They are choking like a stuffed pig, and it is going to be worse
Sixty-one days into a war neither side has won, the United States and Iran find themselves locked in a slow, suffocating standoff — one measured not in battlefield advances but in oil prices, empty shelves, and the quiet arithmetic of poverty. President Trump has chosen economic strangulation over military escalation, wagering that a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will extract nuclear guarantees that bombs could not. Peace mediators in Pakistan wait for a revised Iranian proposal, but the distance between the two positions remains vast, and the human cost on both sides continues to accumulate.
- Oil has climbed toward $120 a barrel and global shipping routes are being redrawn as the US naval blockade enters its third month with no end in sight.
- Iran's parliament is staging public shows of unity even as analysts warn the blockade has put half of all Iranian jobs at risk and pushed millions deeper into poverty.
- Six US Army Reserve soldiers died in a drone strike on a position survivors say lacked adequate air defenses — a failure Defense Secretary Hegseth struggled to explain before a combative Congress.
- Trump has downgraded diplomacy to phone calls, dismissing the 18-hour flights to Islamabad as pointless when he already expects to dislike whatever proposal Iran delivers.
- European allies are fraying: Germany's chancellor called the situation a humiliation for the US, and Trump responded by threatening to review the American troop presence in Germany.
- A revised Iranian ceasefire proposal is expected Friday, but Trump has made clear he will accept nothing short of ironclad nuclear guarantees — leaving the blockade as the default trajectory.
Sixty-one days in, the US-Iran conflict has hardened into a grinding stalemate. President Trump has rejected Iran's central demand — lifting the naval blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz — insisting that any deal must include ironclad guarantees against Iranian nuclear weapons development. "They can't have a nuclear weapon," he told Axios, describing the blockade as more effective than bombing. Peace mediators in Pakistan are expecting a revised Iranian proposal by Friday, but the diplomatic track carries little momentum, and Trump has grown so impatient that he has shifted negotiations to phone calls, dismissing the 18-hour flights to Islamabad as pointless.
The economic damage is accumulating on both sides of the standoff. Oil has climbed toward $120 a barrel, disrupting global trade. Inside Iran, analysts at the Quincy Institute estimate the blockade has placed half of all Iranian jobs at risk and pushed an additional five percent of the population into poverty — compounding a fragility that predates the war, when per capita income had already fallen from $8,000 to $5,000 over the previous decade. The Iranian government has launched an energy conservation campaign, asking offices to cut electricity use by up to 70 percent in the afternoons. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, mocked Trump's predictions of imminent infrastructure collapse, but the quieter damage is real and deepening. A joint statement signed by 261 of 290 lawmakers projected unity, though the very urgency of such appeals hinted at fractures beneath the surface.
At the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced sharp congressional questioning about the war's $25 billion price tag and, more pointedly, about the deaths of six Army Reserve soldiers killed on March 1 when an Iranian drone struck a makeshift operations center at Shuaiba port in Kuwait. Survivors said the position lacked adequate air defenses despite repeated requests. Hegseth acknowledged that threats could get through but insisted every possible precaution had been taken. Thirteen American service members have been killed in total. Vice President JD Vance, meanwhile, pushed back against a report suggesting he had privately raised concerns about missile depletion, calling the account a distortion.
The war's ripples are spreading outward. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the United States was being humiliated by Iran; Trump responded by questioning Merz's judgment and announcing a review of US troop levels in Germany — a pointed threat given that Ramstein Air Base sits on German soil. Merz quickly softened his remarks. In the region, Israeli forces intercepted an aid flotilla bound for Gaza in international waters, surrounding the vessel and pointing weapons at crew members; Israel dismissed the ship as a publicity stunt while the flotilla and Greenpeace described threats of violence and jammed communications. And in a Wednesday phone call, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to help manage Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, echoing Moscow's role in the 2015 nuclear agreement — an offer Trump did not rule out.
The question hanging over all of it is whether Friday's Iranian proposal will offer anything new, or whether the blockade will simply tighten further, with both sides settling deeper into a conflict that neither appears ready to end.
Sixty-one days into the war with Iran, the conflict has settled into a grinding stalemate. Peace mediators in Pakistan expect to receive a revised Iranian proposal by Friday, but the diplomatic track shows little momentum. President Trump, meanwhile, has rejected Iran's core demand—lifting the naval blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz—insisting instead on ironclad guarantees that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons. "They can't have a nuclear weapon," he told Axios, describing the blockade as more effective than bombing. "They are choking like a stuffed pig."
The economic toll of that blockade is mounting everywhere. Oil prices have climbed toward $120 a barrel, and the disruption to shipping has begun to reshape global trade patterns. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, mocked Trump's predictions that Iranian oil infrastructure would collapse within days, sardonically offering to livestream the wells on social media if they did. But the real damage is quieter and slower. According to analysts at the Quincy Institute, the blockade has placed half of all Iranian jobs at risk and pushed an additional 5 percent of the population into poverty. Iran's economy, already fragile before the war—per capita income had fallen from $8,000 in 2012 to $5,000 by 2024—is now contracting further. The Iranian government has launched an energy conservation campaign, instructing offices to cut electricity use by up to 70 percent after 1 p.m. and offering discounts to households that reduce consumption. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad urged the public to treat conservation as a religious duty.
At home, the Pentagon disclosed that the war has cost roughly $25 billion since late February, with most of that money spent on munitions and equipment replacement. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended the spending and the military's overall performance during a contentious congressional hearing, but he faced sharp questioning about specific failures. Six Army Reserve soldiers were killed on March 1 when an Iranian drone struck a makeshift operations center at Shuaiba port in Kuwait. Survivors reported that the position lacked adequate air defenses despite repeated requests. When Democratic Representative Patrick Ryan pressed Hegseth on the discrepancy between the Pentagon's public statements and soldiers' accounts, Hegseth acknowledged that "something could get through" but insisted the military had taken "every effort possible" to protect troops. Thirteen American service members have been killed in total. The hearing also revealed tensions within the administration over the war's trajectory. Vice President JD Vance dismissed a report in The Atlantic suggesting he had raised concerns about missile depletion, calling the story based on unnamed sources and insisting his actual views were being misrepresented.
Trump's relationship with European allies has grown strained. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the United States was "being humiliated" by Iran, prompting Trump to question whether Merz "knows what he's talking about." On Wednesday, Trump posted that the administration was "studying and reviewing" a possible reduction of troops in Germany—a significant threat given that Ramstein Air Base, home to US Air Forces in Europe, is located there. Merz quickly walked back his criticism, saying his relationship with Trump remained "good," but the message was clear: the president views insufficient allied support as disloyalty.
Meanwhile, Trump revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin had offered to help with Iran's enriched uranium during a phone call Wednesday. Moscow has previously proposed taking control of Iran's uranium stockpile, mirroring its role in the 2015 nuclear deal. Trump did not rule out shipping Iranian uranium to Russia but suggested he was more focused on resolving the Ukraine conflict, which he said could end on a similar timetable to the Iran war. "I think Ukraine, militarily, they're defeated," he said, apparently misspeaking when he meant to refer to Iran. He went on to describe Iran's naval losses—159 ships now underwater—as evidence the country could not mount a comeback.
Back in the Middle East, Israel's military chief visited troops in southern Lebanon and told them to continue operating on the front lines while maintaining positions up to 10 kilometers deep in Lebanese territory. The Israeli military has said it will not go beyond what it calls the Forward Defense Line for now, but will eliminate threats even beyond that zone. In international waters off Gaza, Israeli military speedboats intercepted an aid flotilla bound for Gaza, surrounding it and pointing assault weapons at crew members. The Global Sumud Flotilla, which had set sail from Barcelona on April 12, said Israeli forces threatened kidnapping and violence. Israel's Foreign Ministry claimed the boarding was of a "PR stunt flotilla" and alleged finding "condoms and drugs" aboard—allegations the flotilla called misinformation. Greenpeace confirmed that its affiliated vessel Arctic Sunrise had received a radio warning from the Israeli navy and that communication channels had been jammed. This was the flotilla's second attempt to reach Gaza; in October, Israeli forces had detained hundreds of people, including Swedish activist Greta Thunberg.
Back in Iran's parliament, roughly 261 of 290 lawmakers signed a joint statement on April 27 expressing support for the country's negotiating team, including Ghalibaf. The move was framed as a show of unity rather than a formal vote, part of a broader push by Iranian officials to project cohesion. Ghalibaf warned that "every divisive action is part of the enemy's plan" and called on the public to maintain unity against what he termed a new "conspiracy." Yet the very need for such appeals suggested underlying fractures—whether over the conduct of the war, the terms being negotiated, or the economic pain being inflicted on ordinary Iranians.
Trump, for his part, has grown impatient with the pace of diplomacy. He told CNN that negotiations are now happening "telephonically" rather than through in-person delegations, saying he dislikes the 18-hour flights required to send teams to Islamabad. "When you have to fly 18 hours every time you want to have a meeting, and you know what the meeting is all about, and you know they're going to give you a piece of paper that you don't like before you even leave, it's ridiculous," he said. The question now is whether Iran's revised proposal, expected Friday, will move the needle—or whether the blockade will simply tighten further, deepening the economic crisis and pushing both sides deeper into a conflict with no clear exit.
Notable Quotes
The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig.— President Trump, to Axios
Every divisive action is part of the enemy's plan. We must maintain unity.— Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Trump keep rejecting Iran's proposals if the blockade is working so well?
Because for him, the blockade is leverage, not an end in itself. He wants nuclear guarantees first. The blockade is the tool that keeps Iran desperate enough to negotiate on his terms.
But doesn't the blockade hurt American consumers too? Oil prices are climbing.
Yes, and that's becoming a political problem. Democrats in Congress are pointing out that gas and food prices are rising because of the war. But Trump seems willing to absorb that cost if it means preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
What about the soldiers who died at Shuaiba? Does that change anything?
It's created a credibility gap. Hegseth says the military took maximum precautions, but the soldiers who survived say the position wasn't defended properly. That contradiction is hard to explain away, and it's making Congress skeptical of Pentagon claims.
Is there any chance Russia actually helps end this?
Putin offered to take Iran's uranium, which mirrors what happened in the 2015 deal. But Trump seemed more interested in talking about Ukraine. Russia might be positioning itself as a broker, but it's not clear Trump sees that as the priority right now.
What's the real cost of keeping this going?
Twenty-five billion dollars so far, mostly on weapons. But the human cost is harder to measure—half of Iranian jobs at risk, millions pushed into poverty, thirteen American soldiers dead. And it's only been two months.