We can fight the pandemic and unemployment
Desde 1999, o FIES financiou o sonho universitário de milhões de brasileiros em instituições privadas — mas a pandemia transformou esse sonho em dívida impagável para cerca de um milhão de pessoas. Em fevereiro de 2022, o governo federal anunciou um perdão de até 92% das dívidas em atraso, reconhecendo que o colapso do emprego havia quebrado um contrato social entre o Estado, os estudantes e o futuro do país. A medida não é apenas fiscal: é o reconhecimento de que sistemas construídos sobre promessas de mobilidade precisam ser sustentados quando a realidade os desfaz.
- Mais da metade dos contratos do FIES estavam inadimplentes, acumulando uma dívida superior a R$ 9 bilhões — um sistema de financiamento educacional à beira do colapso.
- Cerca de um milhão de estudantes carregavam dívidas médias de R$ 40 mil sem emprego, muitos deles desempregados desde o início da pandemia, sem perspectiva de quitação.
- O governo anunciou descontos de 92% para inscritos no CadÚnico e de 86,5% para os demais inadimplentes, com o saldo restante parcelável em até 10 vezes de R$ 200.
- A operacionalização depende de aplicativos da Caixa e do Banco do Brasil, com negociações abertas a partir de 19 de fevereiro — mas alcançar um milhão de pessoas pobres e dispersas pelo país é o verdadeiro desafio.
- O anúncio foi emoldurado politicamente como uma correção moral: o Estado que socorreu bancos e empresas finalmente voltava sua atenção aos estudantes esquecidos.
O sistema de financiamento estudantil do Brasil havia entrado em colapso silencioso. Mais da metade dos contratos do FIES — programa federal criado em 1999 para financiar até 92% das mensalidades em faculdades privadas, que concentram 85% das vagas do ensino superior no país — estavam em atraso. O saldo devedor havia ultrapassado R$ 9 bilhões. Em fevereiro de 2022, o governo anunciou uma resposta: perdoar 92% da dívida para os inadimplentes inscritos no CadÚnico, o cadastro federal das famílias mais vulneráveis, e 86,5% para os demais. O saldo remanescente poderia ser pago em até dez parcelas de R$ 200.
Por trás dos números havia rostos concretos. Aproximadamente 850 mil pessoas inscritas no CadÚnico deviam ao FIES; outras 150 mil inadimplentes estavam fora desse cadastro. Juntas, formavam um contingente de cerca de um milhão de estudantes com dívidas médias de R$ 40 mil — muitos desempregados, muitos desde o início da pandemia, que havia quebrado a cadeia de pagamentos que sustentava o programa.
O presidente Bolsonaro enquadrou o anúncio como uma correção moral, evocando a imagem de um jovem de 30 anos, endividado e sem emprego, atravessando o isolamento social sem amparo. O ministro Paulo Guedes foi além: disse que o Estado havia socorrido bancos e empresas durante a crise, mas esquecera os estudantes — e que agora corrigia esse desequilíbrio, prometendo ainda R$ 330 bilhões em novos investimentos.
A execução da medida ficaria a cargo de Caixa Econômica Federal e Banco do Brasil, cada um com aplicativos dedicados para simulação e renegociação das dívidas. As negociações teriam início em 19 de fevereiro. O perdão era real — mas chegar efetivamente a um milhão de pessoas, muitas delas pobres e com acesso limitado à internet, espalhadas por um país continental, seria o teste verdadeiro de se a promessa se tornaria alívio.
Brazil's student loan system was drowning. More than half of all FIES contracts—the federal education financing program that has existed since 1999—had stopped being paid. The unpaid balance had swollen to over nine billion reais. On February 10th, 2022, the government announced a rescue plan: forgive 92 percent of the debt for borrowers registered in CadÚnico, the federal social registry for the poorest households. For everyone else in default, the discount would be 86.5 percent.
The numbers tell the story of a system in crisis. About 850,000 people registered in CadÚnico owed money to FIES. Another roughly 150,000 defaulters fell outside that program. Together, they represented around one million students whose educations had been financed with borrowed money they could no longer repay. The average debt per person was forty thousand reais. Many were unemployed. Many had been unemployed since the pandemic began.
President Jair Bolsonaro framed the announcement as a moral correction. He pointed to a young person, thirty years old, carrying a forty-thousand-real debt with no job, and asked the room to imagine that person's situation during lockdown. He had criticized stay-at-home policies throughout the pandemic, and he used this moment to say his government had been right to prioritize both disease control and employment. "We can fight the pandemic and unemployment," he said. The government, he suggested, had finally remembered the students that banks and corporations had not forgotten.
The mechanics of relief were straightforward but required infrastructure. Students with more than 360 days of missed payments could access the discount. The remaining balance—what was left after the forgiveness—could be split into up to ten installments of up to two hundred reais each. Two banks would handle the renegotiations: Caixa and Banco do Brasil. Each would offer a dedicated app for borrowers to simulate their debt and arrange payment. Caixa's tool would be available immediately on its website and through the Caixa Tem mobile app. Banco do Brasil's application would launch on February 19th.
The program itself had a long history. Since 1999, FIES had allowed students to finance up to 92 percent of their tuition at private institutions—and private schools offered about 85 percent of all higher education seats in Brazil. Students paid the rest after graduation. The system had worked for decades, but the pandemic had broken the repayment chain. People lost jobs. People stopped paying. The debt accumulated.
Economy Minister Paulo Guedes used the announcement to make a broader point about government priorities. He said the state had rescued banks and corporations during the crisis but had left students behind. Now, he suggested, it was correcting course. He also promised 330 billion reais in new investments, including in 5G infrastructure, and predicted the economy would grow. The message was that the government could afford both compassion and growth.
The actual work of relief would happen through apps and bank portals, a bureaucratic process that required borrowers to know the program existed and to take action. The government urged all defaulters to seek information and negotiate their debts. But reaching a million people scattered across a country the size of Brazil, many of them poor and without reliable internet access, would be its own challenge. The forgiveness was real—the implementation would test whether the system could deliver it.
Citas Notables
All defaulters should seek information and negotiate their debts— Education Minister Milton Ribeiro
The government saved banks and corporations, but nobody remembered the students— Economy Minister Paulo Guedes
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did this take so long? The FIES program has existed since 1999. Why announce debt relief only now, in 2022?
The pandemic broke something that had been working. When people lost jobs, they stopped paying. The debt accumulated faster than anyone expected, and suddenly you had nine billion reais in unpaid loans. The government had to act.
But the president framed this as a moral choice—saying his government remembered students when others didn't. Does that ring true?
It's complicated. Yes, the relief is real and will help a million people. But the framing conveniently ignores that his government allowed the crisis to deepen for two years before acting. The moral choice would have been earlier.
What about the difference between the 92 percent discount for CadÚnico people and 86.5 percent for others? Why the gap?
CadÚnico registrants are the poorest. They have the least ability to pay anything at all. The bigger discount acknowledges that. It's means-tested forgiveness—the people with nothing get more help.
The remaining balance gets split into ten payments of up to two hundred reais. That's still money people have to find. How realistic is that?
For someone who was carrying forty thousand reais in debt, two hundred reais a month is manageable. But it assumes they have stable income. If they're still unemployed, even that becomes a burden.
The implementation happens through apps on bank platforms. Does that worry you?
It should. A million people need to know about this, find the app, navigate it, and complete the negotiation. Digital access isn't universal in Brazil. Some people will fall through the cracks.
What's the real cost to the government?
That's the question no one answered clearly. If you forgive ninety-two percent of nine billion reais, someone is absorbing that loss. The government didn't spell out whether it's coming from the budget, being deferred, or pushed onto the banks.