Strait of Hormuz reopens as Trump and Iran edge toward nuclear deal

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil passages, reopened to shipping on Friday after months of tension that had sent global energy markets into turmoil. The announcement came from both Washington and Tehran nearly simultaneously, signaling that the two countries had moved past the brink of outright conflict and were now edging toward something neither had seemed possible weeks earlier: a negotiated settlement.

The breakthrough appeared tied to a separate ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israel had agreed to halt its bombardment of Hezbollah, Iran's closest regional ally. Trump publicly denied the connection, posting on Truth Social that Israel was now prohibited from bombing Lebanon and that "Enough is enough." Yet the timing was unmistakable. Iran had made clear from the start that any deal involving the strait would have to include protection for Lebanon. The US and Iran had begun demining the waterway together, a practical step that suggested both sides were committed to making the passage work.

But the devil, as always, lived in the details. Trump claimed Iran had agreed never to weaponize the strait again. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, offered a more cautious version: ships would be allowed through, but only if they followed routes designated by Tehran and coordinated their passage with Iranian authorities. Ship operators were left in a fog. Richard Meade, editor of Lloyd's List, the shipping industry's bible, captured the confusion plainly: "Everybody is currently looking at each other and asking the same question: What does this mean?" No one knew whether owners would need approval from Iran's Revolutionary Guards, whether tolls would be demanded, or what had actually changed.

The markets, however, had already made their judgment. Oil prices fell more than 11 percent to $88 a barrel on the news. The Dow surged over 1,000 points. The reopening of the strait meant the end of Iran's ability to strangle global oil supplies, and investors were pricing in a world where energy flowed freely again. Trump took credit, praising Pakistan as a mediator and several Arab states for their role. He was less generous with NATO, posting that the alliance had called asking if it could help. "I TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY," he wrote, calling them a "Paper Tiger" that had been "useless when needed."

Britain and France saw things differently. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that the two countries would lead a multinational mission to protect shipping in the strait, framing it as defensive and focused on reassurance. The UK would host a military planning conference in London the following week to work out the details. The announcement suggested that Western powers remained skeptical of Iran's commitment and wanted insurance against another closure.

The real negotiation, though, was still ahead. Trump's team was preparing to discuss a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran, one that could involve Tehran handing over more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief and a US pledge never to attack Iran again. The Iranian leadership believed it had fought the Americans and Israelis to a stalemate. With the strait as leverage, Tehran thought it could now extract concessions that had been impossible before. But the country was also desperate. The US naval blockade was pushing Iran's economy toward collapse, and without sanctions relief and access to frozen assets, no deal would hold.

Trump denied reports that the US would pay Iran money for what he called "nuclear dust"—the remnants left by American bombers that had struck Iranian nuclear facilities. Such a payment would essentially recreate the nuclear agreement his predecessor Barack Obama had negotiated and Trump himself had torn up in 2018. Iran's foreign ministry countered that uranium transfers had never even been discussed in negotiations, and that Iran would not agree to hand over enriched material to anyone. The country was willing to suspend uranium enrichment for a period of years, but it refused to limit its ballistic missile program or reduce support for regional militias like Hezbollah and Hamas. Without sanctions relief, without unfrozen assets, without guarantees against future attacks, Iran would sign nothing.

The ceasefire had already unsettled Israel and some Arab allies. The Gulf states had opposed the war but had told Trump it should not end without severely weakening the Iranian regime. Instead, the conflict appeared to have strengthened Iran's new leadership, headed by Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Supreme Leader who had been killed in an Israeli airstrike at the war's start. Netanyahu said Israel would continue targeting Hezbollah, though it would require "skilful diplomatic manoeuvring." In Lebanon, President Aoun spoke of a "new phase," a transition from ceasefire to permanent agreements. The country was shattered, and Aoun was trying to hold it together while navigating demands that Lebanon recognize Israel and formally end a state of war that had lasted since 1948. The weekend talks would determine whether any of this held.