People are ready for change. They're upset with the progress of Congress.
In the quiet arithmetic of campaign finance, a former mayor from Boca Raton has offered an early provocation to conventional political wisdom: Scott Singer, a first-time congressional candidate, outraised an incumbent Democrat nearly three to one in Florida's redrawn 25th district, drawing from nearly 3,600 contributors in a single quarter. The moment arrives as Republicans navigate the ancient paradox of midterm politics — the party that holds power tends to lose it — while wagering that economic gains in paychecks, tax cuts, and cooling inflation will rewrite that familiar story. Whether money and messaging can bend the arc of history is the question Singer's race poses, in miniature, to the entire 2026 cycle.
- A first-time candidate outraising an incumbent by nearly three to one signals that Florida's redrawn 25th district is already a pressure point in the national midterm battle.
- Republicans are racing to convert favorable economic statistics — GDP growth, lower inflation, small-business tax refunds — into a durable political narrative before voters feel otherwise.
- Democrats are pushing back hard, framing GOP policies as cost-raising burdens on working families and accusing Republicans of relying on redistricting rather than the strength of their agenda.
- The House majority hangs by one of the thinnest margins in a century, and aggressive redistricting on both sides has scrambled the competitive map, making every dollar and every district count.
- Singer's central bet — that voters who discuss policy rather than personality lean right — remains untested against the electorate, with Moskowitz not yet even confirming which district he will contest.
Scott Singer, the former mayor of Boca Raton, entered the 2026 congressional race in Florida's newly redrawn 25th district as a political newcomer — and promptly turned heads by outraising Democratic incumbent Jared Moskowitz by nearly three to one in the first quarter. With nearly 3,600 contributors and slightly more cash on hand than his opponent, Singer arrived at the spring filing deadline with momentum that surprised seasoned observers.
His campaign is built on an economic argument: that robust GDP growth, cooling inflation, and a sweeping tax cut package — including relief on tips and overtime — are quietly improving lives in ways that will matter to voters by November. The average small-business refund, he notes, came to around $7,000, passed without a single Democratic vote. Singer frames this as evidence that Republicans have become the party of the middle class.
The terrain, however, is unforgiving. Republicans hold the House by one of the narrowest margins in nearly a century, and the party controlling the White House has historically shed seats in midterms. Redistricting has further scrambled the map, and Moskowitz has yet to announce which district he will run in, leaving the exact matchup uncertain.
Democrats are contesting the economic narrative directly, arguing that Republican policies are raising costs for working families and that redistricting is a substitute for a winning agenda. They are pressing on gas prices and household squeeze as their counter-message.
Singer's confidence rests on a belief that when voters engage with policy rather than political noise, they lean right — and that media-driven panic obscures real gains. Whether a strong fundraising quarter translates into votes, and whether economic optimism can overcome midterm gravity, is the defining question his race puts to the entire cycle ahead.
Scott Singer, the former mayor of Boca Raton, is running for Congress in Florida's newly redrawn 25th district, and he arrived at the spring fundraising reports with numbers that surprised even seasoned political observers. In the first quarter of 2026, Singer—a first-time candidate—outraised his Democratic incumbent opponent, Jared Moskowitz, by nearly three to one. More striking still, Singer ended the quarter with slightly more cash on hand despite his newcomer status. The money came from nearly 3,600 contributors, a broad base of support that Singer says reflects genuine enthusiasm for his candidacy.
Singer's campaign is betting that economic conditions will carry Republicans through a midterm cycle that historically favors the party out of power. He points to what he describes as robust GDP growth, inflation that has cooled from its peaks, and a sweeping tax cut package that he says is now reaching American households and small businesses. The average refund for small businesses, Singer noted, came to around $7,000—a benefit he emphasizes was passed without a single Democratic vote in Congress. He frames the Republican Party as now the party of the middle class, having cut taxes on tips and overtime in ways he believes will resonate with working voters over the coming months.
The political terrain Singer is navigating is treacherous. Republicans hold the House by the narrowest margin in nearly a century, and Democrats have historically gained seats in midterm elections when their party controls the White House. Aggressive redistricting by both parties across the country has scrambled the map further, making it harder to predict which seats will be competitive and which are safe. Moskowitz has not yet announced which district he will run in under the new boundaries, leaving some uncertainty about the exact matchup Singer will face.
Democrats are not conceding the economic argument. A spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee fired back at Singer's optimism, arguing that Republican policies are driving up costs for working families and small businesses. They accused Republicans of gerrymandering to rig the midterms because they cannot win on the merits of their agenda. The party has been hammering Republicans on gas prices and the broader state of the economy, betting that voters feel squeezed despite the official statistics Singer cites.
Singer's confidence rests on a specific reading of voter sentiment. When you talk to people about policy rather than personality, he argues, they lean right. They support the Republican agenda. The media, in his view, peddles panic that obscures the real gains in paychecks and border security that he believes matter most to voters. Whether that optimism survives contact with the electorate—and whether a strong fundraising quarter translates into votes in November—remains the central question of his race and, in miniature, of the entire midterm cycle ahead.
Notable Quotes
We're very pleased that we had an amazing fundraising quarter, one of the best of any Republican challenger in the nation. People are really enthused about our candidacy.— Scott Singer
Florida Republicans knew they couldn't win on their cost-raising, billionaire-first agenda, which is why they're desperate to gerrymander the maps and rig the midterms.— Nebeyatt Betre, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a first-time candidate outraising an incumbent matter so much in a race like this?
It signals momentum and donor confidence. Moskowitz is an established figure, so if Singer is pulling in three times as much money, it suggests people believe there's a real opening—either because they think the district has shifted, or because they think Singer can win it.
Singer keeps talking about the economy. Is that actually what voters care about most right now?
It's what Republicans are betting on. But the DCCC's response hints at a real divide—they're saying voters feel squeezed despite the headline numbers. Both sides are looking at the same economy and seeing different things.
What does redistricting have to do with any of this?
It's the wildcard. If the new 25th district is more Republican-leaning than the old one, Singer's fundraising advantage becomes even more decisive. But neither side knows exactly where Moskowitz will run yet, so there's still a lot of uncertainty baked in.
Singer mentions the tax cut a lot. Is that a winning message?
He thinks so, especially the $7,000 average refund for small businesses. But Democrats counter that those cuts benefit billionaires more than working families. It's the same policy, two completely different stories about who it helps.
What's the real test here?
Whether economic messaging can overcome the historical pattern that the party in power loses seats in midterms. Singer's optimism is real, but it's also a bet that 2026 will be different from most midterm cycles.