Germany considers raising taxes on childless adults to plug care insurance deficit

Germany's government is quietly preparing to make childless adults pay more for long-term care. An internal Health Ministry document that leaked to German media this week proposes raising the care insurance contribution for people without children from 4.2% to 4.3% of their income—a 0.1 percentage point increase that would help plug a staggering 22.5 billion euro shortfall projected through the end of 2028.

The arithmetic of German care insurance reflects a deliberate policy choice: parents pay between 3.1% and 3.6% of their earnings into the system, depending on how many children they have, while childless adults have long paid a higher rate. That surcharge begins at age 23. The government's logic is straightforward, if contentious: people who raise children are investing in the next generation of workers and taxpayers who will eventually support the entire social system. Those without children should bear a larger share of the burden.

But Germany faces a problem that no tax adjustment can easily solve. One in five Germans is now 67 or older, and that proportion will only grow as the massive post-war generation moves into retirement. The generations that follow are smaller, with fewer children per family. The result is a demographic squeeze: fewer workers supporting more retirees, more elderly people needing care, and a system designed for a different population pyramid. The care insurance program covers people who need permanent assistance—the elderly, those with chronic illnesses, people with disabilities—but unlike health insurance, it doesn't cover all their expenses. The gaps are widening.

The proposal has found support within Chancellor Friedrich Merz's governing coalition. The Social Democrats, the second-largest coalition partner, have signaled openness to the idea. Christos Pantazis, the SPD's health policy expert, acknowledged that it's reasonable to "discuss different mechanisms, including the question of higher contributions for childless people," given the system's financial pressures. He called for "frank discussion about solidarity-based and sustainable long-term financing." But he also offered a crucial caveat: a tax increase alone "can contribute to stabilization, but it does not replace comprehensive structural reform." The Bavarian Christian Social Union, sister party to Merz's CDU, also backs the measure. Katrin Staffler, the federal commissioner for long-term care, framed it as fair: parents make an important contribution to maintaining social security systems, and when today's children grow up and pay contributions as adults, they will help finance care for people without children—a debt owed primarily to their parents' educational efforts.

But critics across the political spectrum argue that the government is treating symptoms while ignoring the disease. The Greens called the proposal an "immature isolated measure" that substitutes for a "viable overall concept," warning that it creates neither trust nor stable financing. The Left Party dismissed it as cosmetic—a measure that "does not come close to solving the care insurance problem." Evelyn Schötz, the party's expert on the issue, argued it would make the system "even more unjust than it already is." She and others point to a structural flaw: wealthy Germans can opt out of the public system and buy private insurance instead, draining revenue from the public pool. Including private insurers in the public system, they argue, would be far more effective than squeezing childless workers.

Verena Bentele, president of the VdK social association, called the proposal unfair because it "unilaterally overburdens people without children," many of whom did not choose that status. A 0.1% increase, she noted, would have "only a very small financial effect" and would not close the care insurance gap. Thomas Knieling, executive director of the German Association for Assistance to the Elderly and Disabled, dismissed it as "a short-term measure without long-term perspective," one that cannot substitute for sustainable reform. Even Andreas Storm, former CDU health politician and now chairman of the DAK insurance company, warned that the public care system "needs rapid rescue measures," and that the proposals on the table do not solve the problem. "If nothing happens, several care funds will soon need financial assistance to avoid insolvency," he said.

The Health Ministry has not commented on the leaked proposal but told news agencies it plans to present a care reform bill. The announcement was expected in May but has been delayed until early July. What is already known: Health Minister Nina Warken intends to reduce subsidies for nursing home admissions and may restrict access to care benefits more broadly. The government is caught between the mathematics of an aging society and the politics of asking someone to pay more. A 0.1% increase on childless workers will not resolve that tension.