The state's capacity to guarantee order has vanished
Cepeda commands 44.3% support in latest Invamer poll, with right-wing Valencia at 19.8% and ultra-right De la Espriella at 21.5% in fragmented race. Bombing on Pan-American Highway kills 14, injures 38; right-wing candidates blame Petro's 'total peace' policy while demanding hardline security approach.
- Cepeda leads at 44.3%, Valencia at 19.8%, De la Espriella at 21.5%
- Bombing on Pan-American Highway kills 14, injures 38
- First-round voting scheduled for May 31, 2026
- Green Party endorses Cepeda with 74% internal support
- U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno to serve as international observer
With elections set for May 31, leftist Iván Cepeda leads polls at 44.3%, while right-wing candidates Paloma Valencia and ultra-right Abelardo de la Espriella gain ground. Recent terrorist attacks in Cauca intensify security debates.
Colombia's presidential race is tightening as the country lurches toward its May 31 first-round vote, with leftist senator Iván Cepeda holding a commanding but vulnerable lead while right-wing rivals sharpen their attacks on his government's security record. The latest polling shows Cepeda at 44.3 percent, a substantial margin, but the landscape behind him is fractured and volatile. Paloma Valencia, the establishment right-wing candidate from the Democratic Center party, sits at 19.8 percent, while Abelardo de la Espriella, the ultra-right firebrand, has climbed to 21.5 percent—a troubling sign for Cepeda that the opposition is consolidating around a hardline security message.
That message crystallized in blood on a Saturday afternoon when a bomb detonated on the Pan-American Highway in Cauca department, the main artery connecting Colombia to Venezuela and the rest of South America. The blast killed at least fourteen people and wounded thirty-eight others in a stretch of road called El Túnel, in the municipality of Cajibío. The attack came as part of a cascade of violence: a failed assault on military installations in Cali the day before, another strike on a battalion in Palmira. The government blamed the attack on a dissident faction of the defunct FARC led by a commander known as Marlon, operating under the umbrella of Iván Mordisco's organization—a group President Gustavo Petro has made his primary military target.
But the right seized the moment. Valencia, appearing at a campaign event in Antioquia, declared that Petro's government was complicit with the violent groups it claimed to be negotiating with under its "total peace" policy. She promised to end that approach on day one of her presidency, replacing it with what she called "total security." She announced that if elected, she would appoint former president Álvaro Uribe—her political godfather and the intellectual architect of Colombia's right—as her defense minister. De la Espriella went further, declaring the armed groups "military objectives" and vowing to hunt them down "like the vermin they are." Vice President Francia Márquez, a Black woman from Cauca with deep roots in the region, issued a searing statement questioning whether the state retained any capacity to guarantee public order. She had been warning about security deterioration in the southwest since arriving in government in August 2022, she said, and her warnings had gone unheeded.
The violence has scrambled the campaign's political geometry. Cepeda, who had largely avoided public debates, suddenly found himself forced into one. He challenged Valencia and De la Espriella to a substantive discussion of their competing visions. Both accepted. The Green Party, a centrist force that had wavered, formally endorsed Cepeda's candidacy with seventy-four percent of its national leadership voting in favor—though the decision fractured the party, with centrist members lamenting that they could no longer support the moderate Claudia López. López herself demanded three debates with all thirteen candidates still in the race, accusing Cepeda of censorship when he refused. Sergio Fajardo, another centrist, echoed the complaint, warning that excluding candidates would turn any debate into a "farce" that deepened polarization rather than illuminating choices.
The campaign has grown increasingly bitter and personal. De la Espriella faced a court order to retract false statements he had made about former minister Juan Fernando Cristo, who had recently joined Cepeda's coalition. Valencia accused Cepeda of orchestrating government support for his campaign—a charge Cepeda's team rejected but that reflected genuine anxiety about the blurring of lines between state apparatus and electoral machinery. Uribe claimed, without evidence, that the ELN guerrilla group was threatening Valencia and ordering its members to vote for Cepeda. Petro countered that the CIA had informed him of a credible threat against Cepeda himself, though the Defense Ministry later clarified that the CIA had no such information. The accusations flew in both directions, each side accusing the other of using state power improperly.
Meanwhile, the practical machinery of the election ground forward. The National Registry began printing ballots for the first round, with space for thirteen candidates plus a blank vote option. De la Espriella's movement, called Defenders of the Homeland, reported that it had recruited 17,961 poll workers—more than any other political force—a sign of organizational energy on the ultra-right. The Defense Ministry announced a reward of up to one billion pesos (roughly $270,000) for information preventing attacks on any candidate. International observers, including U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno, a Republican with Colombian roots, were being lined up to monitor the vote. The election was becoming not just a domestic contest but a test case watched by Washington and the region, with security concerns and questions about electoral integrity shadowing every development.
Citas Notables
The capacity of the state to guarantee public order and security appears to have disappeared— Vice President Francia Márquez, responding to the highway bombing
This is a government complicit with the violent; they release them, put them on stages, let them throw parties in prisons, and they go out planting bombs and murdering us— Paloma Valencia, criticizing Petro's total peace policy
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Cepeda's lead feel so precarious if he's at 44 percent?
Because forty-four percent in a thirteen-candidate field isn't a mandate—it's a plurality. The right is fragmented between Valencia and De la Espriella, but they're both climbing, and they're unified on one message: that Petro's government has lost control. When a bomb kills fourteen people on a major highway, that message doesn't need to be invented. It just needs to be pointed at.
The "total peace" policy—what is it, and why has it become so toxic?
Petro came in promising to negotiate simultaneously with all armed groups instead of fighting them. It was ambitious, maybe naive. But when the violence keeps escalating anyway, it looks like surrender. Valencia and De la Espriella are saying: we tried talking, it didn't work, now we need force. And the bodies on the highway are their evidence.
What's the significance of the Green Party endorsing Cepeda?
It's a consolidation of the left and center-left. But it cost them—their own members are furious because now they can't support López, the centrist candidate. It shows how polarized things have become. There's no middle ground anymore. You're either with Cepeda or against him.
Why did Cepeda suddenly agree to debate when he'd been avoiding it?
The polls probably told him he had to. You can't be the frontrunner and hide forever. But he's still controlling the terms—only debating the top two challengers, not the full field. That's smart tactically but it looks cowardly to everyone else.
What does the international observation mean?
It means Washington is nervous. A U.S. senator monitoring the vote sends a signal: we're watching, and we care about the outcome. It's both a reassurance to those who fear fraud and a warning to anyone thinking about manipulating the result.
Is there a real threat to the candidates, or is this political theater?
Both. The violence is real—fourteen people died. But the claims about who's threatening whom are murky. Uribe says the ELN is targeting Valencia. Petro says the CIA warned him about threats to Cepeda. The Defense Ministry had to correct the president. In a climate of fear, every accusation becomes a weapon.