Castillo was pulling away from Fujimori, and the gap showed no signs of narrowing.
En el umbral de una elección que podría redefinir el rumbo de Perú, las encuestas revelan una brecha persistente entre dos visiones del país: la del maestro rural Pedro Castillo, que convoca a los márgenes del poder, y la de Keiko Fujimori, heredera de una tradición política marcada por la controversia. Los sondeos de múltiples firmas independientes coinciden en señalar que, a semanas del balotaje del 6 de junio, el electorado peruano se inclina con claridad hacia el candidato de izquierda, aunque un segmento significativo permanece en silencio, aún sin decidir su voto. La historia peruana ha demostrado que las certezas electorales pueden desvanecerse, y que las semanas finales de campaña tienen el poder de reescribir lo que los números parecen decretar.
- Castillo duplica en intención de voto a Fujimori según el IEP: 40% frente a 20%, una ventaja que se repite en encuestadoras como Datum e Ipsos sin señales de reducción.
- Fujimori no logra remontar tras la primera vuelta: su maquinaria política no ha conseguido traducirse en crecimiento en las encuestas, y el tiempo disponible se acorta.
- Entre el 18% y el 26% del electorado permanece indeciso o dispuesto a votar en blanco, un bloque que ambas campañas intentan capturar con urgencia creciente.
- La consistencia entre distintas metodologías y firmas encuestadoras sugiere que el liderazgo de Castillo no es una anomalía estadística, sino un reflejo del estado de ánimo del electorado.
- El desafío para Fujimori es doble: consolidar al votante opositor y convencer a quienes planean anular su voto, mientras Castillo busca proteger su base ante posibles erosiones en la recta final.
El Instituto de Estudios Peruanos publicó el domingo su primera encuesta desde la primera vuelta electoral, y los resultados confirmaron la tendencia que otras firmas ya habían comenzado a trazar: Pedro Castillo, candidato de Perú Libre y maestro rural, mantiene una ventaja sólida sobre Keiko Fujimori de cara al balotaje del 6 de junio. La encuesta, realizada entre el 17 y el 21 de abril por vía telefónica, mostró a Castillo con el respaldo de aproximadamente dos quintos del electorado, frente a apenas un quinto para Fujimori.
La imagen no era exclusiva del IEP. Datum registró a Castillo en 41% e Ipsos también lo situó al frente, con Fujimori sin lograr acortar distancias. En la encuesta de Datum, un 18% se declaró indeciso y un 15% anunció su intención de votar en blanco o nulo, dejando abierta una disputa por ese segmento que podría inclinar la balanza.
Lo que los números revelan va más allá de la aritmética electoral: Fujimori, pese a contar con una estructura política consolidada y un apellido de peso en la historia peruana, no ha encontrado la forma de crecer. Su reto en las semanas que restan es claro: atraer a los indecisos y persuadir a quienes piensan anular su voto. Para Castillo, en cambio, la tarea es proteger lo construido y evitar que su ventaja se diluya. Con cinco semanas por delante y un país profundamente dividido, el impulso hoy es suyo, pero Perú ha enseñado que los mapas electorales pueden cambiar de forma inesperada.
The Peruvian Institute of Studies released a new poll on Sunday measuring voter intention ahead of the June 6 presidential runoff, and the numbers told a familiar story: Pedro Castillo, the leftist teacher and Perú Libre candidate, was pulling away from Keiko Fujimori, the conservative standard-bearer of Fuerza Popular and daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori.
The survey, conducted between April 17 and 21, was the first public measurement from IEP since the first round of voting two weeks prior. It was administered by telephone across the country. The results showed Castillo commanding support from roughly two-fifths of voters, while Fujimori held backing from about one-fifth. The gap was substantial and showed no signs of narrowing.
This was not an outlier. Other major polling firms had already begun releasing their own measurements of the runoff race, and they painted a consistent picture. Datum, which interviewed 1,205 people nationally, found Castillo at 41 percent and Fujimori at 26 percent. An additional 18 percent of respondents remained undecided, while 15 percent said they would cast blank or spoiled ballots. Ipsos Perú had similarly shown Castillo ahead. The pattern across multiple independent surveys suggested the race was not competitive in the traditional sense—Castillo was not merely leading, he was leading by a margin that would be difficult for Fujimori to overcome in the remaining weeks.
The significance of these numbers lay partly in what they revealed about the Peruvian electorate's mood. Fujimori, despite her family name and the resources of an established political machine, had not managed to close ground after the first round. She was not trending upward. The undecided voters and those planning to spoil their ballots represented a pool of potential support, but the direction of movement mattered. Castillo's lead was not a statistical artifact or a polling anomaly—it was being confirmed across different methodologies and different firms.
The runoff itself would take place on June 6, giving both campaigns roughly five weeks to make their case. For Fujimori, the challenge was clear: she needed to consolidate opposition to Castillo among voters who had not yet committed, and she needed to persuade some of those planning to cast blank ballots to vote for her instead. For Castillo, the task was simpler in appearance but not necessarily in execution—hold his base and prevent erosion to undecided voters or blank ballots. The polls suggested momentum was his, but momentum in Peruvian politics could shift quickly, and the country's deep divisions meant that the final outcome would reflect not just polling trends but the intensity and organization of both campaigns in the weeks ahead.
Citações Notáveis
The results showed Castillo commanding support from roughly two-fifths of voters, while Fujimori held backing from about one-fifth.— IEP poll findings
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does a double-digit lead matter this far out from the actual vote? Couldn't things change dramatically?
They could, but the consistency across multiple pollsters is what's striking here. When Datum, IEP, and Ipsos all show the same basic pattern—Castillo well ahead, Fujimori stuck in the mid-20s—it suggests something real about where voters are, not just noise in one survey.
What about the undecided voters? That's a lot of people who could swing things.
True, but the question is whether they're genuinely undecided or whether they're soft supporters of one candidate or the other. And there's also the blank ballot vote—15 percent in the Datum poll. That's significant. It suggests real resistance to both options.
Resistance to Castillo, or to the whole choice?
Probably both. Castillo represents a sharp leftward turn that frightens some Peruvians. Fujimori carries the weight of her family's authoritarian past. For some voters, neither option feels acceptable.
So the runoff could come down to which candidate can better mobilize their base?
Partly that, yes. But also which candidate can convince the persuadable middle that they're the safer choice. Castillo's lead suggests he's already won that argument with a plurality, but Fujimori has five weeks to reframe the narrative.
And if she can't?
Then Castillo becomes president, and Peru shifts in a direction that hasn't been tried in decades. That's what these polls are really measuring—not just preference, but the shape of the country's future.