He's growing quite a bit, and rapidly. His message is resonating.
A semana del primer turno presidencial en Colombia, una encuesta revela que la política de lo inesperado sigue su curso: mientras Gustavo Petro mantiene el liderazgo, Rodolfo Hernández —un independiente que habla el lenguaje del desencanto— ha escalado hasta empatar técnicamente con el candidato del establecimiento, Fico Gutiérrez. En un país donde la desconfianza en la política tradicional es tan profunda como persistente, el ascenso de Hernández no es una anomalía, sino un síntoma de una ciudadanía que busca, con urgencia, algo distinto.
- Con apenas una semana para el 29 de mayo, la carrera presidencial colombiana se ha vuelto genuinamente impredecible: Hernández escala a 19.1% y amenaza el segundo lugar de Gutiérrez (20.8%) dentro del margen de error.
- El mensaje antiestablecimiento de Hernández está resonando con fuerza en un electorado hastiado de la política convencional, según el propio director de la encuestadora CNC.
- Petro lidera con 35.8%, pero su ventaja no garantiza nada: casi el 16% del electorado sigue indeciso o dispuesto a votar en blanco, una masa crítica que podría redefinir el resultado.
- La encuesta CNC, realizada entre el 13 y el 19 de mayo en 104 municipios con 4.412 personas, captura un país en movimiento donde las certezas electorales se han disuelto en días.
A poco más de una semana de las elecciones presidenciales en Colombia, una nueva encuesta de CNC —encargada por la revista Semana— ha agitado la carrera de manera inesperada. Gustavo Petro, el candidato de izquierda del Pacto Histórico, sigue al frente con 35.8 por ciento. Pero detrás de él, el panorama se ha vuelto turbio: Fico Gutiérrez, respaldado por el establecimiento, marca 20.8 por ciento, mientras que Rodolfo Hernández, exalcalde de Bucaramanga y candidato independiente, ha trepado hasta 19.1 por ciento, configurando un empate técnico por el segundo lugar.
El ascenso de Hernández es lo más llamativo del sondeo. Carlos Lemoine, director de CNC, señaló que el candidato independiente está creciendo de forma acelerada y que su mensaje conecta con votantes que no se sienten representados por la política tradicional. Hernández no es la izquierda de Petro ni la continuidad que encarna Gutiérrez: es la opción del desencanto, y en Colombia esa posición tiene un peso electoral real.
El resto del campo es marginal: Sergio Fajardo alcanza apenas el 4 por ciento, y los demás candidatos se ubican por debajo del 2. Pero el dato más revelador puede ser otro: el 5.7 por ciento declara que votará en blanco, y casi el 10 por ciento no sabe o no responde. Juntos, cerca del 16 por ciento del electorado permanece sin definir. En una carrera tan ajustada, ese bloque podría decidirlo todo en los días que restan antes del primer turno.
With just over a week until Colombia's presidential election, a new poll has scrambled the race in an unexpected way. Gustavo Petro, the leftist frontrunner from the Historic Pact coalition, still commands the lead at 35.8 percent. But behind him, the picture has grown murkier. Fico Gutiérrez, the establishment-backed candidate, holds 20.8 percent—but Rodolfo Hernández, an independent and former mayor of Bucaramanga, has surged to 19.1 percent, creating what pollsters call a technical tie for second place.
The CNC survey, commissioned by the magazine Semana and conducted between May 13 and 19, interviewed 4,412 people across 104 municipalities nationwide. The margin of error sits at 1.5 percent, meaning the gap between Gutiérrez and Hernández is within the range of statistical noise. What matters is the trajectory. Hernández's climb has been steep and accelerating. Carlos Lemoine, the CNC's manager, noted that the independent candidate's message appears to be landing with voters in a way that traditional politics has not. "He's growing quite a bit, and rapidly," Lemoine said. "It shows his message is resonating, that people are connecting with what he's saying."
Hernández represents something different in this race—neither the left-wing alternative that Petro embodies nor the continuity that Gutiérrez promises. He is the anti-establishment choice, and in a country where many voters feel alienated from conventional politics, that positioning has proven potent. The poll captures a moment of genuine fluidity in the race, one week before the first round of voting on May 29.
The remaining candidates occupy much smaller terrain. Sergio Fajardo, another moderate voice, registers at 4 percent. Jhon Milton Rodríguez sits at 1 percent. Ingrid Betancourt and Enrique Gómez trail further behind. But perhaps the most telling number is the one that measures uncertainty: 5.7 percent say they will cast a blank ballot, and 9.9 percent either don't know or won't say how they'll vote. Combined, nearly 16 percent of the electorate remains genuinely undecided or actively rejecting all options. In a race this tight, that pool of voters could determine everything.
The survey methodology was straightforward. Of the 4,412 respondents, 3,780 were interviewed in person (86 percent), with the remainder reached by phone. The data reflects a country in motion, where the old certainties no longer hold and where a candidate who was barely on the radar months ago now stands on the threshold of a runoff.
Citas Notables
He's growing quite a bit, and rapidly. It shows his message is resonating, that people are connecting with what he's saying.— Carlos Lemoine, CNC manager
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Hernández's surge matter if Petro still leads by fifteen points?
Because the race isn't decided in the first round. If no candidate clears fifty percent, the top two go to a runoff. Hernández being this close to second place means he could be in that final matchup—and he's the one with momentum.
What's driving his growth? What's his actual message?
The poll doesn't detail his platform, but Lemoine's comment is revealing: voters are "connecting" with him. In a country tired of traditional politics, Hernández offers something outside that system. He's the alternative to both the left and the establishment right.
So the undecided voters—that 16 percent—they're the real story?
Absolutely. In a technical tie between Gutiérrez and Hernández, those voters could push either one into the runoff. And they're not just undecided; some are actively rejecting all options by voting blank.
Does the poll tell us anything about regional strength? Urban versus rural?
The survey covered 104 municipalities, so there's geographic spread, but the report doesn't break down those details. That's a limitation of what we know from this snapshot.
What happens if Hernández makes the runoff against Petro?
That's the open question. Petro's lead is solid but not overwhelming. A runoff against an anti-establishment independent could reshape the dynamics entirely.