Voters show more resistance to Cepeda than to his rival
Colombia stands at a crossroads familiar to democracies navigating the tension between continuity and change. Polling conducted by Atlas Intel for Semana magazine in early June shows right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella holding a commanding 7.7-point lead over leftist Iván Cepeda ahead of the presidential runoff, a margin built not on a single moment but on a steady accumulation of voter confidence across nearly every policy domain. The numbers suggest that Colombians, weighing security, economy, and democratic governance, are leaning toward a departure from the ruling left — a signal that carries weight beyond any single election.
- De la Espriella has consolidated majority support at 50.3%, a threshold that gives his campaign the psychological and strategic weight of a frontrunner rather than a contender.
- Cepeda's slow climb from 40.4% to 42.6% since mid-May has failed to close the gap, leaving the left in a race where the distance is not shrinking fast enough.
- Across crime, international relations, democracy, and economic management, voters trust De la Espriella more — Cepeda's only edge is environmental stewardship, a narrow foothold in a broad policy battlefield.
- A majority rejection rate of 56.6% for Cepeda signals something deeper than a polling deficit — it points to a structural resistance that ground-level campaigning alone may struggle to overcome.
- With undecided voters at just 2.9%, the runway for a dramatic reversal is short, and the ruling coalition faces the uncomfortable reality that the electorate may already have made up its mind.
A new Atlas Intel survey conducted alongside Semana magazine on June 1st and 2nd has sharpened the picture of Colombia's presidential runoff, and the image it reveals is one of a right-wing candidate with momentum, breadth, and a lead that has proven durable.
Abelardo de la Espriella commands 50.3% of stated runoff support against Iván Cepeda's 42.6% — a 7.7-point gap that reflects not a sudden surge but a sustained recovery. After dipping to 44% in mid-May, De la Espriella climbed back to 50% by May 21st and has held that level into June. Cepeda has moved upward too, but incrementally, and the distance between them has not meaningfully narrowed.
The policy dimension of the survey deepens De la Espriella's advantage. Voters trust him more on crime and drug trafficking by an 18-point margin, on international relations by 20 points, on strengthening democracy by 14 points, and on economic management by 11 points. Cepeda leads on only one front — environmental stewardship — by a modest four points.
Perhaps the most consequential finding is the rejection question. A majority of respondents — 56.6% — say they would most strongly reject Cepeda as president, compared to 40.3% for De la Espriella. That 16-point gap in negative sentiment is not merely a competitive disadvantage; it suggests the ruling left faces a structural problem with the electorate that polling momentum alone cannot easily resolve.
With undecided voters accounting for less than 3% of respondents, the space for a reversal is narrow. For Cepeda and the coalition behind him, the weeks ahead would need to produce a shift in voter sentiment that the data, as it stands, does not yet anticipate.
Colombia's political landscape is crystallizing ahead of a runoff election that will determine the country's direction. A new survey from Atlas Intel, conducted with Semana magazine on June 1st and 2nd, shows the right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella building a substantial lead over his leftist opponent Iván Cepeda as voters prepare for the second round of voting.
When asked directly who they would support in the runoff, respondents favored De la Espriella by a clear margin. He captured 50.3% of stated support, while Cepeda, the standard-bearer for the ruling left, drew 42.6%—a gap of 7.7 percentage points. The remaining voters were split among those planning to cast blank ballots (3.7%), those who said they would not vote or cast invalid votes (0.5%), and those still undecided (2.9%).
The trajectory of De la Espriella's support reveals a candidate who has gained momentum in recent weeks. In mid-May, he had dipped to 44%, but by May 21st he had climbed to 50%, and he has held that level into early June. Cepeda's movement has been slower and less dramatic. He started mid-May at 40.4% and has inched upward to his current position, a pace that has failed to close the distance between the two men.
When the survey probed voter confidence in each candidate's ability to handle critical government functions, De la Espriella's advantage became even more pronounced. On crime and drug trafficking, he led 57% to 39%. On international relations, the margin was 56% to 36%. On strengthening democracy, he held 54% to Cepeda's 40%. In economic management and inflation control, De la Espriella led 53% to 42%. Cepeda managed to lead on only one dimension: environmental stewardship, where he registered 48% to De la Espriella's 44%.
Perhaps most telling for the ruling coalition's prospects is the question of rejection. When asked which candidate they would reject most strongly as president, voters showed substantially more resistance to Cepeda. He faced majority rejection of 56.6%, while De la Espriella's rejection level stood at 40.3%—a 16-point difference that underscores the political headwinds facing the incumbent left. Only 3.1% of respondents said they rejected both candidates equally.
The data suggests that as Colombia moves toward its runoff vote, the left faces not merely a competitive challenge but a structural problem: voters appear more willing to embrace the right-wing alternative than to continue with the ruling coalition. De la Espriella's lead is substantial, his momentum is recent and sustained, and his advantage spans nearly every policy domain that voters consider important. For Cepeda and the left, the path to victory would require a significant shift in voter sentiment in the weeks ahead.
Citas Notables
De la Espriella recovered ground steadily after a dip in mid-May, climbing from 44% to 50% by late May and holding that level into early June— Atlas Intel polling trend
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a 7.7-point lead matter this far out from the actual vote?
Because it's not just the margin—it's the shape of it. De la Espriella has momentum. He was at 44% in mid-May and climbed to 50%. That's real movement, not noise. Cepeda is barely moving.
What about the undecided voters? Couldn't they swing this?
They're only 2.9%. That's almost nothing. Even if every undecided voter went to Cepeda, he'd still lose. The real problem for him is the rejection number—56.6% of people actively don't want him as president.
So it's not that people love De la Espriella, it's that they dislike Cepeda?
Exactly. De la Espriella's rejection is 40.3%. That's still high, but it's 16 points lower. People aren't necessarily voting for the right-wing candidate—they're voting against the left.
What about the issues where Cepeda should be strong—like the environment?
He wins on environment 48 to 44. But that's one issue out of many, and it's not the one voters are thinking about most. Crime, drugs, the economy—those dominate the conversation, and De la Espriella owns those.
Is this a done deal, then?
Polling can shift, but you'd need something dramatic to happen. A scandal, a major policy announcement, a debate that changes minds. Right now, the structural advantage belongs to De la Espriella.