Trump's margin fell from 22 points to 10 points in eight years
In the shadow of the Rockies, a former Army captain named Jessica Killin has won the right to challenge a sitting Republican congressman in a district long considered beyond Democratic reach. Colorado's 5th, anchored by Colorado Springs and its constellation of military installations, is a place where the old certainties of partisan geography are quietly giving way — Trump's margin there has halved in eight years, and national Democrats have taken notice. The November contest between Killin and incumbent Jeff Crank will ask whether the suburban and military communities reshaping American politics have finally arrived at the foot of Pikes Peak.
- A district that once seemed safely Republican is now competitive enough that both national parties are spending real money and attention on it.
- Killin's primary victory over fellow veteran Joe Reagan was shaped by a deliberate centrist positioning — she explicitly distanced herself from Democratic Socialists, signaling that winning here requires a different kind of Democrat.
- Crank, running unopposed in his primary, brings deep local roots in business, media, and Colorado Springs establishment politics — advantages that won't dissolve simply because the margins are tightening.
- The erosion of Republican margins — from 22 points to 10 in El Paso County over eight years — is the number driving Democratic optimism, but a 10-point gap is still a gap.
- Fort Carson, the Air Force Academy, and fast-growing suburbs create a volatile political mix where military culture and shifting demographics pull in competing directions.
- November will serve as a referendum on whether the suburban realignment that has redrawn American political maps can reach even the most traditionally conservative military communities.
Jessica Killin won Colorado's 5th Congressional District Democratic primary Tuesday, defeating fellow Army veteran Joe Reagan and setting up a November general election against Republican incumbent Jeff Crank. The race has drawn national attention because the district — centered on Colorado Springs, Fort Carson, and the Air Force Academy — has long been reliable Republican territory that is showing unmistakable signs of change. Trump's margin in El Paso County fell from 22 points in 2016 to 10 points in 2024, a shift significant enough that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Killin to its Red to Blue program.
Killin came into the primary with national backing and strong fundraising that Reagan, who leaned on local roots and his nonprofit work with veterans, could not match. Her campaign took a deliberate centrist turn in the final stretch — she signed onto an initiative whose members called themselves "capitalist, not socialist" and said candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America should not represent the party. In a district where military service and fiscal conservatism run deep, that positioning may have mattered.
Crank, who ran unopposed, brings a conventional Republican resume: years as a Capitol Hill staffer, leadership roles at the Colorado Springs Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Prosperity, and a presence in local media. He is not a vulnerable incumbent by traditional measures — but he is now in a race that a Democrat with national support would not have contested a decade ago.
What November will test is not simply whether Killin can win, but whether the political ground has shifted enough in military-heavy, suburban communities like Colorado Springs to make a Democratic pickup genuinely possible. The answer will say something larger about where American politics is heading.
Jessica Killin won Colorado's 5th Congressional District Democratic primary on Tuesday, clearing the way for a November showdown against Republican incumbent Jeff Crank in a race that has drawn national attention from both parties. Killin, a former Army captain who served as chief of staff to second gentleman Doug Emhoff, defeated Joe Reagan, a fellow Army veteran and nonprofit leader who had run for the seat two years earlier. The victory sets up a contest in a district centered on Colorado Springs and El Paso County—terrain that has long favored Republicans but has begun to shift in ways that caught the eye of national Democrats.
The district is no ordinary Republican stronghold. It encompasses Fort Carson, the Air Force Academy, and fast-growing suburbs around Colorado Springs, making it a place where military culture and suburban politics intersect. Yet the numbers tell a story of erosion. Trump's margin in El Paso County, which largely overlaps with the 5th District, fell from 22 points in 2016 to 10 points in 2024. House-level Republican margins have narrowed over the past decade as well. That narrowing is why the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Killin to its Red to Blue program—a signal that national party strategists see the seat as genuinely competitive, even if the district still leans Republican.
Killin entered the primary as a first-time candidate with advantages Reagan could not match: national backing and strong fundraising. Reagan leaned instead on local roots, his combat record, and his work through a nonprofit helping veterans start businesses. The contrast between the two reflected a broader tension within the Democratic Party about its direction. Shortly before the primary, Killin signed onto a centrist initiative whose members described themselves as "capitalist, not socialist" and emphasized public safety, fiscal responsibility, secure borders, and national pride. She also said during an online news conference that candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America "should not be the face of our party." That positioning may have resonated with primary voters in a district where military service carries weight and fiscal conservatism has deep roots.
Crank, the Republican incumbent, ran unopposed in his primary and is seeking a second term. His background is rooted in Colorado Springs establishment politics. He spent seven years as a Capitol Hill staffer before returning home, where he served as vice president for the Colorado Springs Chamber of Commerce, chief operating officer at Americans for Prosperity, and president of his own real estate investment company. He has also worked in broadcasting, hosting both The Jeff Crank Show in Colorado and the American Potential Podcast. His profile is that of a local figure with ties to business, nonprofit work, and media—a conventional Republican resume for a district that has sent Republicans to Congress for years.
What makes November significant is not that Killin is certain to win, but that the race is being fought at all. A decade ago, a Democrat with national backing might not have bothered. The shift in El Paso County's voting patterns, the narrowing of House margins, and the growth of Colorado Springs suburbs suggest that the political ground has moved. Whether that movement is enough to flip a seat in a district that still leans Republican will be tested in the general election. The race will tell us something about whether Democrats can make real gains in military-heavy communities and whether the suburban shift that has reshaped American politics in recent years extends into places like Colorado Springs.
Citas Notables
Candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America should not be the face of our party— Jessica Killin, during an online news conference
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did national Democrats decide this race was worth fighting for? It's still a Republican district.
The margins tell the story. Trump won El Paso County by 22 points in 2016. By 2024, that was down to 10 points. That's not a fluke—it's a pattern. When a Republican advantage cuts in half in eight years, strategists notice.
So it's really about Colorado Springs changing, not about Killin herself?
Partly, yes. But Killin's profile matters too. She's a veteran, she worked at the highest levels of government, and she's positioning herself as a centrist. That's a different kind of Democrat than what Colorado Springs has seen run here before.
What about Crank? He seems well-rooted in the community.
He is. Seven years on Capitol Hill, then back to Colorado Springs where he's been in business, nonprofits, even media. He's the kind of local figure who typically wins in a place like this. The question is whether local roots are enough when the electorate itself is changing.
The primary showed Killin beat Reagan, another veteran. Why did she win?
Money and national support, mainly. Reagan had local credibility and had run before, but Killin came in with resources and backing from the national party. In a primary, that matters.
Does Killin's centrist positioning help her in the general, or does it risk alienating her own base?
That's the tension she's navigating. She's staking out ground that appeals to moderate voters in a military-heavy district, but she's also saying the party shouldn't be defined by its left wing. It's a bet that there are enough voters in the middle who want that message.