The cushion had shrunk to five points in less than a month
En el tramo final de la segunda vuelta presidencial peruana, Pedro Castillo conserva la delantera con 41% frente al 36% de Keiko Fujimori, pero la ventaja que hace tres semanas era de 17 puntos se ha reducido a cinco. La encuesta de Datum Internacional, levantada tras el primer debate en Chota, revela que el impulso parece favorecer a Fujimori, aunque la mayoría de los votantes permanece fiel a su decisión original. Perú se aproxima a su elección de junio dividido no solo entre dos candidatos, sino entre dos geografías y dos visiones del país.
- La ventaja de Castillo se ha desplomado de 17 a 5 puntos en menos de un mes, convirtiendo lo que parecía una carrera decidida en una contienda abierta.
- El debate de Chota generó una percepción mayoritaria de victoria para Fujimori —44% frente a 32%— pero apenas movió el tablero: solo el 4% de los encuestados cambió su voto.
- Lima y el norte del país responden a Fujimori, mientras el sur y el centro del Perú resisten como bastiones de Castillo, exponiendo una fractura territorial profunda y persistente.
- Con un 12% de indecisos reales y un 11% inclinado al voto en blanco o nulo, el margen de error de 2.8 puntos convierte cada semana que resta en terreno potencialmente decisivo.
El 7 de mayo, una encuesta de Datum Internacional mostró a Pedro Castillo todavía al frente de la segunda vuelta presidencial peruana con 41%, pero con una ventaja que se achicaba con rapidez. Keiko Fujimori había escalado al 36%, recortando en dos puntos la distancia respecto a la medición anterior del 30 de abril. En apenas tres semanas, la brecha había pasado de 17 a 5 puntos.
El sondeo fue diseñado para capturar el efecto del primer debate presidencial, celebrado en Chota, Cajamarca. Tres cuartas partes de los encuestados dijeron haberlo visto o escuchado. Entre ellos, el 44% consideró que Fujimori había ganado el intercambio, frente al 32% que se lo adjudicó a Castillo. Sin embargo, el impacto real sobre las preferencias fue modesto: apenas el 4% declaró haber cambiado de opinión a raíz del debate.
La solidez del voto comprometido reveló matices importantes. El 74% de los simpatizantes de Castillo afirmó tener una decisión tomada, mientras que en el campo de Fujimori esa cifra bajaba al 67%. Los indecisos genuinos representaban el 12% del electorado, y el voto en blanco o nulo alcanzaba el 11%.
El mapa geográfico dibujó la fractura estructural del país. Fujimori dominaba Lima con el 48% y lideraba en el norte con el 45%. Castillo, en cambio, arrasaba en el sur con el 63% y en el centro con el 55%. En el oriente, la diferencia era mínima: 41% frente a 39%. Con el margen de error situado en 2.8 puntos y la tendencia favoreciendo a Fujimori, la recta final se perfilaba como genuinamente incierta.
Pedro Castillo entered the final stretch of Peru's presidential runoff with a commanding lead that was quietly eroding. A poll released by Datum Internacional on May 7th showed the teacher from Cajamarca still ahead at 41 percent, but his rival Keiko Fujimori had closed the gap to just five points, claiming 36 percent of voter preference. The shift was stark when measured against the previous survey from April 30th: Castillo had dropped two points while Fujimori had climbed two, a swing that suggested momentum was moving in her direction as the country approached its June runoff vote.
The timing of the poll was deliberate. Datum had conducted interviews on May 5th and 6th, immediately after the first presidential debate held in Chota, a town in Cajamarca. The survey was designed to measure whether that televised confrontation had moved voters. Three-quarters of respondents said they had watched or heard about the debate. Among those who had, the perception of who won was clear: 44 percent believed Fujimori had prevailed, while 32 percent thought Castillo emerged victorious, and 20 percent called it even. Yet the debate's actual impact on voting behavior appeared limited. Only 4 percent of respondents said the exchange had changed their mind, and another 8 percent were still deliberating after hearing the candidates' proposals.
The stability of voter commitment told a revealing story. Among Castillo supporters, 74 percent said they had made a firm decision, with 20 percent still weighing their choice. Fujimori's base was somewhat less solid: 67 percent had decided, while 26 percent remained undecided. Blank and spoiled ballots accounted for 11 percent of the sample, and true undecideds made up 12 percent—a shrinking pool as the election drew closer.
The geographic breakdown exposed the fundamental divide in Peruvian politics. Lima remained Fujimori's stronghold, where she commanded 48 percent support, nearly double Castillo's showing in the capital. But beyond the city, the map told a different story. In Peru's southern regions, Castillo dominated with 63 percent to Fujimori's 21 percent. In the center of the country, his advantage was even more pronounced at 55 percent versus 23 percent. The north was Fujimori's only competitive region outside Lima, where she led 45 percent to Castillo's 40 percent. In the eastern regions, the race was tightest: Castillo held 41 percent to Fujimori's 39 percent.
The trajectory over the preceding three weeks was what mattered most. When Datum had last surveyed voters in mid-to-late April, just after the first round of voting, Castillo had held a commanding 17-point lead over Fujimori. That cushion had now shrunk to five points. Fujimori had recovered more than ten percentage points in less than a month, a surge that suggested the race was tightening in ways that could reshape the final outcome. The poll was based on 1,203 interviews conducted in both urban and rural areas across the country, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. As Peru's voters prepared to make their final choice, the momentum appeared to be shifting, even if Castillo still held the advantage.
Notable Quotes
Three-quarters of respondents said they had watched or heard about the debate— Datum Internacional survey
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did the debate seem to matter so little if Fujimori was seen as winning it?
The debate itself didn't flip votes—only 4 percent changed their minds. But it may have given permission to people already leaning her way to feel more confident. The real movement happened over weeks, not hours.
So what was actually moving voters between April 30th and May 7th?
That's the harder question the poll doesn't fully answer. But Fujimori was climbing steadily. Something in the campaign environment was working for her, whether it was debate performance, messaging, or simply that undecideds were breaking her direction.
The regional split is striking—Castillo dominates the south and center, Fujimori owns Lima. Can he win without Lima?
He doesn't need Lima. He's winning everywhere else by massive margins. The question is whether Lima's weight in the national count is enough to close a five-point gap, and whether Fujimori can hold the north while gaining ground elsewhere.
What about those 12 percent who are still undecided this close to the vote?
In a five-point race, 12 percent undecided is everything. If they break for Fujimori, the race becomes competitive. If they stay home or split, Castillo likely holds on. That's where the real contest is.
Did the debate change the race or just confirm what people already believed?
Mostly confirmed. Fujimori's supporters saw her win. Castillo's supporters saw him win or tie. The real movement was happening underneath—in the slow accumulation of support over time, not in one night's performance.