Nearly a third of voters remain undecided or plan to reject both candidates
With less than a month before Peru's June 6 presidential runoff, a nation finds itself suspended between two sharply different visions of its future. A new IEP survey places rural schoolteacher Pedro Castillo at 36.5 percent against Keiko Fujimori's 29.6 percent — a meaningful but not decisive margin. What gives the moment its true weight is not the gap between the two candidates, but the vast middle ground of protest votes and undecided citizens who have yet to declare which Peru they want.
- Castillo holds a 6.9-point lead, but with a 2.8-point margin of error, the race remains genuinely open heading into the final stretch.
- Nearly a quarter of Peruvian voters plan to cast blank or null ballots — a collective refusal that functions as its own political statement.
- Another 7.8 percent remain undecided, meaning roughly one-third of the electorate could still reshape the outcome in either direction.
- Fujimori has shed a fraction of a point since the previous IEP poll, while Castillo has barely moved — the race is settling, not surging.
- Both campaigns must now compete not just against each other, but against widespread disillusionment that could suppress or redirect the final vote.
With the June 6 runoff less than a month away, the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos has released a new survey showing Pedro Castillo, the Peru Libre candidate, drawing 36.5 percent support against Keiko Fujimori's 29.6 percent — a gap of 6.9 points. The poll, conducted May 13–15 across 1,246 respondents spanning Peru's 24 departments, carries a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
Compared to IEP's previous survey, the numbers have barely shifted. Castillo moved from 36.2 to 36.5 percent; Fujimori slipped slightly from 30 percent. The race appears to be stabilizing rather than breaking open in either direction.
What complicates any confident forecast is the weight of the undecided and disengaged. Nearly 23.6 percent of respondents plan to cast blank or null votes — a protest tradition with real electoral consequence in Peru — while another 7.8 percent remain genuinely uncommitted. Together, these voters represent roughly a third of the electorate, a bloc large enough to determine the final result in a race separated by less than seven points.
Castillo, a rural schoolteacher and first-time national candidate, topped the first round of voting, while Fujimori — daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori and a veteran of two previous presidential campaigns — represents the established right. The distance between them in the polls reflects a country divided not merely by preference, but by competing ideas of what Peru should become. How the undecided and the disillusioned ultimately choose — or refuse to choose — will be the election's defining question.
With less than a month until Peru's presidential runoff, Pedro Castillo holds a commanding but not insurmountable lead over his rival Keiko Fujimori, according to the latest polling from the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos. The survey, conducted between May 13 and 15, shows Castillo, the Peru Libre candidate, drawing support from 36.5 percent of voters, while Fujimori, representing Fuerza Popular, trails at 29.6 percent—a gap of 6.9 percentage points.
The numbers suggest momentum, though not dramatic movement. In a similar IEP poll released just a week earlier, Castillo had registered 36.2 percent support while Fujimori stood at 30 percent. The latest figures show Castillo essentially flat, with Fujimori losing a fraction of a point. The race, in other words, appears to be settling rather than shifting decisively in either direction as the June 6 election approaches.
What complicates any simple reading of these numbers is the substantial bloc of voters still undecided or rejecting both candidates outright. Nearly a quarter of respondents—23.6 percent—indicated they plan to cast blank or null votes, a protest vote that carries real weight in Peruvian elections. Another 7.8 percent remain genuinely undecided, meaning roughly one-third of the electorate has not committed to either frontrunner. In a race decided by less than seven points, these voters represent genuine uncertainty about the final outcome.
The IEP survey reached 1,246 respondents distributed across Peru's 24 departments, 146 provinces, and 421 districts, achieving a provincial representativeness level of 95 percent. The margin of error sits at 2.8 percentage points above and below each national-level result, meaning Castillo's lead, while real, falls within a range where movement remains possible.
The runoff itself is a consequence of Peru's electoral system. Neither candidate secured the 50 percent threshold required to win outright in the first round of voting, forcing this second contest between the top two finishers. Castillo, a rural schoolteacher and political newcomer, emerged from that first round as the leading vote-getter. Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori and a two-time presidential candidate, represents the establishment right. The gap between them in this poll reflects a country divided not just between two candidates but between fundamentally different visions of Peru's future. What happens with those blank votes and undecided voters in the final weeks will likely determine whether Castillo's current advantage holds or whether Fujimori can close the distance.
Notable Quotes
Castillo holds 36.5% support while Fujimori trails at 29.6%— Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (IEP) poll
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
What strikes you most about these numbers—is Castillo's lead as solid as it looks?
The lead is real, but it's not as commanding as the headline might suggest. Six points is meaningful, but it's not insurmountable, especially when you account for the margin of error and the fact that nearly a quarter of voters are planning to reject both candidates entirely.
Why would so many people vote blank or null? That seems like a significant protest.
In Peru, that's often how voters express disgust with both options or distrust in the political system itself. It's not apathy—it's a deliberate choice. And in a close race, those votes matter enormously because they're votes that neither candidate can claim.
So the real story isn't Castillo versus Fujimori—it's what happens with the undecided and the protest voters?
Exactly. Castillo's at 36.5, Fujimori's at 29.6, but together they account for only about two-thirds of the electorate. The remaining third is genuinely up for grabs or actively rejecting the choice.
Has Castillo's support been growing, or is he stuck?
He's essentially flat. A week earlier he was at 36.2 percent. So he's not gaining momentum—he's holding. That could be a sign the race is stabilizing, or it could mean he's hit a ceiling.
And Fujimori—is she gaining ground?
Marginally. She dropped from 30 to 29.6, so no, she's not gaining. But the fact that the gap hasn't widened suggests the race might be tightening as voters focus more intently on the choice ahead.