Entering at current levels risks catching a falling knife
As Indian markets step into 2026, the Nifty 50's quiet consolidation has given way to a purposeful rally, inviting analysts to read the charts not merely as numbers but as a map of collective confidence. Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities sees in the index's technical structure — rising momentum, broad participation, and strengthening heavyweights — a path toward 26,500 and beyond. Yet the same week that rewards the patient holder of Glenmark or UNO Minda issues a sobering reminder through ITC's 13 percent collapse: markets reward discernment, and not every fallen price is an opportunity.
- The Nifty 50 snapped weeks of tight consolidation with a 450-point rally across four sessions, signaling that the market's pause was a gathering of energy rather than a loss of direction.
- Bank Nifty stole the spotlight, breaking out of a falling channel to post a fresh all-time high, with momentum indicators — RSI at 67.55, a positive MACD histogram, and aligned Stochastic — forming a rare convergence of bullish signals.
- Glenmark Pharma and UNO Minda each delivered textbook breakouts from prolonged consolidation and downtrend patterns respectively, with surging volumes lending credibility to both moves.
- ITC's brutal 13 percent weekly decline following a cigarette excise tax hike has left the stock below its 200-week moving average with an RSI near 15 — a technical landscape Shah describes plainly as a falling knife.
- NHPC and Bosch are quietly extending gains, with Bosch's widening Bollinger Bands hinting that a fresh trending move, not merely a bounce, may be underway.
Indian markets entered 2026 with a sense of renewed direction. After spending much of December locked in its tightest monthly range since August 2023, the Nifty 50 broke free last week, rallying nearly 450 points from a recent low to reclaim 26,325. The move was broad and deliberate — led by index heavyweights, confirmed by rising futures rollover data, and accompanied by the kind of trader conviction that had been absent during the consolidation phase.
Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, sees the daily RSI's push above 60 as a meaningful signal. He projects the Nifty extending toward 26,500 in the near term, with 26,700 as a subsequent milestone and support holding at 26,150–26,100. Bank Nifty has been the more dramatic story: a decisive breakout from a falling channel, a fresh all-time high, and a cluster of aligned momentum indicators paint what Shah considers a decisively bullish picture, with targets at 60,600 and then 61,200.
Among individual names, Shah favors Glenmark Pharma — which has cleared a multi-session consolidation ceiling near Rs 2,055 with rising RSI and ADX — and UNO Minda, whose breakout above a downward trendline, backed by surging volumes and a close above the upper Bollinger Band, signals a genuine trend reversal. He recommends accumulating both within defined zones, with clear stop-losses and short-term targets of Rs 2,200 and Rs 1,410 respectively. NHPC and Bosch are also flagged as candidates for continued gains, with Bosch's expanding Bollinger Bands suggesting the start of a fresh trending phase rather than a simple recovery.
The week's starkest lesson, however, came from ITC. A government announcement of a cigarette excise tax hike sent the stock into a 13 percent freefall, breaking key support at Rs 400–395 on heavy volume and pushing the RSI to a deeply oversold reading near 15. On the weekly chart, the damage is structural: ITC has slipped below its 200-week exponential moving average and violated a long-standing upward trendline. Shah's counsel is unambiguous — this is not a dip to buy, but a knife still falling. Patience, and the discipline to wait for genuine stabilization, is the only prudent response.
The Indian stock market opened 2026 with momentum to spare. The Nifty 50 scaled fresh record highs in early December, then spent weeks in a holding pattern—moving within a narrow 633-point band, the tightest monthly range since August 2023. But something shifted last week. Over four trading sessions, the index rallied nearly 450 points from its recent low of 25,878, climbing back toward 26,325. The move was broad-based, anchored by strength in the heaviest stocks and backed by rising trader confidence: futures rollover for December climbed to 72.29 percent, above November's 68.77 percent and slightly ahead of the three-month average.
Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, reads the charts as pointing toward further upside. The daily RSI has pushed above 60, a sign of strengthening momentum. The prevailing structure, he argues, suggests the Nifty could extend toward 26,500 in the near term, with 26,700 as a subsequent target. Support sits at 26,150–26,100. Bank Nifty, meanwhile, has been the real outperformer. The index broke decisively out of a falling channel last week with a nearly 2 percent rally, delivering a fresh all-time high. The technical picture looks decisively bullish: the daily RSI has climbed to 67.55, the MACD histogram has turned positive, and the Stochastic oscillator aligns with the upward momentum. Shah sees Bank Nifty reaching 60,600 next, followed by 61,200, with support anchored at 59,700–59,600.
Among individual stocks, Shah is backing two names for the coming week. Glenmark Pharma has broken out above a Rs 2,000–2,055 consolidation range that had capped prices for six trading sessions. The RSI has climbed to 67 after defending the 60 level twice since December 26, and the ADX is rising, signaling improving trend strength. The stock trades comfortably above all key moving averages. Shah recommends accumulating in the Rs 2,065–2,045 zone with a stop-loss at Rs 1,990, targeting Rs 2,200 in the short term. UNO Minda presents a different setup: a clear breakout above a downward-sloping trendline on the daily chart, signaling a reversal in trend. The stock held its 100-day exponential moving average twice in mid-December, showing demand at lower levels, then recovered steadily. The breakout is backed by surging volumes. The RSI has moved above 60, the stock has closed above the upper Bollinger Band, and the MACD line is trading above both its signal line and the zero line. Shah recommends accumulating in the Rs 1,330–1,315 zone with a stop-loss at Rs 1,270, targeting Rs 1,410.
Two other stocks look positioned to extend gains: NHPC and Bosch. NHPC had been locked in a tight Rs 80–74 range since late November before breaking out on January 2 on strong volume. The RSI is rising and hovering near overbought territory, and the MACD histogram shows strengthening bullish momentum. Bosch has delivered a decisive breakout above a downward-sloping trendline, also backed by rising volumes. The Bollinger Bands, which had been narrowing, are now widening—a sign of volatility expansion and the start of a fresh trending move. The stock trades above key moving averages, reinforcing its bullish structure.
But not every stock is a buy. ITC has become a cautionary tale. The stock plunged more than 13 percent during the week following the government's announcement of a cigarette excise tax hike. On the technical front, the breakdown has been decisive: the stock fell below the key support zone of Rs 400–395 on heavy volume, a sign of aggressive selling pressure. The RSI has plunged to around 15, reflecting extreme bearish momentum. On the weekly chart, ITC has slipped below its 200-week exponential moving average and broken an upward-sloping trendline. Shah's advice is blunt: remain cautious. Entering at current levels risks catching a falling knife. Investors should wait for stability and clear reversal signals before considering fresh positions. Coal India, by contrast, continues to show strength after five consecutive weeks of gains. The stock broke a downward-sloping trendline on December 22, consolidated for four sessions with minor profit-taking, then delivered a strong follow-through rally on January 2, closing up 6.85 percent on heavy volume. It has closed above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling strong momentum and the possibility of extended upside. The Rs 395–400 zone now acts as strong support.
Citações Notáveis
Entering at current levels could be akin to catching a falling knife. Investors should wait for stability and clear reversal signals before considering fresh positions.— Sudeep Shah, SBI Securities, on ITC
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
You're saying the Nifty could reach 26,500 next week. What changed? The index was stuck in consolidation for weeks.
The momentum shifted over the last four trading sessions. The index rallied nearly 450 points from its recent low, and that move was backed by real participation—futures rollover rose to 72.29 percent, above the three-month average. The daily RSI pushed above 60. When you see that kind of breadth and momentum together, it's not noise.
And Bank Nifty is outperforming even more aggressively?
Significantly. It broke out of a falling channel last week with a nearly 2 percent rally and hit a fresh all-time high. The RSI is at 67.55, the MACD histogram turned positive, and the Stochastic oscillator is aligned with the uptrend. That's a clean technical picture. The targets are 60,600 and then 61,200.
You're recommending Glenmark and UNO Minda. What makes them different from the broader market move?
Both have just broken out of consolidation or reversal patterns on the daily chart. Glenmark broke above a six-session range with the RSI climbing to 67. UNO Minda broke above a downward-sloping trendline—that's a trend reversal signal. The volume surge on both moves adds conviction. They're not just riding the index higher; they're showing their own structural shifts.
But ITC is down 13 percent in a week. Why not buy it here if everything else is rallying?
Because the breakdown is too clean and too aggressive. It fell below key support on heavy volume, the RSI plunged to 15, and on the weekly chart it broke both its 200-week moving average and an upward trendline. That's not a dip to buy. That's a stock in distress. You wait for stability and reversal signals before you touch it.
What would stability look like for ITC?
A hold above a key support level, an RSI that stops falling and starts rising, maybe a close above a moving average that had been acting as resistance. Right now you're just seeing sellers. You need to see buyers show up first.