Courage and leadership are sources of inspiration for all
In the shadow of a fragmented Colombian presidential race, right-wing candidate Paloma Valencia reached across borders this week to embrace Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, framing the gesture as a defense of regional democracy. The move is as much strategic as symbolic: Valencia sits in a statistical dead heat for the second-place finish that would carry her into a June runoff against leftist frontrunner Iván Cepeda. In moments of electoral uncertainty, candidates often seek to define themselves not merely by policy but by the company they keep — and the values that company represents.
- With less than two months before Colombia's first-round vote, Valencia is locked in a near-perfect tie with ultraright rival De la Espriella, both hovering around 20% while Cepeda commands the field at 34–37%.
- The video call with Nobel laureate María Corina Machado was immediately broadcast on social media, transforming a private exchange into a public declaration of ideological allegiance.
- Valencia's camp is betting that aligning with the hemisphere's most prominent anti-authoritarian voice will consolidate conservative and anti-Chavista voters who fear a leftward regional drift.
- The math behind the maneuver is precise: should Valencia reach the runoff, she trails Cepeda by just three points — a far tighter contest than the double-digit gap her rival De la Espriella would face.
- Coalition-building has become the decisive battleground, and every symbolic move now carries the weight of a potential presidency.
Paloma Valencia, senator and presidential candidate for Colombia's right-wing Centro Democrático party, held a video call this week with María Corina Machado — the Venezuelan opposition leader and recent Nobel Peace Prize recipient. Joined by two other Venezuelan opposition figures, the conversation was presented by Valencia as an act of regional solidarity. She publicly praised Machado's courage and described her as an inspiration in the broader struggle to defend democracy across Latin America, including in Colombia itself.
The gesture arrives at a pivotal moment. Valencia has recently climbed into contention for second place in voter polls, putting her in reach of Colombia's June 21 presidential runoff. Leftist candidate Iván Cepeda, backed by President Gustavo Petro's coalition, leads comfortably at 34–37%. But the race for second is genuinely unsettled: one survey shows Valencia at 22% with ultraright candidate Abelardo de la Espriella at 15%, while another places the two in a technical tie at roughly 20% each.
The stakes of that tie are considerable. Runoff projections suggest that if De la Espriella faces Cepeda, the left wins decisively. If Valencia makes it through, the margin shrinks to roughly three points — a contest that could go either way. Her outreach to Machado, then, is not merely symbolic. By anchoring herself to the hemisphere's most recognizable anti-authoritarian figure, Valencia is working to consolidate voters who fear regional leftward drift, staking out ideological ground that could prove decisive in the weeks ahead.
Paloma Valencia, a Colombian senator and presidential candidate from the right-wing Centro Democrático party, connected by video call this week with María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year. The conversation, which also included Venezuelan opposition figures Humberto Villalobos and Pedro Urruchurtu, was framed by Valencia as a moment of regional solidarity. In a statement posted to social media, Valencia thanked Machado for the call and described her as a source of inspiration, emphasizing what she called Machado's courage and leadership in the struggle to protect democracy—not just in Venezuela, but across the region, including Colombia.
Valencia's public embrace of Machado comes as she fights to secure a spot in Colombia's presidential runoff, scheduled for June 21. The election landscape has shifted in her favor recently. On March 22, polling data showed Valencia climbing to second place in voter intention, a significant move that puts her in contention for the final round. The frontrunner remains Iván Cepeda, the leftist candidate backed by President Gustavo Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition, who holds a commanding lead in most surveys.
The numbers tell a competitive but fragmented story. One poll from the Centro Nacional de Consultoría showed Cepeda at 34.5 percent, Valencia at 22.2 percent, and ultraright candidate Abelardo de la Espriella at 15.4 percent. But a separate survey by Guarumo and Ecoanalítica painted a tighter race for second place: Cepeda still ahead at 37.5 percent, but De la Espriella and Valencia nearly tied at 20.2 and 19.9 percent respectively—a difference so small it falls within the survey's margin of error. This technical tie means the battle for the runoff spot remains genuinely uncertain.
If the race proceeds to a second round, as appears increasingly likely, the dynamics shift depending on who faces Cepeda. Against De la Espriella, Cepeda would win decisively, 44.9 to 36.4 percent. But if Valencia makes the runoff, the contest tightens considerably: Cepeda would prevail 43.3 to 40 percent—a margin of just three points. That narrower gap suggests Valencia's path to the second round could reshape the entire final contest, making her coalition-building efforts and public positioning, like the call with Machado, strategically significant.
Valencia's outreach to the Venezuelan opposition also signals how Colombian candidates are positioning themselves on regional issues. By publicly aligning with Machado and framing the conversation as a defense of democracy in the hemisphere, Valencia is staking out territory on a question that resonates with conservative and anti-Chavista voters in Colombia. The timing—less than two months before the May 31 first round—suggests she is working to consolidate support among voters concerned about leftward drift in the region, even as she remains in a statistical dead heat with her rivals for the second-place finish that would guarantee her a shot at the presidency.
Notable Quotes
I thank our heroine María Corina Machado for her call this afternoon. It is very valuable to have the collaboration of her entire team to protect democracy in Colombia. Her courage and leadership are a source of inspiration for all.— Paloma Valencia, in a statement on social media
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a Colombian candidate's call with a Venezuelan opposition figure matter enough to report?
Because it signals how candidates are positioning themselves on regional politics just weeks before an election. Valencia is saying: I stand with democratic opposition to Chavismo. That appeals to a specific bloc of voters.
But isn't she just behind in the polls? Could this be a publicity move?
Possibly both things at once. She's fighting for second place—literally tied with another candidate within the margin of error. Any move that consolidates her base matters. But the substance is real: Machado is a significant figure, and the call happened.
What changes if Valencia makes the runoff instead of De la Espriella?
Everything tightens. Cepeda beats De la Espriella by nine points. He beats Valencia by three. That's the difference between a landslide and a genuine contest.
So she needs to win over voters who might otherwise go left?
Or consolidate right-wing voters who are split three ways. The call with Machado does both—it energizes the anti-left base while positioning Valencia as a serious regional player, not just a domestic candidate.
Does this help her actually win, or just make the runoff?
Right now, making the runoff is the battle. Winning it comes after. But yes, if she gets there, every coalition matters. A three-point gap is winnable.