The EU's commitment to the western Balkans is real, and so is the opportunity.
On the Montenegrin coast, more than thirty European leaders have gathered not merely to negotiate borders and timelines, but to answer a deeper question about whether a union built on shared values can still honor its promises when geopolitical fear has rewritten the rules. The Western Balkans — six nations suspended for decades in the anteroom of Europe — are being told the door remains open, even as the EU's internal arguments over Ukraine's unprecedented fast-track candidacy cast long shadows over what membership now means and who it is truly for. It is a summit shaped less by optimism than by the anxiety of a bloc that knows abandonment has consequences, and that Russia and China are patient.
- Ukraine's four-month candidacy sprint has shattered the old enlargement logic, leaving six Balkan nations wondering whether speed is reserved only for crises that frighten the powerful.
- Germany's associate membership proposal for Ukraine has fractured EU unity — Kyiv calls it a trap, and diplomats warn it could quietly bury the political will for full accession across the board.
- Serbia's drift toward Moscow and Albania's organized crime record are live fault lines, while Montenegro races toward a 2028 entry date that is forcing the EU to confront the Orbán problem before the ink is dry.
- Rather than grand treaty announcements, the summit is pivoting to the unglamorous machinery of integration — roaming charges, payment systems, technical drafting groups — the slow work that makes union feel real before it is formal.
- The first meeting of a group drafting Montenegro's accession treaty has quietly started a clock, and EU officials are speaking with the careful defensiveness of an institution that knows it must prove it has not forgotten the Balkans.
More than thirty European leaders gathered Friday in the Montenegrin coastal town of Tivat for a summit framed as a reassurance mission — a signal to the six Western Balkan nations that their path to EU membership remains genuine, even as the bloc strains under the weight of its own internal contradictions. Macron, Merz, Meloni, and von der Leyen were among those attending. European Council president António Costa had set the tone days earlier in Sarajevo, calling enlargement a geostrategic necessity at a moment when Russia and China are actively competing for influence across the region.
The urgency is sharpest in Montenegro, which aims to become the EU's twenty-eighth member by 2028 and is already prompting discussions about stripping newly joined states of veto power for several years — a direct response to the damage done by Hungary's repeated obstruction of EU decisions. Albania is seen as the next plausible candidate, though skepticism over its organized crime record persists. Serbia, under Vučić, has drifted toward Russia and away from EU alignment. North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina remain entangled in political conflicts with no clear resolution in sight.
What has fundamentally shifted, analysts say, is that the Balkans are no longer peripheral to European strategy. Ukraine's war rewrote the calculus entirely. But the speed of Ukraine's candidacy has created its own crisis: Germany's proposal for associate membership — representation in EU institutions without voting rights — is seen by Kyiv and many diplomats as a gilded substitute for actual accession, one that could make full membership politically impossible and drain the will to solve the hard problems.
Those divisions will shape the Balkans' fate. If the EU cannot agree on how to integrate a country at war, the path for six smaller, poorer nations with their own governance challenges grows narrower. Friday's summit was not expected to produce dramatic timeline announcements. Instead, the focus fell on practical integration: newly approved talks on eliminating mobile roaming charges across the Balkans, expanded participation in the single euro payments area, and the first technical meeting of a group drafting Montenegro's accession treaty. Unglamorous work — but the kind that makes borders feel less like barriers before the formal treaties are ever signed.
More than thirty European leaders are converging on the Montenegrin coastal town of Tivat on Friday to make a case that feels increasingly urgent: the six countries of the western Balkans have a genuine path to European Union membership, even as the bloc tears itself apart over how to manage that very expansion.
Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, Giorgia Meloni, and Ursula von der Leyen will be among those attending. The summit is framed as a reassurance mission, a moment to demonstrate that while Ukraine has been fast-tracked to candidacy in four months—a geopolitical shock that upended decades of EU enlargement logic—the Balkans have not been forgotten or sidelined. António Costa, the European Council president, put it plainly earlier this week in Sarajevo: the EU's commitment to the western Balkans is real, and so is the opportunity for them to join. He called enlargement a geostrategic necessity, an investment in European peace and stability at a moment when Russia and China are actively competing for influence across the region.
The stakes are clearest in Montenegro, which aims to become the EU's twenty-eighth member state by 2028. It is the furthest along in its membership bid, which has prompted existing EU members to begin discussing safeguards for new entrants—specifically, stripping newly joined states of veto power for several years to prevent a repeat of the Viktor Orbán problem, the Hungarian leader who repeatedly blocked EU decisions while tilting toward Russia. Albania is seen as the next likely candidate, though several EU governments remain skeptical about its record on organized crime. The other four countries—North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia—face murkier prospects. Serbia, under President Alexander Vučić, has drifted noticeably away from EU alignment, refusing to sanction Russia and cracking down on domestic dissent. The others are hamstrung by internal and external political conflicts that show no sign of resolution.
What has changed, according to Faruk Bašić, a researcher at the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, is that the region is no longer peripheral to European strategy. Ukraine's war rewrote the entire calculus. The old enlargement logic—align with EU values, eventually join—has given way to something rawer and more urgent: geopolitical necessity. Ukraine's candidacy proved that the EU could move at speed when it felt threatened. But that speed has created a problem. Germany has proposed that Ukraine be granted associate membership, a status that would give it representation in EU institutions without voting rights, as a stepping stone to full membership. Berlin frames this as generous and accelerating. Kyiv sees it as a trap. Some EU diplomats are blunter: they call it a substitute for actual membership, something that would make full accession almost impossible and kill the political will to solve the underlying problems.
These divisions over Ukraine are not abstract. They will shape what happens to the Balkans. If the EU cannot agree on how to integrate a country at war with a massive postwar recovery bill, how will it manage six smaller, poorer nations with their own governance challenges? The summit on Friday is unlikely to produce dramatic announcements on membership timelines. Instead, officials are signaling that the focus will be on tangible improvements to daily life—the kind of thing that might actually matter to voters in the region.
One concrete example: the EU has just approved talks on eliminating mobile roaming charges in the western Balkans, extending a policy that has become a quiet EU success story. Citizens traveling within the bloc can already call, text, and use data without extra charges. That benefit would now extend to the six Balkan countries, pending their adoption of relevant EU law. It is unglamorous work—no speeches, no grand ceremonies—but it is the machinery of integration, the slow grinding of harmonization that eventually makes borders feel less like barriers. Several Balkan countries have already joined the single euro payments area, which standardizes electronic transactions. These are the building blocks of membership, the practical steps that make union feel real before the formal treaties are signed.
One EU official pushed back against the idea that progress has stalled, pointing to the first meeting last month of a technical group drafting Montenegro's accession treaty. "This is actually something extremely real," the official said, "which starts a clock ticking for the next accession of the European Union." The language is careful, almost defensive—a sign that the EU feels pressure to prove it has not abandoned the Balkans in its scramble to manage Ukraine. What happens in Tivat this week will signal whether that pressure translates into action, or whether the bloc's internal divisions have become too deep to bridge.
Citações Notáveis
The commitment of the European Union to the western Balkans is real. As real as the opportunity for enlargement.— António Costa, European Council president
The war in Ukraine has singlehandedly reframed what European enlargement is meant to be and what it is for.— Faruk Bašić, Brussels Institute for Geopolitics
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does the EU care so much about the Balkans right now? They're not at war.
They're not at war, but they're in Russia's backyard, and Russia is actively trying to pull them away. If the EU doesn't offer a credible path to membership, those countries drift toward Moscow or Beijing. It's about containment, not charity.
But the EU is already torn apart over Ukraine. How can it manage six more countries?
That's the real question. The Balkans are watching how the EU handles Ukraine. If the bloc can't agree on Ukraine's future, why would Montenegro believe its 2028 deadline is real?
What's the actual difference between Montenegro and, say, Serbia?
Montenegro is trying. It's drafting its accession treaty, aligning with EU law. Serbia under Vučić has essentially given up on the EU and is cozying up to Russia instead. One is moving toward Europe; the other is moving away.
This roaming charges thing—is that actually important?
It sounds trivial, but it's the opposite. It's the machinery of integration. When a teenager in Tirana can text a friend in Budapest without getting slammed with charges, the EU stops feeling like an abstract bureaucracy and starts feeling like something that improves their life. That matters more than any speech.
So what's Germany really doing with this associate membership proposal for Ukraine?
Berlin says it's accelerating Ukraine's path to the EU. Everyone else reads it as a way to give Ukraine a seat at the table without actually letting it join. It's a way to manage the problem without solving it—and the Balkans are watching to see if that's what the EU does to them too.