Kast's Hard-Line Plan: How Chile's New President Aims to Expel Undocumented Migrants in 90 Days

José Antonio Kast won Chile's presidential election with a sweeping mandate, and now he faces the harder task of translating campaign promises into policy. Security and migration were the twin pillars of his campaign, and he has pledged to deliver visible results within ninety days. The plan is straightforward in its ambition: deploy military and police forces to the northern border, streamline deportation procedures, and expel undocumented migrants with speed. But experts who have studied his proposals warn that the path from announcement to execution is neither quick nor simple, and that success will require cooperation from neighboring countries and careful navigation of legal constraints.

Chileans are frightened. An October poll found that nearly two-thirds of adults—63 percent—named crime and violence as their top concern. The fear is not entirely disconnected from reality. Organized crime has taken root in the country, particularly through the arrival of foreign gangs like Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan network that operates across multiple regions and has connections beyond Chile's borders. The group is implicated in killings for hire, kidnapping, extortion, sexual exploitation, human trafficking, and migrant smuggling. Yet the numbers tell a more complicated story. Chile's homicide rate stands at six per 100,000 people, comparable to Peru and far below Ecuador, which recorded 39 per 100,000. The perception of crisis exceeds the statistical reality, though the presence of transnational criminal networks is undeniably real.

The migration piece of Kast's platform rests on a simple premise: more than 300,000 undocumented foreigners live in Chile, and many of them are entangled with criminal activity. His solution involves beefing up border enforcement, simplifying the legal machinery for deportations, and prioritizing the expulsion of migrants with criminal records. He has also signaled support for military involvement in border control and critical infrastructure protection, treating organized crime as a national security threat rather than a law enforcement problem. Pía Greene, a researcher at the Center for Studies in Public Security and Organized Crime at Universidad San Sebastián, sees this as a deliberate shift in approach. Kast has studied international models—the prison system in El Salvador under Nayib Bukele, European approaches like Italy's—and is attempting to link immigration control to organized crime prevention. But Greene also sounds a note of caution. Carabineros and the national police already possess broad powers; what they lacked in recent years was political backing. The social upheaval of 2019 created a retreat from aggressive policing that allowed crime to flourish. Restoring that backing, she argues, is essential. Yet she warns against militarizing the response to crime. Other countries have tried that path and found it led to corruption, institutional decay, and escalating violence.

The deeper challenge, Greene emphasizes, is that enforcement alone cannot sustain security. International evidence is clear: control and punishment must be paired with effective prosecution, meaningful rehabilitation, prevention programs that keep young people out of criminal networks, and high-security prisons for gang leaders. Human rights protections must remain intact. On migration specifically, she notes that rapid deportations face a fundamental obstacle: they require the cooperation of other nations. "Diplomacy will be key," she says. Chile cannot unilaterally expel people; it needs bilateral and regional agreements, particularly with Peru and other neighbors. Security, she observes, is now a transnational phenomenon.

Kenneth Bunker, a political scientist with a doctorate from the London School of Economics, interprets Kast's landslide victory differently. The breadth of his win—across all regions and most municipalities—gives him what Bunker calls a "blank check" to act quickly and potentially exceed his campaign promises. Kast has framed his government as one of emergency, with visible results demanded within ninety days. That framing responds directly to what voters want. Bunker expects Kast to pursue two tracks simultaneously: legislative reforms for long-term change and administrative decrees for immediate wins. Failing to show progress in ninety days risks frustration and political damage. On the hard-line security measures, Bunker is blunt: the evidence works. El Salvador's experience demonstrates that increased police power, more prisons, and coordinated intelligence can reduce crime. The challenge is applying that model within a democracy with institutional checks and balances. The main political constraint is the Senate, where Kast lacks a solid majority and will have to negotiate with an opposition unlikely to hand him easy victories.

On migration, Bunker detects a subtle shift between Kast's original platform and his recent campaign messaging. The rhetoric has moderated somewhat. Rather than mass immediate deportations, Kast appears to be moving toward a policy of incentives for voluntary departure—reducing social benefits, making life harder for undocumented migrants, and offering pathways for them to leave and return legally later. "It's about tightening the screws so you don't have to expel, which is politically harder," Bunker explains. This distinction matters. Forced deportations of hundreds of thousands of people would be logistically complex, diplomatically fraught, and legally vulnerable. Voluntary departure, paired with pressure, is more feasible and less likely to trigger international backlash.

What emerges from these expert assessments is a portrait of ambition constrained by reality. Kast has won a mandate to act on security and migration, and he will move quickly. But the ninety-day window is tight. Military deployment at borders can happen fast. Police budgets can be increased by decree. Deportation procedures can be simplified. What cannot be rushed is the cooperation of neighboring countries, the passage of complex legislation through a divided Congress, or the resolution of the underlying conditions that drive both organized crime and irregular migration. The next months will reveal whether Kast can deliver on his promise of order, or whether the gap between campaign rhetoric and governing capacity will become the defining story of his presidency.