The race for second place was not yet decided
Con nueve días de distancia de las urnas, Colombia se encontraba ante una elección presidencial cuyo desenlace permanecía abierto pese a las apariencias. Gustavo Petro encabezaba las encuestas con casi el 38 por ciento, pero los escenarios de segunda vuelta revelaban una democracia en tensión genuina: cualquier resultado era posible dentro del margen de error. El ascenso silencioso de Rodolfo Hernández recordaba que en política, el impulso puede ser tan decisivo como la intención.
- Petro lidera con comodidad en primera vuelta, pero su ventaja se evapora en los duelos hipotéticos de segunda vuelta, donde los márgenes caen dentro del error estadístico.
- Hernández irrumpe con una ganancia de siete puntos en pocas semanas, convirtiendo la disputa por el segundo lugar en una carrera abierta que nadie puede dar por resuelta.
- Fajardo se desploma por debajo del cinco por ciento, y los candidatos menores apenas registran presencia, lo que concentra la tensión en tres figuras y deja poco espacio para sorpresas desde los márgenes.
- La pregunta que domina el ambiente político no es si habrá segunda vuelta, sino quién acompañará a Petro en ella y hacia dónde migrarán los votos de quien quede eliminado.
Nueve días antes de las elecciones del 29 de mayo, una encuesta de Guarumo EcoAnalítica dibujaba una carrera que parecía decidida en la cima pero que hervía por debajo. Gustavo Petro, candidato del Pacto Histórico, lideraba con casi el 38 por ciento, seguido por Fico Gutiérrez, exalcalde de Medellín, con algo más del 30. La distancia entre ambos sugería que Petro avanzaría a la segunda vuelta, pero los números escondían una historia más compleja.
El verdadero protagonista del momento era Rodolfo Hernández, exalcalde de Bucaramanga, que había escalado más de siete puntos desde finales de abril para instalarse en el 20 por ciento. Ese ascenso ponía en duda quién sería el rival de Petro en junio y convertía a Hernández en una figura capaz de reconfigurar el tablero. Mientras tanto, Sergio Fajardo caía por debajo del cinco por ciento, y los demás candidatos apenas dejaban huella en los sondeos.
Los escenarios de segunda vuelta complicaban aún más el panorama. Frente a Gutiérrez, Petro obtendría el 45,7 por ciento contra el 42; frente a Hernández, el 45,2 contra el 41,5. En ambos casos, la diferencia quedaba dentro del margen de error de 2,5 puntos, lo que convertía cualquier proyección en una apuesta. El impulso de Hernández, la capacidad de Gutiérrez para consolidar su base y la disposición de los votantes de Petro a movilizarse de nuevo en junio eran variables que ninguna encuesta podía resolver. La elección seguía escribiéndose.
Nine days before Colombia would head to the polls, a new survey painted a picture of a race that looked settled at the top but volatile everywhere else. Gustavo Petro, the leftist candidate from the Historic Pact, held a commanding lead with nearly 38 percent of voters saying they would support him in the first round scheduled for May 29. His nearest competitor, Fico Gutiérrez, the former mayor of Medellín, trailed at just over 30 percent. The gap between them suggested Petro would advance to a runoff, but the numbers also hinted at something more interesting happening below the surface.
The Guarumo EcoAnalítica poll, released on a Friday morning and reported by El Tiempo, captured a moment of genuine uncertainty about who would join Petro in the second round. Rodolfo Hernández, a former mayor of Bucaramanga and current senator, had been climbing steadily. In the span of just a few weeks—since late April—he had gained more than seven percentage points, now sitting at just over 20 percent. That surge mattered. It meant the race for second place was not yet decided, and it meant Hernández could potentially reshape the entire contest depending on where his voters went in a runoff.
Sergio Fajardo, representing the centrist Coalition of Hope, had fallen to just above 4 percent, losing more than two points since the previous measurement. The remaining candidates—Ingrid Betancourt, John Milton Rodríguez, and Enrique Gómez—barely registered, each below one percent. Blank votes accounted for 2.4 percent, while undecided voters made up another 2.2 percent.
But the first round was only half the story. The poll also tested hypothetical runoff scenarios, and here the picture became murkier. If Petro faced Gutiérrez on June 19, Petro would take 45.7 percent to Gutiérrez's 42 percent. That looked like a win, but the margin of error was 2.5 percentage points—meaning the race was, technically, a tie. The same held true if Petro ran against Hernández: Petro at 45.2 percent, Hernández at 41.5 percent. Again, within the margin of error. Again, genuinely uncertain.
What the numbers suggested was a first round that would likely produce Petro and either Gutiérrez or Hernández as finalists, with the second round remaining wide open. Petro's lead in the first round was real, but it did not guarantee victory in a head-to-head matchup. The question of momentum—whether Hernández's surge would continue, whether Gutiérrez could stabilize his support, whether Petro's voters would show up in equal numbers in June—remained unanswered. The election was still being written.
Citações Notáveis
The two are static in terms of voting intention— Guarumo EcoAnalítica poll analysis on Petro and Gutiérrez
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does a seven-point gain for Hernández matter so much if he's still in third?
Because in a runoff, third place becomes irrelevant. What matters is where those voters go. If Hernández's supporters break for him in a second round, he becomes competitive. If they scatter, he doesn't.
So Petro's lead isn't as safe as 37.9 percent sounds?
Not in a runoff. The first round is one contest; the second is another. Petro's ahead now, but against either opponent, he's within the margin of error. That's not a lead—that's a toss-up.
What about Gutiérrez? He's been stable at 30 percent.
Stability can be a weakness. He's not growing. If the race tightens, he has nowhere to go. Hernández is the one with momentum.
Is there a scenario where someone other than Petro wins?
Yes. If Hernández makes the runoff and his voters consolidate around him, he could win. The polling error alone makes it possible. This race is genuinely open.
What does the blank vote and undecided tell us?
That there's still persuadable space. Nearly five percent of voters haven't committed. In a close runoff, those people decide everything.