Iowa has drifted steadily rightward, but Democrats see an opening
In the quiet but consequential rhythms of democratic renewal, Iowa's political landscape shifts once more as Josh Turek, a Paralympian and state legislator, emerges from a contested Democratic primary to challenge Republican Ashley Hinson for a Senate seat long held by Joni Ernst. The race distills a broader national tension — between moderate and progressive Democratic visions, between a rightward-drifting state and a party seeking footholds — and places Iowa at the center of a midterm struggle that may help determine who governs the Senate. History reminds us that even states that appear settled can surprise, and both parties arrive at this contest with reasons to believe and reasons to worry.
- Iowa's Democratic primary became a proxy war between the party's moderate and progressive wings, with Turek's victory over Zach Wahls signaling that establishment Democrats — backed by figures like Pete Buttigieg — still hold sway in the state.
- Hinson enters the general election as a formidable opponent, carrying endorsements from Trump, Senate leadership, and Ernst herself, and carrying a track record of flipping seats in competitive terrain.
- Iowa has drifted sharply rightward over the past decade, with Trump winning the state by thirteen points in 2024 and Republicans now controlling every major statewide office — a structural challenge Democrats cannot ignore.
- Democrats counter with genuine momentum: recent special election flips in Iowa state Senate races, declining Trump approval ratings, voter frustration over inflation and an unpopular conflict with Iran all suggest the political winds may be shifting.
- With Senate control potentially hanging on a handful of races, this contest between two distinct visions for Iowa's future has become one of the most watched battlegrounds of the 2026 midterm cycle.
Josh Turek, a state representative and Paralympian who flipped a Republican-held Iowa House seat in 2022, won the Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday, defeating progressive state Sen. Zach Wahls in a race that drew heavy national attention and outside spending. Turek positioned himself as a moderate voice within the party, earning the backing of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, while Wahls carried endorsements from Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The primary became a visible skirmish between the party's competing factions before Turek prevailed.
He will now face Republican Ashley Hinson, a former television news anchor in her third congressional term, who won her own primary against former state senator Jim Carlin. Hinson carries an imposing coalition of support — President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the NRSC, and Ernst herself — and is regarded as one of the GOP's rising figures after flipping a Democratic congressional seat in 2020.
The structural terrain favors Republicans. Iowa, which twice backed Barack Obama, has moved steadily rightward — Trump won it by thirteen points last November — and the GOP now controls every major statewide office. Yet Democrats see reasons for optimism: the party in power typically faces midterm headwinds, Trump's approval has softened, and voters are feeling the weight of inflation, high gas prices, and an unpopular military conflict with Iran. Two Democratic flips in Iowa state Senate special elections in 2025 suggest the state may be more competitive than recent presidential margins imply.
The seat itself carries history. Ernst, a retired Army Reserve officer who won it in 2014 with a colorful campaign succeeding longtime Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, leaves behind a contest between two candidates who embody genuinely different ideas about where Iowa — and the country — should go.
Josh Turek, a state representative and Paralympian, won Iowa's Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday, clearing the way for a general election showdown against Republican Ashley Hinson for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. The victory came after Turek defeated progressive state Sen. Zach Wahls in a primary that drew significant national attention and outside spending.
Turek, who flipped a Republican-held Iowa House seat in 2022, positioned himself as a moderate alternative within the Democratic field. His campaign drew backing from former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a signal of establishment Democratic support. Wahls, the progressive challenger, carried endorsements from Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and was framed by Republicans as aligned with figures like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The primary became a proxy battle between moderate and progressive wings of the party, with both sides mobilizing resources and national figures.
On the Republican side, Hinson, a former television news anchor now in her third term representing Iowa's 2nd Congressional District, won her primary against former state senator Jim Carlin. She enters the general election with formidable backing: President Donald Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and the endorsement of Ernst herself. Hinson is widely viewed as a rising star within Republican ranks after successfully flipping a Democratic-held congressional seat in 2020.
The Iowa Senate race ranks among the dozen most competitive contests in this year's midterms, with control of the chamber potentially hanging in the balance. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the Senate, and Democrats have made this seat a top priority. The state itself has undergone a significant political realignment. Once a genuine battleground that twice backed Barack Obama for president, Iowa has drifted steadily rightward. Trump won the state by nine points in 2016, eight points in 2020, and thirteen points in November 2024. Republicans now hold both Senate seats, all four congressional districts, and every statewide office except state auditor.
Yet Democrats enter the general election with some momentum and reasons for optimism. The party in power typically faces headwinds in midterm elections, and the political environment appears challenging for Republicans. Persistent inflation and elevated gas prices weigh on voter sentiment, as does an unpopular military conflict with Iran that polls show lacks public support. Trump's approval ratings have declined. Within Iowa specifically, Democrats point to recent special election victories in 2025 that flipped two GOP-held state Senate seats—a sign that the state may not be as locked in as recent presidential results suggest.
Ernst, who will be succeeded by the winner of this race, has been a prominent figure in Iowa politics since her 2014 election to the Senate. A retired Army Reserve and Iowa National Guard officer who served in Iraq, she won that initial race with a memorable campaign featuring "make 'em squeal" advertisements as she succeeded retiring longtime Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin. The seat she is leaving behind will now be contested between two candidates who represent different visions for Iowa's political future.
Citas Notables
Turek positioned himself as a moderate Democrat backed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg— Campaign positioning
Hinson is seen as a rising star in the Republican party, backed by Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and retiring Sen. Joni Ernst— Republican party leadership
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does Iowa matter so much in this race? It's one state.
Because the Senate is evenly divided. If Democrats flip Iowa and hold their other seats, they could take control. Iowa used to be purple—Obama won it twice. Now it's reliably red. If Democrats can win here, it suggests they can win almost anywhere.
So Turek is the safer choice for Democrats?
That's how his campaign positioned it. He's a moderate who already proved he could win in a Republican district. Wahls was more ideologically pure, backed by Warren. Turek had Buttigieg. The primary was really about which Democrat could actually beat Hinson.
And Hinson—she seems like the obvious Republican choice?
She's the establishment pick. Trump backed her, Thune backed her, Ernst backed her. She flipped a Democratic seat in 2020, so she has a track record of winning in tough terrain. But she's also a former TV anchor, which means she's polished but also potentially vulnerable to attacks about being an outsider to politics.
What's the actual political climate doing here?
It's mixed. Yes, inflation and the Iran war are unpopular, which helps Democrats. But Iowa has moved so far right that even a bad environment for Republicans might not be enough. The special election wins in 2025 suggest there's still a path, but it's narrow.
So this is really about whether Iowa is still winnable for Democrats at all?
Exactly. If Turek can't win Iowa in a midterm with these headwinds, Democrats probably can't win it in any foreseeable future. It's a test of whether the state is truly gone or just dormant.