The race was settling into something closer and more volatile
En el año del bicentenario peruano, dos visiones del país se miden en las encuestas con creciente tensión: Pedro Castillo, maestro rural y candidato de izquierda, mantiene una ventaja de seis puntos sobre Keiko Fujimori, aunque esa distancia se ha reducido notablemente tras el debate de Chota. El Instituto de Estudios Peruanos registró este movimiento el 9 de mayo, revelando que los electores siguen abiertos a la persuasión cuando falta menos de un mes para la segunda vuelta. La historia que cuentan los números no es solo de porcentajes, sino de un electorado que todavía delibera sobre el rumbo de su nación.
- La ventaja de Castillo se redujo de veinte puntos a seis en apenas dos semanas, señal de que el debate televisado en Chota sacudió el tablero electoral.
- Fujimori, que llegaba muy rezagada, encontró en el enfrentamiento público una plataforma para reposicionarse ante millones de votantes indecisos.
- Con un margen de error de 2.8 puntos y solo semanas para el cierre de campaña, cualquier tropiezo o acierto puede inclinar la balanza.
- Ambos equipos de campaña reconocen que la recta final será decisiva: el resultado ya no parece predecible ni inevitable.
- El país se prepara para elegir presidente en su año bicentenario, con el electorado dividido entre transformación radical y continuidad dinástica.
El 9 de mayo, el Instituto de Estudios Peruanos publicó una encuesta que mostró a Pedro Castillo con 36.2 por ciento de intención de voto frente al 30 por ciento de Keiko Fujimori, días después de que ambos candidatos se enfrentaran en un debate celebrado en Chota. La fotografía estadística revelaba algo más que números: una carrera que se estaba cerrando.
Las cifras de abril contaban una historia diferente. Antes del debate, Castillo aventajaba a Fujimori por veinte puntos —41.5 frente a 21.5 por ciento—. El encuentro televisado comprimió esa brecha en más de cinco puntos, sugiriendo que la confrontación directa había movido a una porción del electorado hacia la candidata de Fuerza Popular. La ventaja de Castillo seguía siendo real, pero su trayectoria había dejado de ascender.
El sondeo consultó a 1,218 personas distribuidas en 24 departamentos, 146 provincias y 421 distritos, con trabajo de campo entre el 3 y el 9 de mayo, financiado por Grupo La República y registrado ante la autoridad electoral peruana. Su margen de error de 2.8 puntos y nivel de confianza del 95 por ciento subrayaban que la competencia era genuinamente incierta.
Detrás de los porcentajes latía una pregunta más profunda: en el año del bicentenario, Perú debía elegir entre un maestro rural que prometía transformación económica radical y una representante de la dinastía Fujimori. El electorado, según mostraban los datos, aún no había decidido. Cada aparición pública, cada declaración, cada gesto de los candidatos en las semanas siguientes tendría peso real sobre el desenlace.
Peru's presidential race tightened noticeably in the week after the candidates took the stage. On May 9th, the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos released fresh polling data showing Pedro Castillo, the left-wing candidate from Perú Libre, holding 36.2 percent support against Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular, who stood at 30 percent. The survey arrived just days after the two had debated in Chota, a moment that appeared to shift the contours of the contest heading into June's runoff election.
The numbers themselves told a story of momentum reversing. Two weeks earlier, on April 25th—before the debate—Castillo had commanded a much wider margin: 41.5 percent to Fujimori's 21.5 percent. The intervening days had compressed that lead by more than five percentage points, suggesting the televised confrontation had moved voters, or at least moved some of them, in Fujimori's direction. With less than a month remaining until the second round of voting, the race was settling into something closer and more volatile than the early spring numbers had suggested.
The IEP poll drew from 1,218 respondents distributed across 24 departments, 146 provinces, and 421 districts, reaching both urban and rural voters aged 18 and older. The survey employed telephone interviews using a randomized sampling method, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points and a 95 percent confidence level. Fieldwork ran from May 3rd through May 9th. The study was financed by Grupo La República and carried the official registration number assigned by Peru's electoral authority.
What the narrowing suggested was that the debate had given Fujimori an opening. Her campaign had been trailing significantly in the weeks before, and the public confrontation provided a platform to reach voters directly and reshape perceptions. Castillo, meanwhile, still held the lead—a six-point advantage was not trivial—but the trajectory was no longer climbing. Both campaigns understood they were entering the final sprint with the outcome genuinely uncertain.
The polling snapshot captured Peru at a hinge moment. The country was preparing to elect its president in the bicentennial year of independence, and the choice between a rural schoolteacher promising radical economic transformation and a member of the Fujimori political dynasty represented a fundamental question about the nation's direction. The numbers showed the electorate was still deciding, still listening, still open to persuasion. In the weeks ahead, every appearance, every statement, every moment of connection or misstep would matter.
Notable Quotes
The survey was conducted by the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos and financed by Grupo La República— IEP poll methodology
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
The gap shrank by five points in two weeks. What happened in that debate that moved people?
The debate gave Fujimori a chance to speak directly to voters who hadn't heard much from her before. Castillo had been dominant in the early race, but a live confrontation changes things—people see the candidates side by side, unfiltered.
So Castillo lost ground just by showing up?
Not exactly. He still led by six points after the debate. But the trajectory mattered. He'd been climbing, and suddenly he wasn't. That's what campaigns feel in their bones—the momentum shift.
With a 2.8 percent margin of error, how real is that five-point drop?
Real enough to matter. It's outside the margin, so it's not statistical noise. But it also means the race was tightening in ways that made the final month genuinely unpredictable.
Who was moving? Was it Castillo voters going to Fujimori, or undecideds breaking her way?
The poll doesn't tell us that. It just shows the net result. But in a race that tight, every shift matters—whether it's conversion or consolidation of support.
What did this mean for the campaigns going forward?
It meant Castillo couldn't assume he'd won. And it meant Fujimori had found her footing. Both candidates knew they had weeks to fight for every vote.