I'm tired of that same old political narrative
On a Sunday in June 2026, more than 41 million Colombians face a choice that echoes through decades of war and peace: whether to pursue dialogue with armed groups or return to the logic of force. The frontrunner, Abelardo de la Espriella, channels a global current of anti-establishment fervor and promises swift military solutions to a conflict that has resisted resolution for generations. His opponent, Iván Cepeda, defends the fragile architecture of negotiation even as violence climbs to its worst levels since the 2016 FARC accord. The outcome will not only determine Colombia's path but will further redraw the political map of Latin America.
- Violence in Colombia has surged to its most alarming point since the 2016 peace agreement, creating fertile ground for promises of decisive, forceful action.
- De la Espriella, a far-right lawyer who has represented paramilitary clients, has recast himself as an outsider insurgent, vowing to capture or eliminate ten major criminal figures within his first ninety days.
- Cepeda's peace-centered campaign has stalled — he lost the first round and has failed to consolidate centrist voters despite real social gains under the Petro government.
- The election is landing within a broader regional wave: with Fujimori leading in Peru and Kast already in Chile's presidency, a de la Espriella win would leave only four Latin American countries under leftwing rule.
- Sunday's vote will determine whether Colombia doubles down on negotiation or trades an imperfect peace process for a military confrontation whose costs, history suggests, are measured in hundreds of thousands of lives.
Colombia votes Sunday in a runoff that will decide the future of its oldest war. The frontrunner is Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right lawyer and businessman who admires Trump and has promised to dismantle President Gustavo Petro's "total peace" initiative — replacing negotiations with armed groups with a military campaign to hunt down criminal leaders and retake contested territory. His opponent, leftwing senator Iván Cepeda, is the architect of that peace plan and argues it needs adjustment, not abandonment. More than 41 million Colombians are eligible to cast ballots.
De la Espriella's rise follows a recognizable pattern. Despite a long career representing wealthy clients and paramilitary figures, he has positioned himself as an anti-establishment outsider. Political scientist Sandra Borda Guzmán of Los Andes University argues he has fused two powerful global currents: anti-political sentiment and the promise of rapid security fixes. That combination has resonated deeply in a country where violence has climbed to its worst levels since the 2016 FARC peace agreement — not yet at the catastrophic scale of the 1990s, but trending in an alarming direction. Voters like Miguel Bermúdez, a 40-year-old business administrator from Cartagena, say they are simply exhausted by the old political narrative and want something that feels genuinely different.
Cepeda's campaign has struggled to convert that exhaustion into hope. He led polls for much of the race but lost the first round and has since failed to consolidate centrist support. The Petro years did produce real gains — expanded social programs, a higher minimum wage, and poverty at its lowest level since 2012 — but those achievements have not been enough to carry his successor. Some voters, like Kátia Outten, a dentist from San Andrés island, remain committed to Cepeda, motivated in part by de la Espriella's crude remarks about winning female voters — a reminder, she said, that women represent just over half the electorate and can make their power felt.
The stakes extend well beyond Colombia's borders. A de la Espriella victory would deepen the far-right wave already reshaping Latin America, leaving only Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, and Guatemala under leftwing governments. For Colombia itself, the shift would be profound: the peace agreement with the FARC was designed to close a conflict that killed hundreds of thousands, and while it did not end the war entirely, it changed its character. Petro's total peace plan sought to negotiate with all remaining armed groups; de la Espriella wants to fight them. Sunday's vote will determine which logic prevails.
Colombia votes on Sunday in a runoff that will reshape how the country wages its oldest war. The choice is stark: continue negotiating with armed groups, or return to the military approach that defined decades of bloodshed. Polls show the frontrunner is Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right lawyer and businessman who admires Trump and has promised to dismantle the "total peace" initiative that President Gustavo Petro launched. Instead, de la Espriella wants to hunt down criminal leaders and retake territory controlled by armed organizations through force. His opponent is Iván Cepeda, a leftwing senator and the architect of the peace plan, who argues for continuing negotiations with necessary adjustments. More than 41 million Colombians are eligible to vote.
De la Espriella's rise reflects a broader pattern sweeping Latin America. He has positioned himself as an outsider despite a long career as a lawyer for wealthy clients and paramilitary leaders. He promised to capture or kill ten major narcoterrorist and organized crime figures within his first ninety days in office, though he later walked back the timeline. Sandra Borda Guzmán, a political scientist at Los Andes University in Bogotá, notes that de la Espriella has successfully merged two global trends: anti-establishment messaging and the promise of swift solutions to violence. "Between the international trend favouring candidates who present themselves as anti-political figures and Colombia's domestic security situation, that combination has helped him significantly," she said.
The timing matters. Violence in Colombia has reached its worst point since the 2016 peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or Farc. The country is not returning to the catastrophic levels of the 1990s and early 2000s, but the trajectory is upward and alarming. This reality has shaped how voters think about their choices. Miguel Bermúdez, a 40-year-old business administrator from Cartagena, said he plans to vote for de la Espriella because he represents something different from the political establishment. "For a long time, I've been looking for something that feels fresh. I'm tired of that same old political narrative," he said.
Cepeda's campaign has struggled. He led polls through most of the race but lost the first round three weeks ago and has since failed to consolidate centrist support. Petro's presidency did expand social programs and raise the minimum wage, and the poverty rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2012. But those gains have not been enough to carry his chosen successor across the finish line. Kátia Outten, a 57-year-old dentist from San Andrés island, said she would vote for Cepeda because he understands ordinary people's needs. She rejected de la Espriella partly because of comments he made in a radio interview about winning female voters through crude sexual boasting. "Women make up just over 50% of the population. If we go out and vote with women's empowerment in mind, we can show that all of that rhetoric has no basis," she said.
A de la Espriella victory would extend the far-right wave reshaping the region. Keiko Fujimori is leading Peru's vote count, and José Antonio Kast won Chile's presidency last year. If de la Espriella wins, only Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, and Guatemala would remain under leftwing governments. For Colombia, the shift would be profound. The peace agreement with the Farc was meant to end a conflict that had killed hundreds of thousands. It did not end the war—criminal organizations and dissident Farc factions continue fighting for territory and drug routes. Petro's "total peace" plan attempted to negotiate with all armed groups. De la Espriella wants to fight them instead. Sunday's vote will determine which path the country takes.
Citações Notáveis
Between the international trend favouring candidates who present themselves as anti-political figures and Colombia's domestic security situation, that combination has helped him significantly.— Sandra Borda Guzmán, political scientist at Los Andes University
For a long time, I've been looking for something that feels fresh. I'm tired of that same old political narrative.— Miguel Bermúdez, business administrator from Cartagena
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does this election matter beyond Colombia's borders?
Because it signals whether Latin America's turn toward the far right continues. If de la Espriella wins, leftwing governments become the exception in the region, not the rule. That reshapes alliances, trade, and how the hemisphere approaches security.
But hasn't Colombia tried military solutions before?
For decades. The conflict killed hundreds of thousands before the 2016 peace deal. Violence dropped significantly after that, but it's rising again. De la Espriella is betting that voters have lost faith in negotiation and want force instead.
What does "total peace" actually mean in practice?
It means sitting down with every armed group—not just the Farc, but criminal organizations, dissident factions, everyone—and trying to negotiate their disarmament. It's ambitious and messy. De la Espriella sees it as naive.
Is there evidence that military approaches work better?
That's the question voters are wrestling with. The pre-2016 military campaigns were brutal and didn't eliminate the armed groups. But violence is up now, so people are frustrated with the peace approach too.
Why is de la Espriella winning if he's not really an outsider?
Because he talks like one and promises quick fixes. He's a lawyer for the wealthy, but he's not a traditional politician. In times of fear, that outsider label matters more than the actual record.
What happens if he wins?
Colombia likely shifts to a military-first strategy. That could mean more combat, more displacement, more casualties. It could also mean a different kind of failure—the military approach didn't work before either.