The right is consolidating, but unevenly, and the two candidates are beginning to clash
As Colombia's May 31 presidential election draws near, a country long accustomed to leftist momentum is watching the political ground shift beneath its feet. For the first time, polling places two right-wing candidates — ultra-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and uribista senator Paloma Valencia — ahead of frontrunner Iván Cepeda in hypothetical runoffs, suggesting that first-round leads do not always foretell final outcomes. The consolidation of conservative support, the fragmentation of the center, and a campaign shadowed by accusations, investigations, and institutional distrust remind us that elections are not merely counts of preference, but contests over the soul of a nation.
- For the first time, both right-wing challengers would defeat Cepeda in a runoff — a reversal that redraws the map of what seemed like a settled race.
- Valencia has quadrupled her support since February while De la Espriella has stalled, and the two are now openly clashing over who has the right to claim conservative voters.
- Cepeda is racing to build a center-left alliance, winning the endorsement of liberal reformist Juan Fernando Cristo, even as ex-president Uribe levels unsubstantiated assassination accusations against him.
- A U.S. federal investigation into President Petro's alleged narco ties and the government's disputed request to audit vote-counting software are injecting deep uncertainty about institutional trust into the final stretch.
- With fifteen candidates on the ballot and the center still fragmented, the race remains wide open — and the second round, if it comes, may belong to an entirely different political logic.
Colombia's presidential race has shifted in ways few anticipated. For the first time, polling shows both Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultra-right lawyer, and Paloma Valencia, a senator from the uribista tradition, defeating leftist frontrunner Iván Cepeda in a hypothetical runoff. The Atlas Intel survey puts De la Espriella at 48.8 percent and Valencia at 47.1 percent against Cepeda's roughly 39 percent in each scenario. Cepeda still leads the first round with 38.7 percent, but the trajectory of the right is what commands attention.
Valencia has surged dramatically — from 4 percent in February to 16 percent in March — while De la Espriella has plateaued. The two are now in open conflict over who deserves conservative support. De la Espriella has attacked Valencia for accepting endorsements from establishment figures, calling it a betrayal of political independence. Valencia insists she has made no promises in exchange for backing. The dispute reveals a deeper anxiety: one of them risks being squeezed out before the runoff.
Cepeda, meanwhile, is reaching toward the center. Former Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo, who recently abandoned his own presidential bid, endorsed Cepeda this week under the banner of an "Alliance for Life." Cristo's support came with a subtle critique of the Petro government's troubled "total peace" strategy — a sign that even Cepeda's allies are distancing themselves from the current administration's record. At the same time, Cepeda faces relentless attacks from former president Álvaro Uribe, who has accused him without evidence of involvement in political assassinations. Cepeda has called on Uribe to take his claims to court rather than the press.
The campaign is also shadowed by broader institutional tensions. A reported U.S. federal investigation into President Petro's alleged ties to drug traffickers has injected an international dimension into the race, with Valencia calling for the probe to proceed and Cepeda's team warning against foreign interference. The Petro government's request to audit vote-counting software — resisted by electoral authorities — adds another layer of distrust. With two months remaining and the center still fragmented, the first round may tell only half the story.
Colombia's presidential race is tightening in ways that would have seemed unlikely just weeks ago. For the first time, polling data suggests that both Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultra-right lawyer, and Paloma Valencia, a senator from the traditional uribista right, would defeat Iván Cepeda in a runoff election. The Atlas Intel survey, commissioned by Revista Semana, shows De la Espriella capturing 48.8 percent against Cepeda's 39.8 percent, while Valencia would take 47.1 percent to Cepeda's 39.6 percent. Until now, Cepeda, the leftist frontrunner backed by the ruling Pacto Histórico, has dominated every polling scenario. This shift marks a critical moment as Colombians prepare to vote on May 31.
In the first round, Cepeda still leads with 38.7 percent, followed by De la Espriella at 27.9 percent and Valencia at 23.5 percent. But the trajectory matters more than the snapshot. Valencia has surged dramatically in recent weeks, quadrupling her support from 4 percent in February to 16 percent in March, according to Gad3 polling. De la Espriella, by contrast, has stalled—he gained nothing in the latest Atlas Intel measurement compared to previous surveys from the same firm. The right is consolidating, but unevenly, and the two candidates are beginning to clash over who will inherit conservative votes.
The tension between Valencia and De la Espriella has become openly hostile. De la Espriella, who has positioned himself as a purist outsider rejecting traditional party politics, has attacked Valencia for accepting endorsements from establishment figures and former government officials. "All those people came knocking on my door and I didn't let them in, because this is extreme coherence," he said, suggesting that accepting support from traditional parties disqualifies a candidate from claiming independence. Valencia fired back, insisting she has made no ministerial promises in exchange for backing and that her hands remain clean. The dispute reflects a deeper anxiety on the right: as the two candidates compete for the same voters, one of them risks being squeezed out before the runoff.
Meanwhile, Cepeda is attempting to broaden his coalition beyond the left. He has begun reaching toward the center, and this week former Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo, a liberal reformist who leads the small En Marcha party, formally endorsed him. Cristo, who declined his own presidential bid last week, called for Colombia to "deepen and accelerate social reforms" while correcting course on policies that have failed—a veiled criticism of the Petro government's "total peace" strategy, which sought to negotiate simultaneously with all armed groups. Cepeda's campaign has framed this as the "Alliance for Life," an attempt to show that leftism and liberalism need not contradict each other. Yet Cepeda also faces relentless attacks from former president Álvaro Uribe, who has accused him without evidence of orchestrating the assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay and of plotting to kill Uribe himself. Cepeda has demanded that Uribe present his accusations to the courts rather than air them in public, a call for institutional restraint that underscores how personal and corrosive the campaign has become.
The ballot itself was determined this week by lottery. The Registraduría, Colombia's electoral authority, conducted a random draw to assign candidate positions on the ballot that voters will receive on May 31. Cepeda drew the first spot, a potential advantage in a crowded field of fifteen candidates. De la Espriella landed in position five, Valencia in position twelve. The draw was sparsely attended—only two candidates showed up in person, along with a vice-presidential running mate. The ballot will include fifteen slots, with the final one reserved for blank votes.
Beyond the horse race, the campaign is shadowed by questions about electoral integrity and international pressure. The New York Times reported that two U.S. federal prosecutors are investigating President Gustavo Petro for possible ties to drug traffickers. Petro denied the allegations flatly, writing on X that he has never spoken to a narcotrafficker and that his entire political life has been devoted to exposing the links between traffickers and politicians. Valencia, however, called for American authorities to pursue the investigation fully—a move that drew sharp criticism from María José Pizarro, Cepeda's debate chief, who questioned whether this represented foreign interference in Colombian affairs. The Petro government, for its part, has asked the Registraduría to allow it to audit the software used for vote counting, citing concerns about fraud. The electoral authority has resisted, arguing that exposing the code would make the system vulnerable to manipulation. These disputes over trust in institutions—whether courts, electoral bodies, or foreign governments—are becoming as much a part of the campaign as policy itself.
With two months until the vote, the shape of the race remains fluid. Cepeda holds a commanding lead in the first round, but runoff scenarios reveal a different story. The right is consolidating faster than anyone predicted, and the center—represented by figures like Cristo and candidate Sergio Fajardo—remains fragmented and weak. If no candidate reaches fifty percent on May 31, the second round will be a different contest entirely, one in which the left's current advantage may evaporate.
Citas Notables
All those people came knocking on my door and I didn't let them in, because this is extreme coherence. One cannot be independent when receiving money from everyone.— Abelardo de la Espriella, on Valencia's party endorsements
I have not committed a single ministry, a single position, and people know me for my transparency and clean hands.— Paloma Valencia, responding to De la Espriella's criticism
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does it matter that Valencia and De la Espriella are now fighting each other instead of presenting a united right?
Because they're competing for the same voters. If they split the conservative vote in the first round, Cepeda could win outright without a runoff. But if one of them drops out or consolidates support before May 31, the dynamics flip entirely.
So the runoff scenarios showing them beating Cepeda—those assume the right has already unified?
Exactly. Those polls show what happens if De la Espriella or Valencia makes it to the second round as the sole right-wing candidate. In a one-on-one matchup, either of them beats Cepeda. But getting there requires eliminating the other, and they're not cooperating.
What's De la Espriella's actual complaint about Valencia accepting endorsements?
He's claiming she's not truly independent because she's taking support from traditional parties and former government officials. He's positioning himself as the pure outsider. But it's also a way of saying: she's compromised, I'm not, vote for me instead.
And is that argument working?
Not yet. Valencia has gained ground while De la Espriella has stalled. Her endorsements from establishment figures seem to be helping her, not hurting her. She looks like a serious alternative to both the left and the ultra-right.
What about Cepeda's move toward the center with Juan Fernando Cristo?
It's defensive. He's trying to prevent the center from consolidating around someone else. Cristo is a liberal, a reformist—he brings credibility with voters who don't want the left but also don't want the hard right. By absorbing him, Cepeda is trying to hold the middle ground.
But Cepeda is still being attacked by Uribe without evidence. Does that weaken him?
It muddies the waters. Uribe's accusations are baseless, but they circulate anyway. Cepeda's insistence on taking it to court is institutionally sound but politically risky—it sounds defensive. In a campaign, perception matters as much as fact.