity is placing in orbit.
The shift in focus reflects a transformation in the orbital environment. In 2009, fewer than 1,000 satellites circled Earth. Today more than 17,000 do, and the pace of launches is accelerating. Murphy estimates that meteoroid exposure has increased by a factor of ten to one hundred in that span. A storm damaged ESA's Olympus 1 in 1993; another struck NASA's Landsat 5 in 2009 at a cost of roughly $1.2 billion. With the current satellite population and the infrastructure planned for the 2030s, Murphy warns the scale of potential damage is orders of magnitude larger — and the time to act is now.
The threat is not speculative. Meteoroid storms tied to known meteor showers are predictable, and Murphy and Cannon have identified three major events in 2028, 2033, and 2034 that pose documented risks to spacecraft. Operators like SpaceX already take precautions, but the response remains fragmented and reactive. No international body coordinates monitoring or shares warnings across the industry.
WARDEN — Warning Network for Asset Resilience From Dusts, Ejecta and NEOs — would change that. Designed as a complement to existing Earth-focused asteroid networks, it would form what Murphy calls a 'trifecta of planetary defense,' extending coverage to orbital assets and eventually to moon bases and other off-world infrastructure. The proposal also accounts for emerging risks: asteroid mining debris, cometary fragments, and objects like 2024 YR4, which last year carried a small probability of striking the moon and generating a two-kilometer crater.
The $10,000 prize will seed the first meetings of the International Commission on Space Infrastructure Resilience, beginning at Edinburgh, with gatherings planned every six months and a growing network of small-body researchers. What started as a dream now has a timeline, a funding mechanism, and a name. Whether governments and the space industry will build the systems Murphy and Cannon are calling for — before the next storm arrives — remains the open question.
Brian Murphy woke from a vivid dream about a meteoroid storm slamming into Earth and decided, in that half-awake moment, to check whether the vision might connect to the Schweickart Prize. It did. Now, along with his colleague Richard Cannon at the University of Edinburgh, Murphy has won this year's award for planetary defense innovation—not for protecting Earth itself, but for protecting the thousands of satellites and future infrastructure humanity is rapidly placing in orbit.
The shift in focus marks a quiet but significant expansion of how we think about cosmic threats. For decades, planetary defense has meant one thing: keeping killer asteroids away from our planet. But as SpaceX's Starlink constellation and other mega-constellations have transformed the orbital environment, a new vulnerability has emerged. The satellites we depend on for communication, navigation, and data are now exposed to the same meteoroid streams and asteroid fragments that once seemed like a distant concern. Murphy and Cannon's winning proposal, called WARDEN—Warning Network for Asset Resilience From Dusts, Ejecta and NEOs—would create an international commission to monitor and coordinate responses to these threats across Earth orbit and beyond, extending all the way to the moon.
The numbers tell the story. In 2009, fewer than 1,000 satellites orbited Earth. Today, more than 17,000 are up there, and the rate of launches shows no sign of slowing. Murphy estimates that our exposure to meteoroid damage has increased by a factor of ten to one hundred in that span. A single meteoroid storm damaged the European Space Agency's Olympus 1 satellite in 1993; another struck NASA's Landsat 5 in 2009. The cost of that earlier damage, Murphy notes, was around $1.2 billion. "If we have 100 times that now, and potentially 1,000 times that in the next decade," he said, "this is going to be a big problem, and we need to start addressing that question now."
The threat is not abstract. Meteoroid storms are predictable events tied to known meteor showers. Murphy and Cannon identified three major storms coming in 2028, 2033, and 2034—the Perseids and Leonids—that historically have been damaging to spacecraft. Satellite operators already know this. SpaceX equips Starlink satellites with extra shielding and can flatten their solar panels to reduce exposure during predicted storms. Starcloud, a Seattle-area venture planning to launch tens of thousands of data center satellites, acknowledges the risk, though the company is still focused on engineering its first satellites. But the current approach is fragmented and reactive. There is no coordinated international system for monitoring these threats or sharing information across operators.
Murphy and Cannon propose to change that by creating WARDEN as a complement to existing planetary defense networks—the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group—which focus on threats to Earth. Their new body would fill a gap, creating what Murphy calls "a trifecta of planetary defense" with checks and balances across all three systems. The proposal goes beyond satellites. As humanity plans moon bases for the 2030s and considers orbital fuel depots and other infrastructure, the risks multiply. Last year, NASA tracked an asteroid called 2024 YR4 that had a small chance of hitting the moon in 2032. An impact by such an object would create a crater two kilometers wide. The moon bases of the future will face threats not only from passing asteroids but from cometary fragments and debris blasted into space by asteroid mining operations.
Murphy and Cannon won a $10,000 award and a museum-quality trophy topped with a meteorite. They plan to use the money to fund meetings that will establish the International Commission on Space Infrastructure Resilience, or ICSIR, beginning with a gathering at the University of Edinburgh. They envision meetings every six months, an online presence, and a growing network of experts from the small-body research community. The prize itself is named for Apollo 9 astronaut Rusty Schweickart, a longtime advocate for planetary defense who noted in a statement that as human activity expands beyond Earth's protective atmosphere, "the number of passing objects capable of causing serious damage to both life and critical infrastructure increases dramatically."
What began as a dream has become a concrete proposal with a timeline and a funding mechanism. Murphy sees the prize as a beginning. "We're about to expand into the final frontier, further than we've ever gone before, and bring with us the critical infrastructure for our civilization," he said. "So we simply must evolve planetary defense to protect that as well." The question now is whether the space industry, governments, and the international community will move quickly enough to build the monitoring and coordination systems that Murphy and Cannon are calling for—before the next damaging meteoroid storm arrives.
Notable Quotes
If we have 100 times that now, and potentially 1,000 times that in the next decade, this is going to be a big problem, and we need to start addressing that question now.— Brian Murphy, University of Edinburgh researcher
We're about to expand into the final frontier, further than we've ever gone before, and bring with us the critical infrastructure for our civilization. So we simply must evolve planetary defense to protect that as well.— Brian Murphy
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does this matter now, specifically? Satellites have been in orbit for decades.
The scale changed overnight. We went from a thousand satellites to seventeen thousand in fifteen years. That's not a gradual shift—it's an exponential one. The risk exposure jumped by orders of magnitude, but the warning systems didn't.
So it's not that meteoroid storms are new.
Not at all. They've been hitting satellites for decades. We just had fewer targets. Now we have thousands of targets, and more are launching every week. The math becomes urgent.
What does WARDEN actually do that isn't already being done?
Right now, satellite operators protect themselves individually—SpaceX does its own shielding, its own maneuvers. But there's no coordinated international system for tracking threats or sharing predictions. WARDEN would be that coordination layer, talking to the existing asteroid warning networks but focused specifically on orbital infrastructure.
And the moon bases—why include them in this framework?
Because they're coming in the 2030s, and they'll face the same threats. An asteroid impact on a moon base would be catastrophic. We need to start thinking about planetary defense as something that extends beyond Earth's atmosphere, not just above it.
Murphy said he dreamed this up. How does a dream become a prize-winning proposal?
He woke up and asked a simple question: Is this real? Then he did the calculations. The dream was the spark, but the science was already there—he just connected the dots that others hadn't quite put together yet.
What happens if WARDEN doesn't get built?
Satellites keep launching, meteoroid storms keep coming, and we'll keep absorbing damage we could have prevented. The cost will be measured in billions and in the loss of infrastructure we depend on.