The dip is where the real money gets made
A US court's rejection of Trump-era tariffs has handed Indian equity markets an unexpected clearing of the skies, prompting technical analyst Ashish Kyal to forecast a sharp gap-up opening for the Nifty 50 toward the 26,000 threshold. Yet the deeper wisdom in his reading is not the surge itself but the pause that follows — the dip that separates the reactive from the deliberate. In the longer arc, the market's own internal geometry, its cycles, supports, and patterns, may prove a more enduring guide than any single geopolitical verdict.
- A US court striking down Trump tariffs has injected sudden optimism into Indian markets, with Nifty expected to gap up 350–400 points at Monday's open.
- The initial euphoria carries a trap — chasing the gap risks buying into a move that may quickly exhaust itself before a meaningful pullback.
- The 25,750–25,780 zone is the tactical battleground where patient traders are being told to position, targeting the Gann-defined level of 26,002.
- Bank Nifty is the market's engine, riding a 54-day time cycle toward 63,500, while Nifty IT is a fault line — its 31,000 support cracking under sustained selling pressure.
- Individual stocks like Granules India and KEI Industries are flashing breakout signals, offering conviction plays even as the broader index navigates uncertainty.
A US court's decision to strike down Trump-era tariffs has created what technical analyst Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy Advisors calls a pivotal setup for Indian equities. He expects the Nifty 50 to open sharply higher on Monday — a gap-up of 350 to 400 points — but cautions against chasing that initial move. The real opportunity, in his view, lies in the pullback that follows.
Kyal's strategy centers on the 25,750–25,780 zone as a tactical entry for traders targeting 26,002, a level derived from Gann analysis. The broader technical picture supports patience: the Nifty has refused to close below the prior week's low for three consecutive weeks, and has repeatedly bounced off the 25,361 Gann support level — signs of a market that has found its floor. Over the medium to long term, Kyal sees the index breaking above 26,370 toward fresh lifetime highs, with the tariff ruling having removed a significant headwind.
Not all sectors are moving in the same direction. Bank Nifty has been the standout performer, rebounding from 59,644 in early February and tracking a 54-day time cycle that Kyal expects to carry it toward 63,500 — provided gap support at 59,840 holds. Public sector banks have led the charge, with private banks yet to catch up. The Nifty IT index tells a starkly different story: a collapse from 40,000 to around 32,000 in three weeks has left the 31,000 support looking fragile, with a potential cascade toward 28,500 if it breaks.
Among individual names, Granules India has broken out of a triangle pattern with a target of 630, while KEI Industries has cleared a multi-resistance zone near 4,600 on strong volume. JSW Energy and NTPC both show constructive setups in the energy space, and Ashok Leyland continues its medium-term uptrend in autos. The common thread across Kyal's calls is discipline — waiting for the dip, reading the structure, and letting the market's own mechanics, rather than the news cycle, dictate the entry.
A US court's decision to strike down Trump-era tariffs has set up what one technical analyst sees as a pivotal moment for Indian equities. Ashish Kyal, founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors, expects the Nifty 50 to open sharply higher on Monday—a gap-up move of 350 to 400 points—before settling into a more measured pattern. The real opportunity, he argues, lies not in chasing that initial surge but in waiting for the pullback.
Kyal's playbook is straightforward: if the index dips toward 25,750 to 25,780 in the days ahead, that zone becomes a tactical entry point for traders targeting 26,002, a level he identifies using Gann analysis, a charting method that divides price movements into geometric proportions. The broader technical picture supports this view. Over three consecutive weeks in February, the Nifty has refused to close below the prior week's low, a sign of underlying resilience. The index has also bounced repeatedly off 25,361, another Gann level that now serves as critical support. These repeated bounces suggest the market has found a floor, even as it consolidates in a wide range since early February.
The medium-to-long-term outlook is more bullish still. Kyal expects the Nifty to eventually break above 26,370 and move toward fresh lifetime highs, a trajectory he says is supported by the technical structure itself. The US court verdict, by removing tariff uncertainty, has removed a significant headwind. But the real driver of sustained gains, he implies, will be the market's own internal mechanics—the patterns, cycles, and support levels that have governed price action for weeks.
Within the broader market, different sectors are telling different stories. Bank Nifty has been the clear outperformer, with the index rebounding from a low of 59,644 on February 6 to the 61,600 zone by the previous week. Kyal attributes this to a 54-day time cycle that Bank Nifty respects with unusual consistency; the index tends to gain momentum around cycle dates. He expects Bank Nifty to push toward 63,500 in the near term, provided the gap support at 59,840 holds. The rally has been led by public sector banks, while private banks have lagged—a divergence that may eventually close as the cycle progresses.
The Nifty IT index, by contrast, is in structural trouble. It has collapsed from 40,000 to around 32,000 in just three weeks, a sharp and sustained decline that suggests weakness in heavyweight constituents like Infosys and TCS. The 31,000 support level, which might ordinarily be expected to hold, looks vulnerable given the intensity of selling. A breakdown below that level could trigger a cascade toward 28,500. Kyal advises caution in this space until the index delivers a strong weekly close that signals stabilization.
Among individual stocks, Kyal sees two names worth watching in the coming week. Granules India has broken decisively out of a triangle pattern, a technical setup that often precedes sustained moves higher. He targets 630 for the stock, with 575 as immediate support. KEI Industries has similarly broken above a multi-resistance zone near 4,600 on healthy volume, another sign of conviction behind the move. In the energy and utility space, JSW Energy is reversing from a strong support zone near 429 and could reach 555 over the medium term, while NTPC has broken out after weeks of consolidation and is headed toward 400. Ashok Leyland, meanwhile, continues its medium-to-long-term uptrend within the auto sector, with 225 as a target as long as 202 holds as support.
The through-line in Kyal's analysis is patience. The tariff ruling has removed a major uncertainty and set up favorable conditions for a rally, but the market will likely test those conditions with a dip before committing to the upside. For traders and investors willing to wait for that dip and buy it, the technical setup suggests the risk-reward is tilted in their favor—at least in the near term, and more decisively over the medium to long term.
Citações Notáveis
The market has repeatedly found strong support near the Gann level of 25,361, bouncing back from this zone multiple times. This level now becomes a critical support for the near term.— Ashish Kyal, Founder and CEO, Waves Strategy Advisors
The US court verdict is definitely positive for India and the technical structure is already positive from medium to long term perspective for move to lifetime highs.— Ashish Kyal
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
So the US court ruling is the catalyst, but you're not saying buy immediately at the open?
Exactly. The gap-up is almost certain, but gap-ups often get sold into. I'm looking for a dip toward 25,750 to 25,780 as the real entry point. That's where the risk-reward becomes attractive.
And you're confident those levels will hold because of the Gann analysis?
Not just Gann. The market has bounced off 25,361 multiple times in the past few weeks. That's not coincidence—that's the market finding its floor. The technical structure is telling us where the buyers are.
Bank Nifty is outperforming. Is that a sign the rally is broad-based or just a sector rotation?
It's real outperformance, but it's been led by PSU banks. Private banks haven't fully participated yet. That's actually bullish—it means there's room for the rally to broaden as private banks catch up.
The IT index looks terrible. Is that a warning sign for the whole market?
It's a warning sign for IT specifically. The selling has been intense, and the heavyweights like Infosys and TCS are breaking down. I'd stay away until I see a strong weekly close that suggests the selling is exhausted.
You mentioned Granules India and KEI Industries. What makes them different from the broader market?
They've both broken out of consolidation patterns on volume. That's conviction. When a stock breaks out on volume, it's usually the start of something, not the end. The patterns suggest more upside ahead.
If the tariff ruling is so positive, why do you expect a dip at all?
Because markets don't move in straight lines. The ruling removes uncertainty, but traders still need to take profits, and new buyers need a reason to step in at lower prices. The dip is healthy. It's where the real money gets made.