A visible flash from Earth, hours of infrared glow
En diciembre de 2024, un telescopio en Chile detectó un asteroide de entre 53 y 67 metros que, tras descartarse cualquier riesgo para la Tierra, apunta ahora con una probabilidad del 4% a impactar la Luna en diciembre de 2032. Lo que comenzó como una alerta de defensa planetaria se ha transformado en una oportunidad científica singular: si el impacto ocurre, la humanidad podría presenciar desde la Tierra el tipo de colisión cósmica que ha esculpido la superficie lunar durante miles de millones de años.
- El asteroide 2024 YR4 superó el umbral crítico del 1% de probabilidad de impacto, activando protocolos formales de notificación ante agencias internacionales de defensa planetaria.
- La amenaza inicial sobre la Tierra generó alarma global, pero las observaciones de la NASA en 2025 disiparon ese riesgo por completo, redirigiendo la atención hacia un nuevo escenario.
- Cálculos publicados en enero de 2026 revelan una probabilidad del 4% de que el asteroide colisione con la Luna en diciembre de 2032, liberando 100 millones de toneladas métricas de material lunar.
- El Telescopio Espacial James Webb refinó las dimensiones del objeto entre 53 y 67 metros, y el estudio que analiza el impacto lunar aún está pendiente de revisión científica formal.
- Si el impacto ocurre, produciría destellos ópticos y un resplandor infrarrojo visible desde la Tierra durante horas, convirtiendo un posible peligro en un evento astronómico histórico.
El 27 de diciembre de 2024, un telescopio en Chile captó el movimiento de un objeto espacial que pronto concentraría la atención de los organismos de defensa planetaria en todo el mundo. El asteroide, bautizado como 2024 YR4 y con un diámetro de entre 53 y 67 metros, fue detectado por ATLAS, el programa de alerta temprana financiado por la NASA y operado por la Universidad de Hawái.
Los primeros análisis de su trayectoria revelaron una pequeña pero real posibilidad de impacto sobre la Tierra el 22 de diciembre de 2032. Esa probabilidad bastó para activar los protocolos formales de notificación: el asteroide superó el umbral del 1% que obliga a alertar a agencias gubernamentales, a la Oficina de la ONU para Asuntos del Espacio Ultraterrestre y a la Red Internacional de Alerta de Asteroides. Su tamaño, suficiente para caber dentro de un estadio de fútbol, justificaba la preocupación.
Sin embargo, a principios de 2025 la NASA confirmó que 2024 YR4 no impactaría la Tierra ni en 2032 ni en ningún futuro previsible. La amenaza directa se disipó, pero la historia no terminó ahí. Un artículo de investigación publicado en enero de 2026 reveló un nuevo escenario: los científicos estiman ahora una probabilidad del 4% de que el asteroide colisione con la Luna ese mismo diciembre de 2032.
De producirse el impacto, generaría un destello óptico brillante seguido de un resplandor infrarrojo que persistiría durante horas, observable desde la Tierra. La colisión liberaría aproximadamente 100 millones de toneladas métricas de material lunar, parte del cual podría escapar de la gravedad de la Luna y alcanzar la atmósfera terrestre. El Telescopio Espacial James Webb ya ha afinado las medidas del objeto, descartando estimaciones previas más amplias.
El estudio que analiza este escenario lunar aún está pendiente de revisión científica formal. Mientras tanto, el asteroide continúa su órbita y los científicos mantienen su vigilancia, transformando lo que comenzó como una alerta de peligro en una ventana abierta hacia los procesos violentos que han dado forma a la Luna a lo largo de miles de millones de años.
On December 27, 2024, a telescope in Chile detected something moving through space that would soon capture the attention of planetary defense officials across the world. The object, designated asteroid 2024 YR4, measures between 53 and 67 meters across—large enough to fit inside a football stadium. It was found by ATLAS, an early-warning asteroid detection program funded by NASA and operated by the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy, which maintains observation stations globally.
When scientists first analyzed the trajectory, they calculated a small but non-zero chance the asteroid might strike Earth on December 22, 2032. That possibility, though remote, was significant enough to trigger formal notification protocols. The asteroid crossed a critical threshold: it exceeded the 1 percent probability benchmark that requires planetary defense agencies to alert other government offices, as well as the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs and the International Asteroid Warning Network. The size alone warranted attention—an impact on Earth could cause localized damage across a wide area.
By early 2025, however, NASA's observations had resolved the uncertainty. The space agency confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 would not strike Earth, neither in 2032 nor in any foreseeable future. The immediate threat to our planet had evaporated. But the story did not end there. New calculations, detailed in a January 2026 research paper titled "Observation Schedules for the Potential Lunar Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4," revealed a different target: the Moon itself. Scientists estimate a 4 percent probability that the asteroid will collide with the lunar surface in December 2032.
If that collision occurs, it will produce something visible from Earth—a phenomenon that has drawn intense scientific interest. The impact would generate a bright optical flash, followed by an infrared glow that would persist for hours. This thermal signature would allow researchers to study the event in unprecedented detail. The collision would release approximately 100 million metric tons of lunar material into space. Some of that dust would escape the Moon's gravity entirely and drift toward Earth's atmosphere, potentially reaching our planet.
The James Webb Space Telescope provided refined measurements that narrowed the asteroid's size estimate. Earlier ground-based observations had suggested dimensions between 40 and 90 meters; the Webb data pinpointed a range of 53 to 67 meters. NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office has flagged the object specifically because of its size and because it crossed the notification threshold. The agency's Near-Earth Object Observations Program finances observatories worldwide to hunt for undiscovered asteroids and track those that pose potential risks. Once orbital data is collected, computational models at NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies calculate how close the asteroid will approach Earth in coming years and decades.
The research paper examining the lunar impact scenario remains under peer review, meaning the scientific community has not yet formally validated the findings. Still, the possibility has shifted the focus of monitoring efforts. If December 2032 brings a lunar impact, observers on Earth will witness a rare cosmic event—not a threat to our world, but a window into the violent collisions that have shaped the Moon's surface for billions of years. For now, the asteroid continues its orbit, and scientists continue their watch.
Citações Notáveis
The asteroid's size is large enough to cause localized damage if it struck Earth, which is why it triggered formal notification to planetary defense agencies and international space authorities.— NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office assessment
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does a 4 percent chance of hitting the Moon warrant this level of attention? That seems quite low.
The threshold isn't really about the probability itself—it's about crossing into a zone where we have to take it seriously. Once an object exceeds 1 percent impact probability, international protocols kick in. You notify other agencies, the UN, everyone. At 4 percent, you're well past that line.
But Earth was ruled out completely. So what's the actual concern now?
The concern shifted. A lunar impact isn't a threat to us, but it's scientifically extraordinary. You'd see a visible flash from Earth, hours of infrared glow, and 100 million tons of material ejected. That's data we've never collected before in real time.
How certain are they about the Moon being the target?
The paper is still under peer review, so nothing is final. But the orbital calculations have gotten much more precise. The James Webb telescope refined the size estimate, which helps narrow the trajectory. They're confident enough to publish, but the scientific community hasn't signed off yet.
If it does hit the Moon, could any of that material actually reach Earth?
Some dust would escape the Moon's gravity and drift toward us, yes. But we're talking about particles dispersing across space. It wouldn't be dangerous—it would just be there, detectable, part of the record of what happened.
So in a way, this asteroid going to the Moon instead of Earth is the best possible outcome?
Exactly. You get the scientific event without any of the risk. It's almost ideal from a research perspective.