Iran threatens retaliation as protests escalate amid U.S. intervention warnings

At least 116 people killed in protests, including 37 security force members, with authorities conducting mass funeral processions and intensifying crackdowns on demonstrators.
If you come in, we will not absorb the blow quietly.
Iran's parliament speaker warned that Israel and U.S. bases would become targets if America strikes Iranian territory.

Iranian officials issued explicit threats to target Israel and U.S. military installations in response to potential American strikes during escalating domestic unrest. Death toll from protests reaches 116 as authorities intensify crackdowns; U.S. President Trump signals readiness to intervene while Israel maintains high alert status.

  • 116 people killed in protests since December 28, including 37 security force members
  • Internet connectivity reduced to 1% of normal levels by government blackout since Thursday
  • Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio discussed possibility of U.S. intervention in phone call Saturday
  • Iran and Israel fought 12-day war in June 2025; U.S. joined Israel in airstrikes

Iran's parliament speaker warned of retaliation against Israel and U.S. bases if attacked, as anti-government protests escalate with 116 reported deaths and internet blackouts hampering information flow.

On Sunday, Iran's parliament speaker issued an unmistakable warning: if the United States strikes Iranian territory, Israel and every American military installation in the region would become legitimate targets. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, delivered the message from the parliament floor in Tehran, framing it as a caution against miscalculation. The threat arrived as the country convulsed with the largest anti-government demonstrations since 2022, and as President Donald Trump signaled from Washington that America stood ready to intervene.

The protests that began on December 28 have metastasized across Iran's cities. They started as a response to economic hardship—soaring inflation that has squeezed ordinary Iranians—but have evolved into something larger: a direct challenge to the clerical system that has governed since the 1979 revolution. The death toll has climbed to 116, according to HRANA, a U.S.-based human rights organization. Most of the dead are protesters, though 37 are members of the security forces. State television has broadcast funeral processions in western cities like Gachsaran and Yasuj, with authorities announcing that 30 security personnel would be buried in Isfahan and six had been killed by what officials called "rioters" in Kermanshah. A mosque in Mashhad was torched on Saturday night.

The Iranian government has blamed the United States and Israel for fomenting the unrest, a familiar accusation that carries particular weight given the region's history. Trump, posting on social media Saturday, declared that "Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!" In a phone call the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the possibility of American intervention, according to an Israeli source present for the conversation. Israel, meanwhile, has placed itself on high alert, though Israeli officials have declined to specify what that posture entails.

The authorities in Tehran have moved aggressively to suppress the demonstrations. An internet blackout imposed Thursday has crippled information flow; Netblocks, an internet monitoring organization, reported that national connectivity had fallen to roughly 1 percent of normal levels. Despite this digital isolation, videos have emerged showing large crowds in Tehran's Punak neighborhood at night, residents drumming rhythmically on bridge railings and metal objects in an apparent act of defiance. The Revolutionary Guards accused "terrorists" of attacking security facilities, while Iran's police chief said security forces had intensified their efforts to confront what he termed "rioters."

The current crisis unfolds against a backdrop of recent military escalation. Israel and Iran fought a twelve-day war in June of last year, during which the United States joined Israel in launching airstrikes. Iran responded by firing missiles at an American air base in Qatar. That history shapes the current standoff: both sides have demonstrated willingness to strike, and both have shown capacity to retaliate. A senior U.S. intelligence official described the situation Saturday as an "endurance game"—the opposition attempting to maintain pressure until key government figures either flee or defect, while authorities try to instill enough fear to clear the streets without providing Washington with justification to intervene.

Netanyahu, in an interview with the Economist published Friday, warned of "horrible consequences" should Iran attack Israel, but he also appeared to signal restraint, suggesting the world should "see what is happening inside Iran." The Israeli government has not signaled a desire to intervene directly, despite the two nations' deep antagonism over Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. What unfolds now depends on whether the demonstrations can sustain momentum, whether the security forces can maintain control, and whether Trump's administration will move from rhetoric to action—a calculation that Iran's leaders are clearly trying to influence with their threats.

In the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories as well as all U.S. bases and ships will be our legitimate target.
— Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iranian Parliament Speaker
Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help.
— President Donald Trump, on social media
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Inventor

Why did Iran's parliament speaker feel compelled to make such an explicit threat on Sunday?

Model

Because the threat of U.S. intervention is no longer theoretical. Trump has been posting about it publicly, Netanyahu and Rubio are on the phone discussing it, and Israel is on high alert. Qalibaf was essentially drawing a line: if you come in, we will not absorb the blow quietly.

Inventor

But doesn't that threat actually increase the risk of intervention?

Model

Possibly. But Iran's calculation seems to be that silence looks like weakness, and weakness invites action. They're signaling that the cost of intervention would be unacceptable. Whether that deters or provokes depends on how seriously Washington takes it.

Inventor

The death toll is 116. That's significant. Why hasn't that alone triggered international response?

Model

Because the narrative is contested. The government calls them rioters and terrorists. The opposition calls them protesters exercising rights. And the internet blackout means the world is seeing fragments, not the full picture. A U.S. official called it an endurance game—both sides testing how long they can hold their position.

Inventor

What does Israel actually want here?

Model

That's unclear. Netanyahu is watching carefully but hasn't signaled a desire to intervene. Israel's real concern is Iran's nuclear program and missiles, not the domestic politics. But if the government falls, that calculation changes entirely.

Inventor

So the internet blackout is strategic?

Model

Absolutely. It prevents coordination among protesters, limits documentation of security force actions, and controls the narrative. When connectivity is at 1 percent of normal, you can't organize, you can't broadcast, you can't prove what happened.

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