The two most viable paths forward are both deeply unpopular
As Colombia approaches its May 31 presidential election, the nation finds itself at a familiar crossroads — not of paths converging toward common ground, but of ideological poles pulling in opposite directions. A new AtlasIntel survey places leftist senator Iván Cepeda and far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella in a statistical dead heat at roughly 32 percent each, with the center fragmented and nearly a third of voters still uncommitted. The contest reflects a broader human tension between the desire for radical change and the fear of it, with neither frontrunner inspiring broad affection — only the conviction, for many, that the other must be stopped.
- Colombia's presidential race has crystallized into a collision between ideological extremes, with a leftist senator and a far-right lawyer separated by less than one percentage point in the latest polling.
- High rejection rates — nearly 44% oppose Cepeda and nearly 34% oppose De la Espriella — mean both frontrunners are running as much against each other as they are against their own unpopularity.
- With roughly 30% of voters undecided or leaning toward blank ballots, the race remains dangerously volatile, and any late shift in sentiment could reshape the outcome entirely.
- A June 21 runoff appears all but inevitable, where De la Espriella holds a narrow projected edge over Cepeda — yet Cepeda would defeat every other rival, revealing an asymmetry that makes the matchup uniquely consequential.
- The center-left and centrist candidates trail far behind, and upcoming March primaries are unlikely to produce a challenger capable of breaking the left-versus-far-right dynamic that now defines the race.
Colombia's presidential election, set for May 31, is shaping into a stark ideological confrontation. A new poll from Brazilian firm AtlasIntel, conducted among more than 7,000 voters in late January and early February, shows leftist senator Iván Cepeda of the Pacto Histórico and far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella of the Defensores de la Patria movement effectively tied — 31.4% to 32.1% — within the survey's one-point margin of error.
The rest of the field is distant. Centrist Sergio Fajardo sits at 7.6%, while blank votes, Paloma Valencia, and Claudia López each register below 6%. With nearly 30% of voters still undecided or inclined toward blank ballots, the race carries significant uncertainty despite the apparent clarity at the top.
Neither candidate is likely to win outright in the first round, making a June 21 runoff virtually certain. In that scenario, De la Espriella would narrowly prevail over Cepeda — 36.8% to 34.6% — though Cepeda would beat any other opponent. The asymmetry speaks to a deeply polarized electorate in which the extremes command loyalty that the center cannot match.
Both frontrunners face serious voter rejection: 43.9% oppose Cepeda, 33.6% oppose De la Espriella, and 22.5% reject both. The undecided and blank-ballot voters may ultimately determine which of two widely disliked candidates leads Colombia next. Meanwhile, sixteen other aspirants will compete in party primaries on March 8, but current polling suggests they will enter the general race as supporting characters in a contest already defined by its poles.
Colombia's presidential race is tightening into a standoff between two candidates who occupy opposite ends of the political spectrum. With voting set for May 31, a new poll from the Brazilian firm AtlasIntel shows leftist senator Iván Cepeda and far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella locked in what amounts to a statistical tie, separated by less than a percentage point in voter preference.
De la Espriella, representing the Defensores de la Patria movement, holds a marginal lead at 32.1 percent, while Cepeda, backed by the Pacto Histórico—the party of sitting president Gustavo Petro—trails at 31.4 percent. The survey, conducted between January 27 and February 4 among 7,298 voters, carries a margin of error of one percentage point, which means the two frontrunners are effectively tied. This finding aligns with polling trends over recent months that have consistently identified these two as the electorate's preferred choices, even as they represent sharply divergent ideological positions.
The rest of the field trails considerably. Centrist Sergio Fajardo registers at 7.6 percent, followed by blank votes at 5.3 percent, right-wing candidate Paloma Valencia at 3.8 percent, and center-left politician Claudia López at 3.7 percent. The fragmentation of support outside the top two, combined with roughly 30 percent of voters remaining undecided or committed to blank ballots, suggests the race remains volatile and potentially subject to significant shifts before May.
No candidate appears positioned to win outright in the first round, making a runoff on June 21 virtually certain. In a head-to-head matchup, De la Espriella would narrowly edge Cepeda, 36.8 percent to 34.6 percent, according to AtlasIntel. However, Cepeda would defeat any other candidate in a runoff scenario. This asymmetry reflects the polarized nature of Colombian politics at this moment, with voters at the ideological extremes commanding the most support while the center struggles to consolidate.
Both frontrunners carry substantial baggage in terms of voter rejection. Cepeda faces rejection from 43.9 percent of voters, while De la Espriella is rejected by 33.6 percent. A further 22.5 percent say they reject both candidates, underscoring the challenge facing the electorate: the two most viable paths forward are both deeply unpopular with significant portions of the voting public. This dynamic could prove decisive if the undecided voters and blank-ballot supporters ultimately decide the race.
Neither Cepeda nor De la Espriella will participate in the party primary contests scheduled for March 8, when sixteen other presidential aspirants will compete in separate consultations organized by the center-right, left, and center-left blocs. Those contests will determine which candidates emerge as standard-bearers for the middle of the political spectrum, but current polling suggests they will enter the general election as secondary players in a race increasingly defined by the clash between left and far-right.
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Why are these two so far ahead when both are deeply unpopular?
They're not ahead because people love them—they're ahead because they're the clearest choice. Cepeda represents continuity with Petro's left-wing project. De la Espriella is the unambiguous alternative. Voters seem to want clarity, even if it comes with high rejection rates.
What does that 30 percent of undecided voters actually mean?
It's the wildcard. That's enough to swing the entire race. Those voters could break toward either candidate, or they could stay home. In a runoff, they become kingmakers.
Could someone from the center actually win?
Not according to this data. Fajardo's at 7.6 percent. The center has fractured. What's left are the poles, and the poles are pulling harder than they have in years.
Why would De la Espriella beat Cepeda in a runoff but lose to everyone else?
Because in a two-person race against Cepeda, he consolidates the anti-left vote. Against Fajardo or Valencia, he splits the right. The math changes depending on who's on the ballot.
Is this election about policy or just rejection?
Both. But rejection is driving it. Forty-four percent of people don't want Cepeda. A third don't want De la Espriella. That's not a mandate for anyone—it's a choice between two things people don't want.