Either they do nothing and risk seeing Russia humiliated, or they come to Russia's aid and risk a much-bigger deterioration with the West.
Three days after the International Criminal Court branded Vladimir Putin a war criminal, Xi Jinping became the first world leader to visit Moscow — a deliberate act that placed China at the center of one of history's most consequential balancing acts. Fresh from securing an unprecedented third term, Xi arrived carrying a twelve-point peace proposal in one hand and a 'no-limits' partnership in the other, seeking to project the image of a responsible mediator while refusing to abandon a strategic ally under siege. The visit forced into the open a tension that Beijing had long managed to obscure: that neutrality, when held long enough beside complicity, begins to resemble it.
- The ICC's arrest warrant for Putin, issued just days before Xi's arrival, cast an unsparing light on a meeting Beijing had hoped to frame as statesmanship.
- China faces a strategic trap with no clean exit — a Russian defeat destabilizes a vital partner, while weapons transfers would rupture ties with the West and destroy China's carefully cultivated peacemaker image.
- Washington dismissed any Chinese ceasefire role as cover for Russian consolidation, warning that a pause now would only give Putin time to rearm and strike again.
- Kyiv remained cautiously hopeful for a direct call with Xi, but held firm that any peace must include full Russian withdrawal — a condition Moscow has shown no willingness to meet.
- Xi's twelve-point proposal, broad in principle and empty of mechanism, sits suspended between genuine diplomacy and strategic theater, with Western skepticism deepening by the day.
Xi Jinping landed in Moscow on a Monday in late March, three days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin for the alleged forced deportation of Ukrainian children — a war crime. No other world leader had visited since the warrant dropped. Xi would be the first.
The timing carried weight on every side. Xi had just secured an unprecedented third term as China's leader, and this was his first foreign trip since that consolidation. Putin, writing in a Russian state newspaper on the eve of the visit, called Xi his 'good, old friend' and spoke warmly of their 'no-limits' partnership. Multiple agreements were expected to be signed over three days of meetings.
Beijing had spent months positioning itself as a neutral mediator, publishing a twelve-point peace proposal that called for dialogue but offered no concrete path forward. Xi's government framed the Moscow visit as a chance to play a 'constructive role' — but the visit made the underlying tension impossible to ignore. As one London-based analyst put it, China faced a bind: allow Russia to stumble toward defeat and lose a crucial ally, or provide military support and shatter its relationships with the West.
Western governments were watching with deep suspicion. The White House warned that a ceasefire now would simply ratify Russia's territorial gains and give Putin time to regroup. Australia and the United States had both cautioned Beijing against arms transfers. European leaders, meanwhile, urged Xi to use his influence to push Putin toward peace.
Ukraine's position was more measured. President Zelenskyy had not spoken to Xi since the war began and hoped a call might finally come. Kyiv accepted China's peace framework in principle but insisted any settlement require full Russian withdrawal, including from Crimea — a condition Moscow showed no sign of accepting.
Neither China nor Russia recognizes the ICC, and the Kremlin dismissed the warrant as legally meaningless. But the warrant had done its work regardless, throwing into sharp relief the image of Xi walking into Moscow to embrace a man the international community had formally accused of war crimes — and testing whether China's peacemaker identity could survive the embrace.
Xi Jinping landed in Moscow on a Monday in late March, three days after an international court had made Vladimir Putin a wanted man. The International Criminal Court had issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president, accusing him of war crimes tied to the forced deportation of Ukrainian children across the border. No other world leader had visited Putin since that warrant dropped. Xi would be the first to shake his hand.
The timing was deliberate and loaded. Xi had just secured an unprecedented third term as China's Communist Party chief weeks earlier, and this was his first trip abroad since that consolidation of power. Putin, in a piece published in a Russian state newspaper on the eve of the visit, called Xi his "good, old friend" and expressed hope that the three-day meeting would deepen their "no-limits" partnership, which they had formalized the year before. The two men were scheduled to have lunch together, and Kremlin officials promised multiple agreements would be signed.
But the visit exposed a tension that Beijing had managed to avoid until now. China had never condemned Putin. It had never even used the word "invasion" to describe Russia's war in Ukraine. Instead, it had positioned itself as a neutral mediator, publishing a twelve-point proposal last month that called for dialogue and settlement—though the document offered only broad principles, no concrete path to ending the year-long conflict. Xi's government framed the trip as an opportunity to deepen mutual trust and play what it called a "constructive role" in resolving the crisis.
Yet the math was unforgiving. Jonathan Eyal, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, laid out the bind plainly: China could do nothing and watch Russia stumble toward defeat in Ukraine, which would destabilize a crucial ally. Or it could send weapons and military support to Moscow, which would shatter its relationship with the United States and Europe and undermine the image of China as a responsible global power seeking peace. There was no clean choice.
Western capitals were watching closely. Australia and the United States had both warned China against supplying Russia with weapons. The White House went further, expressing extreme skepticism about any role China might play in brokering a ceasefire. John Kirby, the White House spokesperson, said on Fox News that a ceasefire now would simply "ratify Russia's conquest to date" and give Putin time to rearm and prepare for new offensives. European leaders, meanwhile, were urging Xi to pressure Putin toward peace.
Ukraine's response was more cautious. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had not spoken to Xi since the war began, and he was hopeful a call might finally happen. Ukraine welcomed China's peace proposal in principle but made clear that any settlement would require Russia to withdraw from all occupied territory, including Crimea, which Russia had annexed in 2014. That was a condition Moscow showed no sign of accepting.
Neither China nor Russia was a member of the ICC, and the Kremlin dismissed the court's warrant as legally void and outrageous. But the warrant had done something neither Beijing nor Moscow wanted: it had cast a harsh light on a meeting that was already delicate. Xi had spent months positioning himself as a peacemaker, a leader of a responsible great power. Now he was walking into Moscow to embrace a man the international community had branded a war criminal. The visit would test whether China could maintain that image while standing by its most important strategic partner.
Citações Notáveis
We are grateful for the balanced line of China in connection with the events taking place in Ukraine. We welcome China's willingness to play a constructive role in resolving the crisis.— Vladimir Putin, in an article published before Xi's visit
A ceasefire now would just ratify Russia's conquest to date and give Putin more time to re-fit, re-train, and try for renewed offensives.— John Kirby, White House spokesperson
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does it matter that Xi is the first leader to visit Putin after the ICC warrant?
Because it's a statement. Every other world leader stayed away. Xi went anyway. That tells you something about where China's loyalties lie, regardless of what Beijing says about neutrality.
But China says it's trying to broker peace. Isn't that a legitimate role?
On paper, yes. The twelve-point proposal sounds reasonable. But it has no teeth. And the West sees it as cover—a way for China to look balanced while actually propping up Russia.
What's the real dilemma for Xi here?
He needs Russia as a counterweight to the West. But if Russia loses in Ukraine, that whole calculation falls apart. If he helps Russia win, the West treats him as complicit. He's trapped.
Could China actually tip the balance if it sent weapons?
Potentially, yes. That's why the US and Australia are so focused on warning him off. But it's also why the temptation is real for Beijing.
What does Putin get out of this visit?
Legitimacy. A photo of him with Xi says to the world: I'm not isolated. I have a great power backing me. That matters when you're under an arrest warrant.
And what does Xi get?
The harder question. He gets to say he's trying to make peace. But he also gets entangled with a man the ICC has accused of war crimes. That's a long-term liability.