As Colombia's May 31 presidential election draws near, a country long accustomed to leftist momentum is watching the political ground shift beneath its feet. For the first time, polling places two right-wing candidates — ultra-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and uribista senator Paloma Valencia — ahead of frontrunner Iván Cepeda in hypothetical runoffs, suggesting that first-round leads do not always foretell final outcomes. The consolidation of conservative support, the fragmentation of the center, and a campaign shadowed by accusations, investigations, and institutional distrust remind
El País
· Apr 10, 2026
· governance
· 17 min de leitura
High
Apuração: Caracterizado
De la Espriella y Valencia vencerían a Cepeda en segunda vuelta, según Atlas Intel
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Politics & Governance
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Viés e Enquadramento
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Impacto Geopolítico
🌎
Colombian polling shows rightward shift as ultra-right De la Espriella and uribista Valencia gain ground against leftist frontrunner Cepeda ahead of May 31 election, signaling potential ideological realignment.
Escalation Risk
moderate
Confidence
MED
Colombia
Latin America
South America
Erosion of leftist momentum in Colombia as center-right and ultra-right candidates consolidate anti-Petro/anti-Cepeda vote. De la Espriella's ultra-right faction gains legitimacy while traditional uribismo (Paloma Valencia) remains competitive. Suggests potential coalition-building between right-wing factions to block leftist advancement, weakening the Pacto Histórico's regional influence.
Mirrors 2022 Brazilian election dynamics where right-wing fragmentation initially favored leftist Lula until consolidation in runoff; Colombia may see similar right-wing convergence if Cepeda advances to second round.
Lente Econômica
📈
Colombian election polling shows political shift as ultra-right and uribista candidates gain ground against leftist frontrunner, with potential implications for policy direction and investor confidence.
Market Signal
mixed
Confidence
MED
Financial services and banking
Energy and mining
Agriculture
Infrastructure and construction
Foreign direct investment
Potential policy shifts could affect consumer purchasing power, inflation expectations, and access to credit depending on which candidate prevails. Right-leaning candidates may favor market-oriented policies affecting prices and employment.
Election outcome could determine fiscal policy direction, trade agreements, labor regulations, and environmental standards. A rightward shift might accelerate market liberalization and privatization initiatives, while affecting social spending priorities.