Petro appears to have weathered scandal without significant damage
A poco más de un mes de las elecciones presidenciales colombianas del 29 de mayo, el senador izquierdista Gustavo Petro consolida una ventaja que ya no cabe en el margen de error: 44,8% frente a 36,9% de Federico Gutiérrez en un escenario de segunda vuelta. La ampliación de esa brecha, registrada entre más de 4.600 votantes, sugiere que Colombia se aproxima a una encrucijada histórica entre la transformación económica y la continuidad conservadora. Lo que el momento revela no es solo una preferencia electoral, sino la tensión profunda de una nación que debate qué tipo de futuro está dispuesta a arriesgar.
- La ventaja de Petro saltó de un empate técnico a ocho puntos porcentuales en cuestión de semanas, señal de que el impulso de su campaña ha cruzado un umbral difícil de revertir.
- Su agenda de abandonar los combustibles fósiles en favor de energías renovables genera alarma entre inversores y empresarios, convirtiendo la economía en el campo de batalla más volátil de la contienda.
- Un escándalo reciente —la visita de su hermano a funcionarios condenados por corrupción en prisión— amenazó con erosionar el discurso anticorrupción de Petro, pero las encuestas no registran daño significativo.
- Gutiérrez, con 23,8% en primera vuelta, mantiene el respaldo del establecimiento conservador y apuesta por seguridad y estabilidad como contrapeso a la visión rupturista de su rival.
- Con Hernández al 9,6% y Fajardo al 7,2%, el mapa electoral apunta a una segunda vuelta que se perfila como un duelo entre dos visiones de país casi irreconciliables.
A poco más de un mes de los comicios del 29 de mayo, las encuestas colombianas dibujan un escenario que ya no es de suspenso sino de definición: Gustavo Petro, senador de izquierda, lidera con 44,8% frente al 36,9% del conservador Federico Gutiérrez en una hipotética segunda vuelta. El sondeo del Centro Nacional de Consultoría, realizado entre el 18 y el 21 de abril con casi 4.600 votantes y un margen de error de ±1,4 puntos, marca un giro claro respecto a semanas anteriores, cuando ambos candidatos se disputaban el liderazgo dentro del margen estadístico.
En la primera vuelta, Petro encabeza las preferencias con 38%, seguido de Gutiérrez con 23,8%, el exalcalde Rodolfo Hernández con 9,6% y Sergio Fajardo con 7,2%. Si ningún candidato supera el umbral necesario el 29 de mayo, la segunda vuelta se celebraría tres semanas después, y los datos actuales favorecen a Petro en todos los escenarios de emparejamiento.
La propuesta central del candidato izquierdista —reorientar la economía colombiana alejándola de la extracción de hidrocarburos hacia las energías renovables— inquieta a sectores empresariales y a inversores extranjeros. Gutiérrez, en cambio, ofrece continuidad con el modelo económico tradicional y ha construido su campaña sobre promesas de mano dura contra la criminalidad.
Lo que también revelan las encuestas es la resiliencia política de Petro: la visita de su hermano a exfuncionarios condenados por corrupción en una cárcel no ha dejado huella apreciable en su respaldo. Los votantes parecen separar ese episodio del propio historial y discurso del candidato. Con la campaña entrando en su recta final, Colombia se encamina hacia una elección que es, en el fondo, un referéndum sobre el tipo de transformación —o de estabilidad— que el país está dispuesto a abrazar.
With just over a month until Colombia's presidential election, the leftist senator Gustavo Petro has pulled further ahead of his main challenger, according to fresh polling data released this week. The gap between the two frontrunners has widened noticeably since earlier surveys suggested the race remained tight.
In a runoff scenario—the most likely outcome given Colombia's two-round electoral system—Petro would capture 44.8 percent of the vote against 36.9 percent for Federico "Fico" Gutiérrez, the former mayor of Medellín and the conservative establishment's preferred candidate. This represents a meaningful shift from polling conducted just weeks earlier by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría, which had shown the two men separated by a margin small enough to fall within the survey's error range. The new data comes from a survey of nearly 4,600 voters conducted between April 18 and 21, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.
Petro's platform centers on a fundamental restructuring of Colombia's economy, moving the country away from its traditional dependence on fossil fuel extraction and toward renewable energy. This vision has unsettled many in the business community and among foreign investors who worry about the disruption such a shift would entail. Gutiérrez, by contrast, represents continuity with the country's conservative economic model and has built his campaign around promises of aggressive security measures and a hardline approach to crime.
The polling suggests that Petro would defeat any of his opponents in a runoff matchup. In the first round of voting scheduled for May 29, Petro leads with 38 percent support. Gutiérrez trails at 23.8 percent, followed by Rodolfo Hernández, the former mayor of Bucaramanga, at 9.6 percent, and Sergio Fajardo, another former Medellín mayor, at 7.2 percent. A second round would take place three weeks after the initial vote if no candidate clears the threshold needed to win outright.
Notably, Petro appears to have weathered a recent scandal without significant damage to his standing. His brother was caught visiting a prison to meet with former government officials who had been convicted of corruption charges—a development that might have been expected to dent the leftist candidate's anti-corruption messaging. Yet the latest survey shows no dramatic erosion of his support, suggesting voters may be compartmentalizing the incident or viewing it as separate from Petro's own platform and record. As the campaign enters its final stretch, the race appears to be settling into a contest between Petro's vision of economic transformation and Gutiérrez's promise of security and stability.
Notable Quotes
Petro committed to transforming Colombia's economic model away from fossil fuel dependence, a vision that concerns many investors— polling analysis
Gutiérrez, the conservative candidate, promises a hardline security approach— campaign platform
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why has Petro's lead grown so much in just a few weeks?
The earlier survey had them nearly tied within the margin of error. This new one shows an eight-point gap. It could be that his message is resonating more clearly as the election draws closer, or that voters are consolidating around him as the likely runoff candidate.
Does the scandal involving his brother hurt him at all?
You'd think it would. A corruption-adjacent story hitting a leftist candidate who campaigns on cleaning up government—that should sting. But the polling doesn't show a collapse. Either voters see it as separate from Petro himself, or they've already factored it in and moved on.
What's the real difference between these two men?
Petro wants to remake Colombia's economy from the ground up—away from oil, toward green energy. Gutiérrez wants to keep things largely as they are, just with more police and harder enforcement. One is transformation; the other is order.
Are investors nervous about Petro?
Very. A leftist president who wants to phase out fossil fuels in a country that depends on oil revenue—that's a threat to the existing power structure and to foreign capital. Gutiérrez represents reassurance to that world.
Could Gutiérrez still win?
In a runoff, the math gets complicated. But right now, Petro beats everyone in head-to-head matchups. Gutiérrez would need something significant to shift the dynamic in the next month.