What are you going to do, not get gas?
Since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28th, the ancient calculus of war and commerce has reasserted itself at the most ordinary of places — the gas pump. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil once flowed freely, has driven Brent crude past $108 a barrel and pushed the American national gas average to $3.84 per gallon, its highest point since 2023. What unfolds at the geopolitical level is now being measured, cent by cent, in the daily lives of drivers from Mississippi to Pennsylvania — a reminder that the costs of conflict are rarely confined to the battlefield.
- Gas prices have surged nearly ninety cents per gallon in under three weeks, reaching levels not seen since 2023, as Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz chokes off a fifth of the world's oil supply.
- Diesel has climbed to $5.07 a gallon nationally, hitting truck drivers and supply chains with a double burden that threatens to push inflation deeper into everyday goods and services.
- The White House and the International Energy Agency have scrambled to respond — releasing emergency stockpiles, easing sanctions on Venezuelan and Russian oil, and waiving maritime shipping laws — but analysts warn relief at the pump is still weeks away.
- Middle- and low-income households are already cutting budgets, with consumers paying over sixty dollars to fill a tank, while economists caution that sustained fuel costs could freeze spending on homes, cars, and beyond.
- The conflict has no clear end in sight, and with spring's seasonal price uptick already underway, the trajectory of costs depends almost entirely on the next move in a war that began less than three weeks ago.
At a gas station in Mississippi, a veteran who served as an Army medic watched the pump climb past sixty dollars and said simply that not everyone can afford what this war is costing. She is far from alone.
Since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began February 28th, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has risen from $2.98 to $3.84 — the highest since September 2023, a jump of nearly ninety cents in less than three weeks. The cause traces directly to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway Iran has effectively shut to tanker traffic. That strait once carried about one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply. With it closed, regional producers have cut output, and Brent crude has surged past $108 a barrel, up from roughly $70 just weeks ago.
For drivers, the pain is immediate. A Louisiana motorist is getting far less gas for far more money. A Pennsylvania flatbed truck driver is absorbing the hit twice — at the personal pump and for his rig, where diesel has climbed to $5.07 a gallon, its steepest level since 2022. Not everyone is hurting: in West Texas, higher oil prices mean more drilling, more work, and more income for communities built around the industry. President Trump has leaned into that framing, arguing that rising barrel prices benefit American producers. But economists note the U.S. still depends on imported heavy crude that domestic wells don't supply, leaving the country exposed to global price swings regardless.
The response from Washington has been swift but uncertain. The International Energy Agency announced the release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. The administration eased sanctions on Venezuelan and temporarily Russian oil and invoked a waiver of the century-old Jones Act to ease shipping constraints. Analysts caution, however, that crude is purchased in advance and new supply takes time to reach the corner gas station.
The deeper worry is duration. A Georgetown finance professor warns that when households spend more on fuel, they cut back everywhere else — and it's middle- and low-income families who feel that most acutely. Higher fuel costs ripple through grocery transport, utility bills, and consumer confidence, slowing decisions about homes and cars in ways that take months to fully register. Spring's seasonal price uptick is already underway, California is averaging $5.56 a gallon, and every state is higher than it was three weeks ago. Where prices go from here depends almost entirely on a war that shows no sign of quick resolution.
At a gas station in Mississippi this week, Thelma Williams watched the pump meter climb past sixty dollars and couldn't hide her shock. Williams, a veteran who served in the Army Reserves as a medic, said she just wants the war to end — and the prices to come down. "Everybody might not be financially able to meet the demands," she said. She is far from alone.
Since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28th, the price of gasoline at American pumps has climbed sharply and steadily. By Wednesday, the national average for a gallon of regular gas had reached $3.84, according to motor club AAA — up from $2.98 the day before the war began. That's the highest the country has seen since September 2023, a jump of nearly ninety cents in less than three weeks.
The engine driving those prices is crude oil, and crude oil is in turmoil. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading above $108 a barrel on Wednesday, compared to roughly $70 just weeks ago. U.S. benchmark crude was approaching $98. The cause is not complicated: Iran has effectively shut down tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which about one-fifth of the world's oil once passed on any given day. With nowhere to ship their product, several major regional producers have cut output. The ripple effects are global.
For American drivers, the pain is immediate and personal. Amanda Acosta, filling up her car in Louisiana, put it plainly: she's getting far less gas and paying far more for it. Dan Bradley, a flatbed truck driver from Pennsylvania, is absorbing the hit twice over — once at the personal pump and once for his rig. Diesel has climbed to a national average of $5.07 a gallon, up from $3.76 before the war, its steepest level since 2022. "What are you going to do, not get gas?" Bradley said.
Not everyone is suffering. Clay Plant, who lives in Lubbock, Texas, sees the oil price surge as a lifeline for his community. As drilling activity picks up, his friends and family have work. West Texas runs on oil, and higher prices mean more of it gets pulled from the ground. The U.S. is now the world's largest crude producer and a net exporter — and that reality has shaped how President Trump has tried to frame the situation. Before the war, Trump made a point of boasting about low gas prices. Now he argues that rising oil prices benefit the country, since American producers profit when the barrel price climbs.
But the U.S. is not insulated from global price shocks the way that framing implies. Oil is traded on world markets, and the light crude that American wells produce isn't always what domestic refineries — particularly those on the East and West coasts — are built to process. The country still depends on imports of heavier crude, which means it remains exposed to whatever the global market does.
The response from Washington and international bodies has been swift, if uncertain in its reach. The International Energy Agency announced it would release 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles held by member nations, including the United States. The Trump administration has eased sanctions to allow some Venezuelan and temporarily Russian oil to flow. The White House also invoked a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a century-old maritime law, to ease shipping constraints. Analysts caution, though, that none of these moves will deliver fast relief — refineries purchase crude in advance, and new supply takes time to work its way to the corner gas station.
The broader economic concern is what happens if prices stay elevated. Francesco D'Acunto, a finance professor at Georgetown University, warns that when households are forced to spend more on necessities like fuel, they cut back elsewhere — and it's middle- and low-income families who feel that squeeze most acutely. Higher fuel costs also push up prices across the economy, from grocery transport to utility bills. D'Acunto adds that the combination of inflation and wartime uncertainty tends to make consumers hesitant about major financial decisions — buying a house, purchasing a car — which can slow the broader economy in ways that take months to fully register.
The seasonal calendar isn't helping either. Spring typically brings a modest uptick in gas prices as more drivers take to the roads and refineries switch to the more expensive summer-blend formulation. California was already averaging $5.56 a gallon on Wednesday; Kansas sat at the low end of the national range at $3.23. The spread reflects the usual mix of local taxes, proximity to supply, and refinery capacity — but every state is higher than it was three weeks ago, and the direction of travel depends almost entirely on what happens next in a war that shows no sign of a quick resolution.
Citas Notables
I would love to see the war end. I would love to see the gas prices go down because everybody might not be financially able to meet the demands of these high prices.— Thelma Williams, Army Reserve veteran, Mississippi
When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.— President Donald Trump, referring to the U.S. as the world's largest crude producer
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a war with Iran hit American gas prices so hard when the U.S. produces more oil than anyone else?
Because oil doesn't care about borders. It trades on a single global market, and when a major chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz goes dark, every barrel everywhere gets more expensive — including the ones pumped in Texas.
How significant is the Strait of Hormuz, really?
On a normal day, about one-fifth of the world's oil moves through it. When Iran effectively halted tanker traffic there, producers in the region had nowhere to send their crude, so they cut output. Less supply, same demand — prices spike.
Trump used to campaign on cheap gas. How is he handling the reversal?
He's reframed it. His argument now is that the U.S. is the world's biggest producer, so high oil prices mean American energy companies profit. It's technically true — but it doesn't pay Amanda Acosta's gas bill in Louisiana.
Who actually benefits from this?
Oil producers, drillers, energy companies. In places like Lubbock, Texas, higher prices mean more drilling activity and more jobs. The economy of a town like that runs on what comes out of the ground.
And who gets hurt most?
Middle- and low-income households, almost by definition. They spend a larger share of their income on necessities like fuel, and they have less cushion to absorb the difference.
The IEA released emergency stockpiles. Doesn't that help?
Eventually, maybe. But refineries buy crude in advance, and supply chains are slow. Four hundred million barrels sounds like a lot until you realize the world consumes roughly that much in four days.
Is there a scenario where this gets significantly worse?
Yes — if the war drags on and the Strait stays closed. Iran, Israel, and the U.S. have all struck oil and gas infrastructure. Every escalation is another variable pushing prices higher and consumer confidence lower.
What's the thing people aren't talking about enough?
The freeze effect. When people are uncertain and stretched thin, they stop making big financial decisions. Fewer home purchases, fewer car loans. That kind of hesitation compounds quietly and shows up in the economy months later.