Brother, I am and will always be with you, there's no half-talk between us.
48% dos eleitores defendem que Flávio Bolsonaro desista da candidatura presidencial, enquanto 44% apoiam sua permanência na disputa. 72% dos entrevistados acreditam que Flávio e o banqueiro Daniel Vorcaro têm relação próxima; 64% avaliam que o senador agiu mal ao pedir dinheiro.
- 48% of voters want Bolsonaro to withdraw; 44% want him to stay
- 64% believe Bolsonaro acted wrongly in asking for money; 25% think he acted well
- 88% of Bolsonaro's own supporters say he should remain a candidate
- In a runoff, Lula leads 47% to Bolsonaro's 43%; in a first round, Lula leads 40% to 31%
- 72% of voters believe Bolsonaro and banker Vorcaro have a close relationship
Pesquisa Datafolha mostra divisão eleitoral sobre candidatura de Flávio Bolsonaro após revelação de mensagens com banqueiro Daniel Vorcaro solicitando financiamento para filme sobre Jair Bolsonaro.
A revelation of private messages between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and banker Daniel Vorcaro has split the Brazilian electorate almost evenly. A Datafolha poll released on Friday shows that nearly half of voters—48 percent—believe Bolsonaro should withdraw from the 2026 presidential race and back another candidate in the wake of the disclosed conversations. Another 44 percent say he should stay in the fight. Eight percent offered no opinion.
The messages, first published by The Intercept Brasil, showed Bolsonaro asking Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, for financial support to produce a film about his father's political history. Bolsonaro later confirmed the exchanges existed but characterized them as a son seeking private sponsorship for a private project—nothing more, he insisted, with no quid pro quo involved.
Yet the court of public opinion has rendered a harsher judgment. Two-thirds of those surveyed—64 percent—said Bolsonaro acted wrongly in making the request. Only a quarter thought his conduct was acceptable. The perception of closeness between the two men is nearly universal: 72 percent of respondents believe Bolsonaro and Vorcaro have a tight relationship, a view reinforced by a message in which Bolsonaro told the banker, "Brother, I am and will always be with you, there's no half-talk between us."
The damage appears contained among Bolsonaro's own supporters, however. Among those who already backed him, 88 percent say he should remain a candidate despite the controversy. Only 10 percent of his voters think he should step aside. This suggests a hard core of loyalty that the revelations have not shaken—though it's worth noting that 62 percent of all voters said they were not considering voting for him even before the messages surfaced.
Among the smaller group who had been considering supporting him, the impact is more mixed. Two-thirds of them say their confidence in him has not changed. But 18 percent report that their trust has diminished, while 14 percent say it has actually grown—a reminder that political scandals do not move everyone in the same direction.
The broader electoral picture shows Bolsonaro under pressure. In a hypothetical runoff against President Lula, the incumbent leads 47 to 43 percent—a four-point advantage that represents a shift from their previous tie. In a first-round scenario with multiple candidates, Lula's lead widens to nine points, 40 to 31 percent. The Datafolha survey, conducted from May 20 to 22 among 2,004 voters with a margin of error of two percentage points, was the first comprehensive measurement after the messages became public.
Should Bolsonaro decide to withdraw, voters have clear preferences about who should inherit his support. Thirty-nine percent say he should back his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro. Seventeen percent each would prefer him to support either Romeu Zema or Ronaldo Caiado. Ten percent name his brother Eduardo. Eight percent think he should back no one at all. The fragmentation of these preferences suggests that a Bolsonaro exit would not automatically consolidate opposition to Lula.
What remains unclear is whether the senator will read the polling data as a warning or dismiss it as noise from a skeptical electorate. His core voters have given him permission to stay. The question now is whether the broader movement he represents can weather the damage to his credibility, or whether the messages have opened a door that his opponents will walk through.
Notable Quotes
I am and will always be with you, there's no half-talk between us— Flávio Bolsonaro, in a message to banker Daniel Vorcaro
A son seeking private sponsorship for a private film about his father's history, with no quid pro quo involved— Flávio Bolsonaro's characterization of his request to Vorcaro
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does this poll matter right now? It's just numbers.
Because it's the first full measurement after the messages went public. It tells us whether the revelation actually moved people, or whether everyone was already locked in.
And what does it show?
A country split almost exactly in half—48 percent want him out, 44 want him to stay. That's not a mandate either way. It's a warning.
But his own voters still back him. Eighty-eight percent.
Yes. That's the thing that keeps him in the race. His base hasn't abandoned him. But that base was never that large to begin with—only 38 percent of voters were even considering him before this happened.
So the messages didn't persuade his supporters, but they might have confirmed doubts for everyone else.
Exactly. Two-thirds of his potential voters say their confidence hasn't changed. But a fifth say it's gone down. In a close race, that matters.
What about the money question—does the public care that he asked for it?
Sixty-four percent think he acted wrongly. That's a strong majority. But he has a defense: he says it was private sponsorship for a private film. Some people believe that. Some don't.