A gap of 21 percentage points that underscored the incumbent's weakening position
Com cinco meses antes das eleições de outubro, uma nova pesquisa Datafolha revela que o Brasil se aproxima de uma escolha histórica entre passado e presente: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva lidera com 48% das intenções de voto, contra 27% do presidente Jair Bolsonaro. A saída de João Doria da corrida presidencial reconfigurou o campo político, abrindo espaço para uma terceira via ainda em busca de forma e substância. O momento captura uma democracia em movimento — polarizada, mas não inteiramente fechada.
- A vantagem de 21 pontos percentuais de Lula sobre Bolsonaro sinaliza um enfraquecimento real do incumbente a menos de cinco meses do pleito.
- A retirada de Doria deixou um vácuo no centro do espectro político que partidos como MDB, PSDB e Cidadania correm para preencher com a senadora Simone Tebet.
- Ciro Gomes estagna em 7%, enquanto nenhum outro candidato ultrapassa 2%, revelando um campo fragmentado incapaz de rivalizar com os dois polos dominantes.
- A entrada de novos nomes como Pablo Marçal torna as comparações com pesquisas anteriores imprecisas, injetando volatilidade num cenário aparentemente consolidado.
- Com 4% de indecisos e 7% de votos brancos e nulos, uma fatia significativa do eleitorado ainda resiste à polarização binária.
Uma pesquisa Datafolha divulgada na quinta-feira mostrou Lula com 48% das intenções de voto para as eleições presidenciais de outubro, contra 27% do presidente Jair Bolsonaro — uma diferença de 21 pontos percentuais que evidencia o enfraquecimento do incumbente na reta final da campanha.
Foi a primeira sondagem do instituto desde que João Doria, ex-governador de São Paulo e candidato do PSDB, retirou sua candidatura em maio. Com sua saída, MDB, PSDB e Cidadania passaram a articular a senadora Simone Tebet como alternativa ao duelo Lula-Bolsonaro. Ciro Gomes ficou em terceiro com 7%, e nenhum outro candidato superou 2%. Na medição espontânea, sem lista de nomes, Lula marcou 38% e Bolsonaro, 22%.
Em relação à pesquisa anterior, de março, Lula cresceu cinco pontos, enquanto Bolsonaro avançou apenas um. O Datafolha alertou, porém, que as comparações são limitadas: Doria e Sérgio Moro saíram da disputa, e novos candidatos como Pablo Marçal entraram, alterando o universo de escolhas apresentado aos entrevistados. A pesquisa ouviu 2.556 eleitores em 181 municípios e tem margem de erro de dois pontos percentuais.
O cenário retrata uma corrida cada vez mais definida pela polarização entre dois projetos de país, mesmo diante dos esforços centristas por uma terceira via. A persistência de indecisos e a chegada de novos candidatos mantêm aberta uma janela de movimento — pequena, mas real — antes do veredicto de outubro.
A new Datafolha poll released on Thursday showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva commanding a commanding lead in Brazil's presidential race, with 48 percent of voters saying they would support him in October's election. President Jair Bolsonaro trailed at 27 percent—a gap of 21 percentage points that underscored the incumbent's weakening position as the campaign entered its final stretch.
This was the first measurement from Datafolha since João Doria, the former São Paulo governor and PSDB candidate, withdrew from the race earlier in May. Doria's exit had opened space for a potential third-way candidacy, with the MDB, PSDB, and Cidadania parties coalescing around senator Simone Tebet as an alternative to both Lula and Bolsonaro. Ciro Gomes, the former Ceará governor running under the PDT banner, held third place with 7 percent. Every other candidate polled at 2 percent or below. Blank and null votes accounted for 7 percent, while 4 percent of respondents said they remained undecided.
When asked without being offered a list of names—the so-called spontaneous measure—Lula's support stood at 38 percent, with Bolsonaro at 22 percent. The margin of error for the survey was two percentage points in either direction.
Compared to Datafolha's previous poll, conducted in late March, Lula had gained five percentage points, rising from 43 to 48 percent. Bolsonaro had ticked up by one point, from 26 to 27 percent. The institute cautioned, however, that the two surveys were not directly comparable because the political landscape had shifted substantially. Doria and former judge Sérgio Moro had both exited the race, while new candidates like Pablo Marçal of the Pros party had entered the field, reshaping the choices presented to voters.
The poll interviewed 2,556 voters aged 16 and older across 181 Brazilian municipalities between May 25 and 26. It was commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo and registered with electoral authorities under the number BR-05166/2022.
The results reflected a race increasingly defined by a binary choice between Lula and Bolsonaro, despite efforts by centrist parties to establish a credible third option. With five months remaining before the October election, the trajectory suggested a contest in which the former president's advantage had only solidified since his 2018 defeat. Yet the persistence of undecided voters and the volatility introduced by new candidacies meant the final outcome remained subject to movement. The entrance of figures like Tebet and Marçal into the race, along with the ongoing consolidation of support among remaining candidates, would likely shape the campaign's final phase.
Citações Notáveis
The institute cautioned that the two surveys were not directly comparable because the political landscape had shifted substantially, with Doria and Sérgio Moro exiting and new candidates like Pablo Marçal entering.— Datafolha
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Doria's withdrawal matter so much to this particular poll?
Because it's the first measurement after he left. Doria had been a significant figure—a sitting governor with resources and a national profile. His exit signals that the center-right couldn't coalesce around a single candidate, which changes the strategic calculus for everyone else. It opens the door for Tebet and the third-way project, but it also means those votes have to go somewhere.
The gap between Lula and Bolsonaro is enormous—21 points. Is that typical for this stage of a campaign?
It's substantial, but not unprecedented. What's notable is that Bolsonaro hasn't moved much since March. He gained one point. Lula gained five. That suggests Bolsonaro's ceiling might be lower than his campaign hoped, while Lula's consolidating support among voters who were previously uncertain.
What about the undecided voters—4 percent who don't know?
That's actually quite low for this point in the race. Most of those 4 percent will likely break toward one of the major candidates as the campaign intensifies. The real question is whether Bolsonaro can peel away any of Lula's 48 percent, or whether Tebet and Marçal can establish themselves as genuine alternatives.
Does the spontaneous measure tell us something different from the stimulated one?
Yes. When you don't read names, Lula drops to 38 and Bolsonaro to 22. That 10-point gap between the two measures suggests some voters need to be reminded of the options. It's a softer form of support—not false, but less crystallized. Those voters might be persuadable.
What does this poll not tell us?
It doesn't tell us how voters feel about specific issues, or whether Bolsonaro's base is truly locked in or just habitual. It doesn't capture regional variation—support might look very different in the Northeast versus the South. And it was taken over just two days, so it's a snapshot, not a trend.